Teams with 1st Loss Week 14:
Texas Christian
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 14:
Southern California
Teams with 3rd Loss Week 14:
Coastal Carolina
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season:
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Week 6: 6.25% (1 of 16)
Week 7: 40% (6 of 15)
Week 8: 33.3% (3 of 9)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.33% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 13 25% (1 of 4)
Week 14: 33.33% (1 of 3)
Number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
2: Michigan, Georgia
-TCU's loss leaves us just Michigan and Georgia.
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of Bowl Season:
1: Michigan/Georgia
Week 14 Thoughts:
-Sorry this didn't come out for so long. Things are incredibly hectic on my end.
-Just like that another regular season is done and it is bowl time. Most the stakes and results everyone already knows, so let's look at some of the results in a wider perspective and review a bit some of the things that were a bigger deal this year.
-Once again, our general guideline on the list held true. We had four undefeated or 1-loss teams and those four teams are our four playoff bowl teams. We did not end up with any 1-loss teams from Group of 5 conferences, although there is a fair bit of evidence most would have lost out to a 2-loss Tulane in the end. This is the 2nd time we have a 2-loss team get the auto-bid.
-The PAC-12 continues its seemingly never-ending ability to beat up on each other. Most 1-loss PAC-12 Champ would have beaten Ohio State for the 4th spot (USC certainly would have), but too many close teams on the top keeps stopping the conference from getting a 1-loss champ. The ACC's time of struggle has been shorter, but the drop of Clemson without anyone else picking it up enough is having a shorter term similar effect.
-We haven't seen many huge upsets in the CCGs in the playoff era and that continued this year. We did get two minor ones this year, which did not effect TCU much (#3 either way), but did USC.
-Just how big an effect did South Carolina have this year? Tennessee would have almost certainly beaten out Ohio State for #4. A 1-loss ACC champion Clemson probably would have too (although there is some argument there).
-Alabama wasn't far from making it back in, but the 2nd loss is still too much. With 12 teams in the playoff two years from now, they'd still be in and one of the favorites to win it all most likely.
Bowl Thoughts:
-We have one potential final game between undefeated teams and that is if Georgia and Michigan both win their bowls. If either lose, then the final game between undefeated teams this season was Ohio State vs. Michigan.
-Cure Bowl: 2-loss UTSA vs. 2-loss Troy: This game is already over, but I still want to mention it. It was Conference USA champ vs. Sun Belt champ. It is a game that can indirectly effect who gets the New Years 6 next year as it can change perceptions. Next year UTSA will be in the American and with the loss of Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston, the Sun Belt will be much more a threat to take the New Years 6 spot.
New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. 2-loss South Alabama: Not really huge stakes beyond the bowl, but South Florida finished with 2-losses in the Sun Belt and is only a small favorite here against Western Kentucky which will remain in Conference USA. It would be good for the Sun Belt to take this and, for Western Kentucky, it would be nice to knock out a top Sun Belt team after not getting invited to rejoin.
Alamo Bowl: Texas vs. 2-loss Washington: The PAC-12 is not in the playoff bowls. One thing that might help next year would be a good end to this one. Texas is the favorite in this bowl, but it is close.
Orange Bowl: 2-loss Clemson vs. 2-loss Tennessee: This is definitely the Orange Bowl. Both finished with disappointments that kept them out of the College Football Playoff. Winning this though is still an opportunity to end with a major bowl win. Losing now, after the disappointing ends to the regular season, will further cast a cloud on what were close to great years.
Sugar Bowl: 2-loss Alabama vs. Kansas State: Kansas State ended up as Big 12 Champs and had a fantastic year. This is bigger for them than for Alabama. For Alabama though, winning does matter. They had a lot of close games and two close losses. The Tide haven't always done great in non-playoff bowls, but, at a point when it appears the Saban era might be slipping a bit (relatively speaking only), a win would do some good.
Fiesta Bowl: Undefeated Michigan vs. 1-loss TCU: Michigan is a touchdown favorite here, but this a TCU team which won close games all year, favored or not. They finally lost an overtime game in the Big 12 Championship, but beat all 9 other Big 12 teams before that. On the other side, you have a Michigan team where this was the focus this year. Last year, the focus was beating Ohio State and getting here. This year, the expectations are higher.
Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Ohio State: Georgia is the unquestioned #1 and playing in their home state. They have had trouble a few times this year, but finished strong vs. everyone. They are the favorite to win the national championship, but the line on this game is less than it is in potential games vs. TCU or Michigan. This is not the best Ohio State has come into the championship/playoff, but oddly, this is actually the role it usually has done best with. The pressure and expectations are off (something that killed them in the Michigan game). If they manage to win, this will feel kind of like 2002 and 2014, teams coming in with flaws, but with the expectations firmly on the other side. The Ohio State teams who came in more dominating have generally actually struggled more.
Cotton Bowl: 2-loss USC vs. 2-loss Tulane: USC is disappointed to be here, while Tulane is ecstatic. The Trojans were possibly one win vs. Utah (in either game) from going to the College Football Playoff. For Tulane, this is their first New Years Six appearance after beating out departing powers Cincinnati and UCF. The line right now is 2.5 points to USC.
Rose Bowl: 2-loss Penn State vs. Utah: I think both teams are pretty happy to be in the granddaddy of them all. This is the 2nd straight appearance for Utah who lost a classic Rose Bowl last year to Ohio State. For Penn State, they couldn't beat Ohio State or Michigan, but beat everyone else and were playing great at the end. This feels like a Penn State on the upswing.
Going Forward:
-The vast majority of people want playoff expansion and I know the benefits. For one, I think it would have made most the conference championship games more interesting. On a personal level though, I have doing these kind of lists and following the sport in this context for what is getting closer to the better part of 2 decades. I am going to miss a lot of what the sport is with the wider playoff. To me, it is fun watching the regular season knowing how much is at stake for even the top teams each week. Ohio State didn't know the loss to Michigan wouldn't be too much to overcome. Tennessee was playing for #4 till their loss, but watching for losses across the country. So was USC, Oregon, Clemson, TCU, and even a 2-loss LSU. I like watching week 1 and 3 and 8 and 11 games and knowing they can throw out teams good enough to win it all or be the miracle someone else needs to get in. It was kind of unique to college football and while I will adjust to what the sport is changing into, I will lament it here just a bit.
I don't know if I'll continue with these threads once we go to 12 teams, but I think I'll probably play around with it still. Regardless, we have one last year with 4 teams and we'll see if the guidelines we have seen play out so far continue.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 1, total: 2
Michigan
Georgia
1-Loss Teams: Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 0, total: 2
Ohio State
Texas Christian
2-loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 2, total: 10
Penn State
UTSA
Washington
Alabama
Troy
South Alabama
Tulane
Tennessee
Clemson
Southern California
