Teams with 1st Loss Week 14:
Texas A&M
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 14:
Georgia Tech
Teams with 3rd Loss Week 14:
San Diego State
Michigan
Teams with 1st Win Week 14:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Week 8: 45.5% (5 of 11)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.3% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 25.0% (1 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 13: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 14: 33.3% (1 of 3)
Number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
1: Texas A&M lost to Texas removing them from the list. Ohio State and Indiana both won meaning we get one last game between undefeated teams next week in Indianapolis.
Week 14 Thoughts:
-So much to go over this week. Let's start with one last thing on the winless list. UMass lost to Bowling Green meaning they do finish the season winless. Their first season back in the MAC has been a disaster, but they should be better from here.
-From an at large playoff perspective, last week, we had the following as the last few in (in order): Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama. The first two out were BYU and Miami (FL). Everyone of those teams won, but there could definitely be some jumping based on results from last week and the order this week will be important with only Alabama and BYU playing another week. Two big things to watch:
1. The committee has said they take head to head into stronger consideration when teams are grouped together. So far, Notre Dame, with stronger losses (close against two playoff or near playoff teams early in the year) and look against its schedule, has stayed in a group above Miami. If the hurricanes win over Pitt this week was enough of a boost compared to Notre Dame's over Stanford to put them in the same group though, you could see the order here rearranged so that Miami is ahead of Notre Dame. It is theoretically possible that could even happen next week rather than this (if those games changed perspective of either teams schedule), but I think that would be unlikely given the only team either of them played who is in a championship is Boise State and that would slightly help Notre Dame. In short, if Notre Dame stays above this week, they probably remain that way.
2. Who are the #9 and #10 teams this week? As things currently stand, the #10 is the last at large in. If BYU beats Texas Tech next week though, there is a good chance both make the playoff which would push out the current #10 team. If Alabama is the #10 team, they will make it in with a win in the SEC Championship still (or could theoretically even more up with a close loss) which would push out the #9. In short, no one below this weeks #8 should probably feel completely safe.
On the other side of the playoff perspective, we have our last two automatic qualifiers. When assuming the Group of 5 was just getting one in, the American has long been the front runner and nothing changed there. They have locked in their spot pretty much in fact. What has changed is with the ACC. I have said it was unlikely for awhile, but as things have turned out in the ACC, overall 5 loss Duke won the tiebreakers over the other two loss ACC teams to advance to the ACC Championship to play Virginia. If Virginia wins, the ACC certainly gets its champ in automatically. If Duke wins though, there is a definite chance that it is not one of the 5 highest conference champions. The American champ (Tulane/North Texas) will definitely be above. A 12-1 James Madison might be as well and I wouldn't rule out a 11-2 UNLV being able to beat them out either. The committee may still opt for Duke over them given winning the ACC will be seen as a bigger deal, but I would lean against it, especially for James Madison.
-Looking at conferences now, in the Big Ten, Ohio State finally ended their losing streak vs. Michigan and advances to play Indiana in the last game of undefeated teams for the season. Oregon beat Washington to secure their spot in the playoff and a 1st round home game. Iowa beat Nebraska again which I think will give Iowa the Citrus or Outback (or whatever it is called now) with Michigan in the other (unless bowls are going for different teams in for some reason; note: former PAC-12 teams continue in the old PAC-12 bowls this year). Penn State won a close one over Rutgers, getting them to bowl eligibility despite their mid season issues.
-The SEC was filled with close games, but most the favorites one. The big exception was Texas A&M who cannot quite get the Texas monkey off their back. They will still be fine for the playoff though with either a bye or a 1st round home game (I would lean to the latter). Georgia kept things closer with Georgia Tech again, but pulled off the win and gets a rematch vs. Bama. Alabama, for their part, had a battle in the Iron Bowl, but won to keep playoff hopes alive and now might have to win in Atlanta to make the playoff. Ole Miss finished strong in the Egg Bowl with their last game with Lane Kiffin. I do wonder if the committee will ding them a bit after losing enough of the coaching staff. Oklahoma seemed surprisingly close with LSU, but won in the end. Vanderbilt had a good win over instate rival Tennessee (the first time both teams were ranked while playing), but it is going to be too little this year to get them in given the stronger competition (last year they almost certainly would have made it). Kentucky fired Stoops after losing to Louisville to end the year. I am not sure I like that move, but do get it. I would lean to Texas and Vanderbilt getting the Citrus and Outback Bowls.
