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Topic: Rank these teams

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bayareabadger

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #140 on: December 15, 2020, 11:11:55 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:13:06 PM
schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule


Maybe Cincinnati is great.  But we still wouldn't know it, even if COVID hadn't screwed everyone's schedules up.  The lone P5 game the Bearcats scheduled originally was Nebraska. 


I mean shit.  If you don't schedule (much less play) a team in the preseason top 50, what's with all the bitching and moaning about fairness?
Everyone - the media, the fans, their OWN fans would obliterate a USC or Michigan or Auburn if their toughest scheduled game was vs Nebraska in 2020.  It would be impossible, thanks to P5 conference scheduling.  But imagine if Notre Dame came up with an independent schedule whose toughest test was Nebraska. 
It would be a joke.  What's the difference?
Cool, we can eliminate A&M. Sounds great. 
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MaximumSam

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #141 on: December 16, 2020, 06:29:43 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:40:46 PM
OMFG.


ISU...............Cinci...........Coastal Silliness
Louisiana.....Austin Peay?.....@Kansas
@TCU..........Army.............Campbell?
OU..............S Fla...............Ark St
TexasTech....@SMU.............@Louisiana
@Okla St.......Memphis.........GA Southern
@Kansas.......Houston..........@GA State
Baylor............ECU...............South AL
K-State...........@UCF............App St
@Texas...........-------............@Texas St
WV.................-------............BYU
----...............--------...........Troy

I'm going to bold the "decent and tougher" games.  You know, the games an average team might lose.  The games a UCLA or Kentucky or a Virginia might lose. 
Then, I'll mark in red the crap-fest dead weight games.  Then we'll all open our eyes big and wide and see what's there.  And then the Bearcats can go away. 
.
Cincinnata?
Fewer games.
3 crap games
1 game against a team with a pulse.  ONE
.
Meanwhile, ISU is playing 8 teams that could easily beat it.  Yeah, it lost to 2 of them, BUT IT BEAT 6 OF THEM.  6 wins over genuine threats vs 1. 
.
The Myrtle Beach Spring Breakers have a crap schedule, too, obviously, and shouldn't be taken seriously.  And aren't. 
I think the most hilarious thing is that just last year, Clemson went to the playoffs despite playing a terrible schedule.  The ACC was worse than the AAC if you removed Clemson (and of course you must do that when looking at their schedule).  It was historically bad.  Of course, no one questioned Clemson getting into the playoffs, because we aren't idiots.  Unless of course you are in the wrong conference, and then we must question everything, no matter how little sense it makes. 

Not to mention, OSU's schedule sucks this year too.  Apparently they should be out. Since the actual results of games no longer matters, we can just pick whatever teams played the toughest schedule.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2020, 06:49:46 AM by MaximumSam »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #142 on: December 16, 2020, 10:51:19 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 15, 2020, 11:11:55 PM
Cool, we can eliminate A&M. Sounds great.
Yeah, you haven't seen the SOS rankings, have you.  LOL
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #143 on: December 16, 2020, 10:55:13 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on December 16, 2020, 06:29:43 AM
I think the most hilarious thing is that just last year, Clemson went to the playoffs despite playing a terrible schedule.  The ACC was worse than the AAC if you removed Clemson (and of course you must do that when looking at their schedule).  It was historically bad.  Of course, no one questioned Clemson getting into the playoffs, because we aren't idiots.  Unless of course you are in the wrong conference, and then we must question everything, no matter how little sense it makes.

Not to mention, OSU's schedule sucks this year too.  Apparently they should be out. Since the actual results of games no longer matters, we can just pick whatever teams played the toughest schedule.
Clemson had a track record of recent greatness.  Tell us about Cincinnati's track record.  And despite a weak-ass ACC, they still played Texas A&M and South Carolina OOC and Virginia in-conference.  3 more threatening teams than anyone Cincinnati has played this year.


There is no argument here.  You're providing zero substance.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #144 on: December 16, 2020, 11:01:41 AM »
Presuming no upsets, Bama and OSU are in, plus the ACC champ.  Upsets are unlikely.  It would be fun if every team got upset (Bama/OSU) to see what happened.

But it's unlikely.  Clemson/ND winner is in, and then a pastry for Bama to hammer like a RHSC.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #145 on: December 16, 2020, 11:06:26 AM »
If everyone is upset, I think nothing changes.  The same 4 that would get in do get in.  A&M is a literal place-holder.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2020, 11:30:20 AM by OrangeAfroMan »
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bayareabadger

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #146 on: December 16, 2020, 11:27:05 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 10:51:19 AM
Yeah, you haven't seen the SOS rankings, have you.  LOL
OAM, this is the strangest thing. You talk about wanting to look past the surface so often. You whined and moaned when rankings stacked up losses. If they were that, they were instantly not acceptable. You get bent out of shape when someone dares to say a small school guy's NFL success can tell us about the numbers he piled up in college.

And then you come with this. This flattened out number, and tell me it tells me something about what you've said is a vital part of a team's playoff case. By this logic, if Cincy signs up to get shithoused by Bama, well that's a net positive, because it's gonna boost that SOS. Golly Gee. Isn't that convenient.

Right now, going 9-1 against that awesome SOS means one top-30 win and two top-55 wins per SP+. Two wins against winning teams. If that's the mark of a strong SOS, it can eff right off. Maybe A&M gets in on the strength of "We beat UF and had Bama on the schedule." At times, you've argued it's about letting the "best teams" in, and even on that measure, A&M ain't that close to top five.

