eams with 1st Loss Week 14:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 14:
Ohio State
Miami (FL)
Teams with 3rd Loss Week 14:
Tulane
Liberty
Clemson
Teams with 1st Win Week 14:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Week 9: 20% (2 of 10)
Week 10: 37.5% (3 of 8)
Week 11: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 12: 25% (1 of 4)
Week 13: 66.7% (2 of 3)
Week 14: 0% (0 of 1)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 1
-Only Oregon can finish the season unbeaten.
Week 14 Thoughts:
-Lot of good action during modern rivalry week. Let's start with the winless teams list one last time. Unfortunately, Kent State lost and thus they finish the season on the winless list. I always prefer there being no one on the list in the end.
-Ohio State losing at home to Michigan has brought many Buckeye fans to call for Ryan Day's head. While that is unlikely (and I think would be unwise), the 4th straight loss, in a year they were heavy favorites, brings back memories of the 90s to what are getting to be older Buckeye fans. The Big Ten will now have to accept a #1 vs. #3 match-up instead of #1 vs. #2 for the Big Ten Championship. They will almost certainly still have 4 playoff teams in Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana and hosting two games in the quarterfinals is quite possible (more on that below).
-In the ACC, both Clemson and Miami lost to South Carolina and Syracuse respectfully. For Miami, this likely ends their playoff hopes and will leave them just outside. Clemson is no longer a threat for an at large, but they are going to the ACC Championship against SMU. SMU finished their first year in the ACC unbeaten and with only 1 out of conference loss to a good BYU team. The question now is if Clemson wins next week, will SMU get in the playoff or not? It would be very close. The flip side of possibly getting two in for the ACC is that if Clemson wins, the conference might get two in, but their champ stands a decent chance of being the lowest ranked conference champ which means they would be out of the bye spot to the quarterfinal bowls. Best case for the conference is probably to have Clemson win a tight one and have Boise State lose. If you are an Alabama fan, you want SMU winning this. South Carolina's rooting interest will depend on Tuesday rankings. More on that below.
-All four of the top teams in the Big 12 won. This means Iowa State and Arizona State win the tie-breakers and will play each other for the Big 12 Championship. Arizona State was picked dead last in the preseason poll, but is now the favorite to win it all and go to the playoff. The conference at almost no point this year has gone how it was expected to. While it will only have one playoff team, it has been exciting to watch. Ideally, the conference wants UNLV and/or Clemson to win to hopefully put the conference in position for a bye to the quarterfinal bowls.
-The SEC was very close to seeing Georgia go into the SEC Championship with 3 losses, but they had a late comeback vs. Georgia Tech and a win in 8 overtimes. Texas beat Texas A&M in the renewal of that rivalry to join Georgia in Atlanta. Both of them, along with Tennessee, who beat Vanderbilt, will be in the playoff likely regardless of next week. Alabama beat Auburn and South Carolina beat Clemson. Both of them will be hoping for what will probably be the last at large spot in the playoff. Alabama definitely wants SMU winning the ACC so it is not in the running. I do think they could beat them out as the committee could say Alabama beat South Carolina who beat SMU, but it is not a foregone conclusion. I think Alabama is a stronger contender than South Carolina here, but the South Carolina win over Clemson might carry just enough extra weight to put them over Bama. We'll have a pretty strong idea come Tuesday. If Alabama is still ahead of Clemson, the tigers probably actually need to root for Clemson to win big in the ACC. Their only hope at that point would be to make the Clemson win look as good as possible.
-Notre Dame beat USC to finish the regular season 11-1. They will be in the playoff and will host.
Group of 5 Playoff Race (and other races):
-Boise State and UNLV both won to set-up a top 25 match-up for the Mountain West Championship. Thanks to Tulane losing in the American, I think either winner here goes to the playoff. The Big 12 and Clemson both want UNLV winning this. Army will be rooting hard for a small and sloppy UNLV win.
-In the American, Tulane lost the battle of two loss teams to Memphis, but are still playing Army this week for the conference championship. They would have been in position to possibly take the playoff spot with a UNLV win, but that is out now. Army, for their part, could still, but I think they really needed to beat a ranked Tulane which won't happen now. My guess is either Mountain West champ would beat out Army, but if Army can win big and UNLV wins a close one, there is a narrow opening.
-In a battle to go to the MAC Championship, Miami beat Bowling Green. They will face Ohio University who beat Ball State.
--Louisiana-Lafayette beat instate rival Louisiana Monroe to advance to the the Sun Belt Championship Game. Marshall beat James Madison in double overtime to join them.
-Liberty could have joined Jacksonville State in the Conference USA Championship Game with a win, but lost a close one to Sam Houston. With Western Kentucky beating Jacksonville State, they are are in and we will get a rematch between those two next week.
