Teams with 1st Loss Week 12:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 12:
Alabama
Teams with 1st Win Week 12:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Week 8: 45.5% (5 of 11)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.3% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 25.0% (1 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 3)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
2: No changes this week. Our remaining possible undefeated teams are: Ohio State/Indiana and Texas A&M.
There is only one remaining possible game between undefeated teams in the regular season and it is Ohio State vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Week 12 Thoughts:
-Last second, I decided to add the 2-loss list. I wasn't going to do that but decided I had enough time and that it added something.
-The ACC's chances of its worst case scenario dropped this week with Virginia beating a now 5 loss Duke. Ranked Georgia Tech and Miami also won. Miami has a chance as an at large, but they need help they are running out of time to get. Odds are they need to win the ACC to get in, but they have two conference losses. Georgia Tech is the only other team with a chance at an at large, but that would require them to win out to the championship game including beating Georgia. For the ACC race, Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU, and Pitt all have one conference loss and they are not playing each other. Georgia Tech would win any tie breakers with a win in their last conference game against Pitt. Virginia wins most tiebreakers if they win their last vs. Virginia Tech.
-The Big 12's ranked teams all won except Cincinnati losing to Arizona. Cincinnati is not out of it, but they join 3 other teams (Utah, Houston, and Arizona State) with 2 conference losses and behind 1 conference loss BYU and Texas Tech. The latter two completely control their destiny. Should either lose, it could go a lot of ways, but Utah wins a lot of scenarios. Looking at at large scenarios, Utah or BYU could make it there with enough chaos, but the strongest case would be if Texas Tech won out and then lost the championship (more on that below). I think the conference has better chances at two than the ACC, but the odds are also against them at this point given everything else going on around the country. Still, bubbles teams elsewhere are going to want to root for Texas Tech to lose before the championship or win the championship.
-The biggest news for the Big Ten was Michigan surviving against Northwestern and USC coming back to beat Iowa. That leaves both of them with 1 conference loss (and 2 overall each). Both have ways to slide into the Big Ten Championship as does 1-loss Oregon. Indiana is off next week so they are a win vs. Purdue from locking everything up. Ohio State has Michigan in two weeks and would be unlikely to make the championship with a loss there. Tiebreakers wouldn't favor Michigan over their west coast counterparts if they win out even with a win against the Buckeyes. For three teams in the playoff, Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon control their destinies. USC and Michigan I don't see as locked if they win out without a Big Ten title, but would be in the running. I am guessing the conference would prefer the three top teams right now to keep winning.
-Texas lost to Georgia, but Oklahoma beat Alabama for the 2nd year in a row. This leaves the conference with 6 teams with 2 or fewer losses with no games left between those teams. I doubt all of them win out, but if they did we are probably talking one of them left out (Vanderbilt being bottom of list). For the conference title, all two conference loss teams were eliminated as neither Texas A&M nor Georgia can finish with more than 1 conference loss now. Texas A&M goes to Atlanta if they beat Texas in two weeks, but a loss likely pushes them out. Alabama is still most likely in the best place for the other spot if they beat Auburn but tiebreakers could be close and Georgia has the next best spot. Ole Miss needs upset help for SEC Championship hopes, but is still in it. For the playoff, Alabama is now likely on the outside looking in again if they lose the Iron Bowl now. Ole Miss, Georgia, and Oklahoma likely control their destinies, but also almost certainly cannot lose another. Texas A&M is pretty much locked in and Georgia probably can afford one loss.
-Notre Dame keeps winning and almost certainly is in fine by winning out, but out with a loss.
-All the above said, I see one potential big head scratcher for the committee. Say the Big Ten top three win out (outside the Big Ten Championship), Notre Dame wins out, and the SEC favorites all win. In the Big 12, Texas Tech keeps a ranking around where they are going into the conference championship game, but losses a close one in a rematch vs. BYU. Based on how the committee didn't seem to want to lower teams for CCG losses much last year, Texas Tech could well stay in, but that would have to come at the expenses of someone else dropping out. Would that be leaving out Notre Dame, Oregon, or reduce the SEC teams down to 4 (maybe an Ole Miss or Oklahoma)? Regardless of who it is, the team out is probably someone who right now thinks they control their destiny. All that said, everything would have to go one way for it to happen which is unlikely.