(It's also perhaps the most CFB world view that the most important thing is the one a team has to rely on other to do, but such is life)
« Last Edit: December 16, 2020, 11:32:44 AM by bayareabadger »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #147 on: December 16, 2020, 11:33:26 AM »
I was just saying you were wrong about A&M's SOS this season.
I agree with you that it's not very impressive, but we're comparing it to the norm.  This season, it is impressive, as it's ranked highly.  In a vacuum, A&M's schedule is crap.  But when half the teams played fewer than 8 games (just a random guess to make the point), an unimpressive 9-game schedule becomes impressive in the context of this season.
.
So no, stating the fact that A&M's 2020 SOS is ranked highly doesn't go against any prior points I've made.  It's just stating what is.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

847badgerfan

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #148 on: December 16, 2020, 11:35:22 AM »
Rutgers and Illinois almost always have great SOS.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #149 on: December 16, 2020, 11:39:06 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 16, 2020, 11:35:22 AM
Rutgers and Illinois almost always have great SOS.
Right, because they can't play themselves, lol.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #150 on: December 16, 2020, 11:42:37 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 11:06:26 AM
If everyone is upset, I think nothing changes.  The same 4 that would get in do get in.  A&M is a literal place-holder.
I think OSU would drop out.  Bama is probably still in.  ND would be in obviously.  Then you would have controversy.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #151 on: December 16, 2020, 11:43:02 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 11:06:26 AM
If everyone is upset, I think nothing changes.  The same 4 that would get in do get in.
In a normal year where "undefeated heading into the B1GCG" meant 12-0 I would agree with you.  In this odd year where Ohio State is undefeated heading into the B1GCG at just 5-0, I don't think the Buckeyes can get in with a loss but in your completely chaos hypothetical maybe.  I also think that Clemson with two losses is a stretch.  Their best win would be over a Miami team that just got curb-stomped by UNC.  

Assume all P5 CG's result in upsets:
  • UF over Bama:  UF is 8-2 SEC Champs, Bama is 10-1.  
  • ND over Clemson:  ND is 11-0 ACC Champs, Clemson is 9-2.  
  • NU over tOSU:  NU is 7-1 B1G Champs, tOSU is 5-1.  
  • ISU over OU:  ISU is 9-2 B12 Champs, OU is 7-3.  
  • Ore over USC:  Ore is 4-2 P12 Champs, USC is 5-1.  

Notre Dame would get the #1 seed for sure.  After that . . .

Contenders for 2-4:
  • 10-1 Bama with a blowout win over aTm and only loss in SECCG to UF.  
  • 9-2 Clemson with two losses both to ND and best win is Miami, FL.  
  • 5-1 tOSU whose best win is IU.  
  • 8-1 aTm with a blowout loss to Bama, best win is UF.  
  • 9-2 UF with a win over Bama but a loss to aTm and a loss to a sub .500 team.  
  • 7-2 UGA with best win over Auburn.  Losses were to good teams but neither was close.  
  • 9-0 Cincy best win is . . . Tulsa?
  • 12-0 CCU best win is . . . BYU or Louisiana?  
  • 7-1 Northwestern best win is tOSU, loss is to a horrible MSU team.  

I think Bama would pretty clearly be in.  

I think aTm and UGA are completely out because they wouldn't even be top-2 in their own conference behind UF/Bama.  

I don't think Cincy or CCU gets there because the schedules are too soft.  

After ND an Bama I'm thinking the other two come from UF/Clemson/tOSU so you could be right but I just don't see it.  I don't think you can take 2-loss non-Champion Clemson while leaving a 2-loss SEC Champion out.  Thus, I think UF is in and the fourth spot might be between tOSU and Clemson.  

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bayareabadger

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #152 on: December 16, 2020, 11:54:10 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 11:33:26 AM
I was just saying you were wrong about A&M's SOS this season.
I agree with you that it's not very impressive, but we're comparing it to the norm.  This season, it is impressive, as it's ranked highly.  In a vacuum, A&M's schedule is crap.  But when half the teams played fewer than 8 games (just a random guess to make the point), an unimpressive 9-game schedule becomes impressive in the context of this season.
.
So no, stating the fact that A&M's 2020 SOS is ranked highly doesn't go against any prior points I've made.  It's just stating what is.
If that's impressive, it is not worth considering. We can consider something else, something that might tell us something.

If it's schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule, we should either find a metric that tells us something, not just shout out stuff we don't believe in. Shoot, A&M's schedule was probably much tougher if you're the No. 40 team in the country. But we ain't talking about that team. 
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MaximumSam

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #153 on: December 16, 2020, 12:06:49 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 10:55:13 AM
Clemson had a track record of recent greatness.  Tell us about Cincinnati's track record.  And despite a weak-ass ACC, they still played Texas A&M and South Carolina OOC and Virginia in-conference.  3 more threatening teams than anyone Cincinnati has played this year.


There is no argument here.  You're providing zero substance.
My argument is games should matter. SOS is a great tiebreaker. I can buy that you give teams a mulligan when playing a tough schedule. But your argument and the committee are saying it literally doesn't matter what Cincy or anyone in the wrong conference does on the field. This makes the games pointless. 
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