-In the Big 12, Texas Tech dominated West Virginia increasing their chance of an at large even if they lose next week. BYU started slow vs UCF, but were fine after that. Utah finished with 2 losses, but will almost certainly be just outside the playoff (I would lean them or USC for the old PAC-12 spot in the Alamo; maybe against Houston). In the Territorial Cup, Arizona completed its quite strong finish beating Arizona State. Oklahoma State finished the year 0-9 in conference which still feels kind of astonishing.
-The ACC continued its trend of most that could go wrong at the top of the conference, would go wrong. SMU was a heavy favorite over Cal and setting up SMU vs. Virginia in the ACC Championship would have at least guaranteed the ACC a spot in the playoff. As things turned out though, SMU lost that game and, given other results, Duke rather than Miami or one of the others 2-loss teams is playing for the championship. Best case scenario for the ACC right now is to have Virginia win, Texas Tech win, and the committee to put Miami ahead of Notre Dame to give the conference two in. The worst case is to have Duke win, put James Madison or UNLV higher than Duke and have no one in the playoff at all. Meanwhile, Miami did win strongly over a ranked Pitt, Virginia has risen to the highest level in football we have seen them in a very long time, and the conference split its rivalry games with the SEC. Louisville and Clemson looked definitely better than their SEC counterparts and Georgia Tech kept it relatively close with Georgia.
-The top of the American all won, which leaves ranked Tulane vs. 1-loss North Texas for the championship. Under last years rules, the winner would have had a bye to the quarterfinal bowls if Duke wins the ACC. Regardless, the winner is the playoffs. Beyond those games, Navy is 9-2 going into the Army/Navy game after beating Memphis. South Florida finished its impressive, but disappointing season (they were the front runner for the playoff bid) with a dominating win over Rice.
-James Madison won easily (and how they win matters if it comes down to comparing to Duke) and hosts the Sun Belt Championship. On the other side, we saw Troy beat Southern Miss to win the western division. Texas State finished its last game in the Sun Belt before joining the new PAC-12 with a win and bowl eligibility. Georgia Southern, Arkansas State, and Louisiana also got bowl eligibility this week.
-New Mexico beat San Diego State in overtime. This would have put them in the Mountain West Championship for sure if Boise State had lost as well. The Broncos came back to win against Utah State in a close one though. With UNLV also winning, this left us with a four way tie atop the Mountain West. They had to wait till computer formulas came out Sunday to see who would be in the championship. As it turns out, it is UNLV at Boise State. Regardless, it was an exciting end to the season in the last season before several members depart for the new PAC-12.
-Western Michigan beat Eastern Michigan to finish as the only 1 loss team in the MAC and advance to the championship. Ohio, Toledo, and Miami all won their games (formerly two loss Central Michigan eliminated by losing to Toledo). This tiebreaker was won by Miami (despite losing to both of them). No additional teams made bowl eligibility to end the season. Northern Illinois played its last game as a member of the MAC with a loss to Kent State.
-In a battle between 1 conference loss teams, Jacksonville State won a very close one vs. Western Kentucky to advance to host the Conference USA Championship Game. They will play Kennesaw State who beat Liberty in overtime and also finishes 7-1 in conference. Delaware won to finish 6-6 in their first year in the conference, but I do not believe is yet bowl eligible being an FBS transition team.
Week 15 Thoughts:
-We have our last game between undefeated teams this week, one game between two 1-loss teams, and one game between a 1-loss team and a 2-loss team.
