Teams with 1st Loss Week 15:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 15:
Penn State
Texas
Southern Methodist
Teams with 3rd Loss Week 15:
UNLV
Iowa State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Week 9: 20% (2 of 10)
Week 10: 37.5% (3 of 8)
Week 11: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 12: 25% (1 of 4)
Week 13: 66.7% (2 of 3)
Week 14: 0% (0 of 1)
Week 15: 0% (0 of 1)
Number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 1
-Oregon finishes the regular season unbeaten.
Week 15 Thoughts:
-And just like that, outside of Army/Navy, the regular season is over. It goes faster every year.
-No matter how much it is not supposed to be a be-all end-all, the number of losses continues to be a huge indicator of how the committee (along with the polls before them), put in teams. In the BCS era, they only left out undefeated AQ teams when they had 3 undefeated AQ teams and only put in a 2-loss team once. In the 4 team CFP era, they only left out an undefeated P5 team when putting it in would mean leaving the SEC out and never put in a 2-loss team. This year, I started these threads guessing a good guideline would be to assume all undefeated and 1-loss teams in power 4 conferences would be in and 2-loss teams in the Big Ten and SEC would be in. In the end, we got all 2-loss or better SEC and Big Ten teams and any 1-loss ACC or Big 12 teams would have been fine. For the last spot, they had a choice of a 3-loss ACC team or a 2-loss SEC. They choose the fewer loss team in this case (although 2-loss BYU wasn't as high).
-Being a conference champ only helped a little in the ratings. Clemson did not jump SMU even with the head to head win, an ACC Championship, and Georgia winning the SEC making that loss look stronger.
-The idea of generally having the 4 power conference champs in the quarterfinal bowls didn't work year 1. My guess is it usually will if allowed to along awhile, but we will definitely get years like this.
-We have the chance for a traditional looking Rose Bowl. If Ohio State beats Tennessee, we will have Oregon vs. Ohio State in what will feel like Big Ten vs. PAC-10 even if Oregon is now the Big Ten champ.
-We have three colder weather schools hosting in late December. There is currently a small dispute between the Big Ten and NBC as it wasn't properly made known that some Big Ten teams have the right to refuse night games in November. We now have Ohio State hosting a night game on the first day of winter.
-The result of the ACC Championship was bittersweet for the ACC. Having SMU go from a non-power conference to ACC Champ would have been a bit embarrassing and having only one team in was less than ideal. Now they have a rising, but not yet champion SMU and two teams in. The flip side of that is Clemson and SMU are the #11 and #12 teams in and if all goes as expected, there won't be ACC schools in the New Years 6 bowls.
Week 16 and Bowls Thoughts:
-1-loss Army vs. Navy: Army showed this year that the academies might actually make the playoff down the line. If things were a bit different this year, they would have made it (maybe a simple as replacing Notre Dame with a more beatable opponent). Thinking of this game specifically, if we get a change in playoff structure, this game might not be alone in this week. For now though, this weekend is all about Army vs. Navy and the Heisman Trophy.
Frisco Bowl: 2-loss Memphis vs. West Virginia: Memphis finished the year ranked. It would be great for the American to have Memphis finish ranked going into next year.
Cure Bowl: Ohio vs. Jacksonville State: One of only two bowls that is guaranteed to feature a conference champ vs. conference champ. MAC vs. Conference USA.
CFP 1st Round and Sugar Bowl: 1-loss Indiana at 1-loss Notre Dame: An instate (although rarely played) game with the winner going to the Sugar Bowl to play Georgia. In some ways, these 1st round games are kind of like old days where you could have a really good season and still not go to a bowl. This one has a nice regional flair here without being an in-conference game or rematch. Georgia continues on top of the SEC and the SEC is basically at home in the Sugar.
CFP 1st Round: 2-loss SMU at 2-loss Penn State and Fiesta Bowl: Both lost their conference championship games at basically the same time last week. Now, the winner will play Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Fiesta is a bowl that Boise State has done very well in.
CFP 1st Round and Peach Bowl: Clemson at 2-loss Texas: ACC Champ vs. almost SEC Champ, but this still feels more Big 12 vs. ACC. This is the only 1st round game outside the north. Winner will go to the Peach Bowl against Arizona State. That location might help Clemson if they can get by Texas. ACC would really like at least one of their two teams to make it to New Years.
CFP 1st Round and Rose Bowl: 2-loss Tennessee at 2-loss Ohio State: Tennessee has the best odds of winning national championship by a decent bit among teams on the road for the 1st round. The path is very rough though. The winner of this will get Oregon in the Rose Bowl. If that is Ohio State, we get an Ohio State vs. Oregon rematch in the Rose Bowl that will feel very much Big Ten vs. PAC-10.
Orlando Bowl (Pop Tarts Bowl): Iowa State vs. 2-loss Miami (FL): A ranked ACC vs. Big 12 game. It would help either team to possibly be ranked going into next season and perception of the Big 12 vs. ACC is important.
Alamo Bowl: 2-loss BYU vs. Colorado: Using existing PAC bowl deals, we get a game that is actually in-conference Big 12 now. It's a good game though. It's between the two teams tied for first, but who didn't make the Big 12 title game. A few weeks ago, this looked like the most probable Big 12 title game.
Independence Bowl: Marshall vs. 1-loss Army: Sun Belt vs. American champs. Army still has another game before here, but will be ranked as there are no more polls. These games do matter to set perception of relative strength between non-Power 4 conferences to at least a small degree.
Outback Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan: Probably will be the highest rated of the non-CFP bowls. Both big names. Michigan, despite a disappointing season, comes in with some excitement after the Ohio State win sets expectations for things improving. Alabama very disappointed to be left out. We'll see if those differences matter.
Citrus Bowl: South Carolina vs. Illinois: No bowl has been hurt by the continued rise of playoff teams more than this bowl. It would regularly outperform BCS bowls, but now is down to the #15 and #20 teams in the country. That said, both teams had fantastic season with fanbases who are happy to be here. Winner likely enters season ranked and ends a special season with goals of more going forward.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big Ten: 1, total: 1
Oregon
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big Ten: 1, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 0, independents: 1, total 4
Boise State
Notre Dame
Indiana
Army
2-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 0, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 0, total: 10
Memphis
Arizona State
Brigham Young
Georgia
Tennessee
Ohio State
Miami (FL)
Penn State
Texas
Southern Methodist
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Kent State