-Group of 5 Playoff Race:
South Florida has gotten the most attention for the playoff spot this year after their early season wins against Boise State and Florida. Their loss to Navy this week makes that unlikely. The American now has 1 overall loss team North Texas in the best position, but tied in the standing with fellow 1 conference loss teams Navy, Tulane, and East Carolina. I think North Texas is an easy lock if they win out for the playoff spot. Should Tulane or Navy win out, I would lean to them getting the spot too although there would be arguments over it. In particular, Navy could be hurt by not having an extra game yet (the decision will come before the Army/Navy game).
The Sun Belt has never taken the New Years 6 spot, but James Madison is still sitting with one loss and beat Appalachian State bad last week. I think they need help from the American, but it is possible the only team they still need to lose one is North Texas (although I do not lean that way). They can put pressure on that point by keep winning convincingly.
San Diego State beat Boise State to take sole position of first place in the Mountain West. That leaves the 2-loss Aztecs the slight favorite to win the Mountain West. I lean against them beating out a 1-loss James Madison and likely need a decent bit of help in the American, but they are not quite out of it yet. That said, they probably need a 3 loss team winning the American and a James Madison loss (or at least not looking good down the stretch). For the Mountain West Championship Game, only San Diego State has one conference loss, but five teams have two conference losses.
The MAC is out of the playoff race most likely, but the leading teams by odds not long ago Ohio and Miami have both lost. This leaves Toledo and Western Michigan the new favorites in what has been a very competitive MAC race. Only Western Michigan is left with a single conference loss and we have 5 teams with two conference losses.
Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State to take sole first position in Conference USA. The betting favorite to win the conference though is 1 conference loss Western Kentucky.
Week 13 Thoughts:
-We have no games between undefeated and 1-loss teams. We do have one game between a 1-loss and a 2-loss team.
2-loss USC at 1-loss Oregon: The loser is effectively eliminated from Big Ten title hopes. At this point, I would lean to either losing putting them out of the playoff. Oregon does control their destiny, but USC might need a bit more help. Should Ohio State lose to Michigan, this game is enormous and the winner could well be in the Big Ten Championship. Oregon is a 9.5 point favorite.
Miami (OH) at Buffalo (Wednesday): Two 2-loss MAC teams. The loser is effectively eliminated from conference title chances. Buffalo is a slight favorite.
Hawaii at 2-loss UNLV (Friday): Two 2-loss Mountain West teams and, like the MAC, at least one two loss team will be in the championship. The line is close.
Missouri at 2-loss Oklahoma: An old Big 8/Big 12 match-up. Oklahoma cannot afford a slip-up after their big win last week if they want in the playoff. They are 9.5 point favorites.
2-loss Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech: Miami likely will not make it as an at large, but with some upsets are in the hunt at least. Winning big would help.
Louisville at SMU: Surprisingly based on a few weeks ago, but it is SMU in the conference race here. They need help, but mostly they need to win. They are a small favorite.
Washington State at 1-loss James Madison: James Madison is still very much in the playoff race. They cannot afford a loss to a hot and cold Washington State team though.
Missouri State at Kennesaw State: A battle of two 1 conference loss Conference USA teams.
Kentucky at 2-loss Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt could well be left out even with two losses in the SEC (my usual benchmark). Winning big at least won't hurt.
TCU at 2-loss Houston: Houston is still sitting with 2 conference losses. They need a lot of help for tiebreakers, but are not out of conference race yet. They are small favorites.
Pitt at 1-loss Georgia Tech: Winner remains tied atop the ACC while the loser drops to two conference losses. Georgia Tech is a 2.5 point favorite.
2-loss Western Kentucky at LSU: Western Kentucky is more than a three touchdown underdog and currently has two losses. That said, should they win, they will at least be in the conversation for Group of 5 playoff spot.
1-Loss BYU at Cincinnati: BYU controls Big 12 destiny with a win, but not a loss. Cincinnati needs to win and get a bit of help to get back in conference race.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 3
Texas A&M
Indiana
Ohio State
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, total: 8
Georgia
James Madison
Oregon
North Texas
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Georgia Tech
Brigham Young
2-loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 2, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 1
Virginia
Navy
Tulane
Utah
Houston
Southern California
Michigan
Western Kentucky
San Diego State
UNLV
Alabama
Oklahoma
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC:1, total: 1
Massachusetts