Byes to the Quarterfinal Bowls:
-Looking at the byes to the quarterfinals, the Big Ten and SEC Champs definitely get them and will likely host the Rose and Sugar Bowls regardless of winners. SMU will definitely get a bye with a win and I could see them in either the Fiesta or the Peach. That largely comes down to how the committee approaches this and maybe SMU preference. In the 4 team era, they gave the highest seed a choice, but traditional affiliation is supposed to matter now and without a set match-up, the committee might also be more inclined to place #3 and #4 in what is collectively better even if #3 might have a slight preference otherwise. The ACC has a longtime affiliation (although on a secondary level and without SMU) with the Peach and the Big 12 had one for the BCS era with the Fiesta. I don't know if those really matter now (one was replaced with the Sugar and the other was for team not making the BCS games; both have been gone for a decade). I would lean to them only being small factors.
-The bigger deal would be that it would be natural for Boise State/UNLV/Arizona State to go to the Fiesta and SMU probably isn't hugely impacted either direction, so if any of those teams are involved, I see SMU going to the Peach. If Clemson wins and makes the top 4, they would definitely go to the Peach with the Big 12/Mountain West champ going to the Fiesta.
-I personally would lean to Arizona State jumping Boise State with a win over Iowa State and a Big 12 title, but it would be close. I do not think Clemson or Iowa State would. Both will likely beat out UNLV though. If it comes down to Clemson vs. Iowa State for the last bye, it could go either way.
Home Games:
-Being seed 5 through 8 means you host a home game. Notre Dame is on that list for certain. Texas, with a loss would be for sure, but I am not certain on Georgia. Oregon will be for sure if they lose the Big Ten Championship. The order between Ohio State and Tennessee will matter for a spot. The higher of the two is likely locked in. The lower of the two will be hoping for an Oregon win and for Penn State to fall below or a Texas win and Georgia to fall below (Tennessee is hurt by their loss to Georgia in that comparison though).
Note: The committee reevaluates every week based on full results. The Ohio State/Tennessee order could switch between weeks if the results of the championship games effect how you look at their resumes.
Week 15 Thoughts:
-We only have conference championship games this week. We have one game between an undefeated and a 1-loss team.
Conference USA Championship Game: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Friday): This is a rematch from last week, but with a lot higher stakes. Western Kentucky won by 2 at home in a must win game for them to get here. This week, Jacksonville State is at home. Jacksonville State is a 4 point favorite.
Mountain West Championship Game: 2-loss UNLV at 1-loss Boise State (Friday): Winner is likely in the playoff. Boise State is more likely than not getting a bye with a win. Army is rooting for a close UNLV win. Clemson, Arizona State, and Iowa State are rooting for UNLV period. Boise State is a 3.5 point favorite.
American Championship Game: Tulane at 1-loss Army (Friday): This lost a little luster with Tulane's loss to Memphis, but Army can still make it with a big win and a lot of help. Even if not, it is neat seeing Army here in their first year in a conference in a long time and Tulane looks poised to continue to be a top team outside the power 4 conferences. Tulane is a 4 point favorite.
Big 12 Championship Game: 2-loss Iowa State vs. 2-loss Arizona State: Winner is the playoff and the loser is out. Arizona State will have easier time getting the bye, but Iowa State might as well with help in the Mountain West or ACC. Arizona State was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in preseason polls but is a 2.5 point favorite now.
MAC Championship Game: Ohio vs. Miami (OH): Both finished the MAC season 7-1. We get an all Ohio match-up this year. Miami is a 2.5 point favorite.
SEC Championship Game: 2-loss Georgia vs. 1-loss Texas: Winner is off to the Sugar Bowl. The loser is will likely host a home game in the first round (although Georgia would be on the edge). It would be amazing year for Texas if can finish off their first year in the SEC with a revenge win against Georgia who beat them bad earlier at home. Texas is a favorite this time by 2.5 points.
Sun Belt Championship Game: Marshall at 2-loss Louisiana-Lafayette: The only conference we can still say it is one division vs. the other. The western champ is a 4.5 point favorite.
Big Ten Championship Game: 1-loss Penn State at undefeated Oregon: No old school Big Ten teams in this match-up. We have the big east coast school vs. the Pacific-Northwest. The winner is off to the Rose Bowl as the #1 or #2 seed. With a loss, Oregon will host a playoff game. With a loss, Penn State would be borderline between hosting and traveling. Oregon is a 3.5 point favorite.
ACC Championship Game: Clemson vs. 1-loss SMU: SMU's dream first year in the ACC continues. They are in the playoff with a bye if they win. If they lose, they will sweat it out with Alabama and South Carolina for the last spot. Clemson, for their part, must win to get in. Alabama, the Mountain West, and the Big 12 will be hoping for a Clemson win.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big Ten: 1, total: 1
Oregon
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total 7
Southern Methodist
Boise State
Notre Dame
Texas
Penn State
Indiana
Army
2-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 10
Memphis
Arizona State
Brigham Young
Iowa State
UNLV
Georgia
Tennessee
Louisiana-Lafayette
Ohio State
Miami (FL)
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Kent State