Big Ten Championship: undefeated Indiana vs. undefeated Ohio State: Indiana has very few conference championships despite being in the Big Ten a very long time. They had been more competitive in recent years, but no one really saw this quick rise coming. Ohio State is coming off a long sought after Michigan win and might be slightly more distracted entering this game. Both teams are likely getting byes in the playoff, but the winner goes in at #1 and is playing in the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champs. Both quarterbacks are also the Heisman favorites so look for this game going a long way to determine that too. Ohio State enters a 5.5 point favorite.
Big 12 Championship: 1-loss BYU vs. 1-loss Texas Tech: Texas Tech won the last meeting between the two. They will go into the game ranked around #5 and I would lean to making the playoff win or lose. With a win though, they stand a chance at going straight to the quarterfinal bowls or would likely have the #5 spot which would put them up against the lowest seeded team in the first round. BYU is ecstatic to be here and has won a lot of close games. They are 13.5 point underdogs and will have a lot of other teams rooting against them as BYU winning will likely knock out someone. This was a great ending for the Big 12.
SEC Championship: 1-loss Georgia vs. 2-loss Alabama: Alabama won this game earlier in the year, but enter the rematch as small underdogs. Georgia will certainly get a bye to the Sugar Bowl with a win. Alabama might well get that too if they win, but the stakes are higher for the Tide. Should they lose, they stand a chance at not making the playoff at all should BYU win in the Big 12 (although those results will be known before this game). Regardless, if they remain last one in this week, I wouldn't want to chance anything.
American Championship (Friday): 1-loss North Texas at Tulane: In a fitting end to what has been a very strong year for the American, the winner is in the playoff. Tulane is the only currently ranked American team (we'll see if updates Tuesday night) and North Texas is one of two Group of 5 conference teams with a single loss. North Texas is a small favorite.
ACC Championship: Duke vs. 2-loss Virginia: The ACC's issues this year has primarily been that there is too much parity among its top teams. Both teams are excited to be here though. Virginia was #18 last week and likely higher this week. Winning this, they won't be in the top 12, but won't be that far from it. Duke, long known as a basketball school, would love to take the whole thing in football after years where their program has been steadily improving. James Madison and UNLV, should they win before this game though will be rooting for Duke to win, but not convincingly. Virginia is a 3 point favorite.
Sun Belt Championship (Friday): Troy at 1-loss James Madison: The Sun Belt has never had a BCS/NY6/playoff spot. They are the only current conference without one. The conference is going to want James Madison to win and win big and hope it gets help from Duke. James Madison is a 22.5 point favorite in a championship game here!
Mountain West Championship (Friday): 2-loss UNLV at Boise State: These two teams won the 4 team tiebreaker. UNLV has a very small chance at the playoff with a win. Should Duke win the ACC and Jacksonville State at least struggle, the committee could decide it likes a 2-loss Mountain West champ more than either. To do that, they likely would need everything to go right and look very impressive against Boise State. Boise State, for their part, is trying to go out one more time as Mountain West champs. Even without the small playoff chances, the conference would much rather someone who will be in the conference next year win this year. The new PAC teams meanwhile want momentum building to the start of the conference. Boise State is a 3.5 point favorite.
Conference USA Championship (Friday): Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State: Both won last week to set this up and both have only lost once in conference. The line is razor this in this game with Jacksonville State only a 1.5 point favorite.
MAC Championship: Western Michigan vs Miami: Western Michigan was the only team to finish with one loss in the MAC and is playing for the title for the first time since 2016. Miami is in their 3rd MAC Championship in a row. Western Michigan is a 2.5 point favorite.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big Ten: 2, SEC: 0, total: 2
Indiana
Ohio State
1-Loss Teams: American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, total: 8
Georgia
James Madison
Oregon
North Texas
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Brigham Young
Texas A&M
2-loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 1, total: 10
Virginia
Miami (FL)
Navy
Tulane
Utah
UNLV
Alabama
Oklahoma
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC:1, total: 1
Massachusetts
