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Topic: ELA November 23 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 19, 2019, 02:50:45 PM »

#8 Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-1, 9-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-7, 2-8)

NOON - Evanston, IL - ABC

No Northwestern, you get zero credit for beating UMass. This is still the same mess of an offense that we thought they were a week ago. In fact, in allowing "only" 45 points, UMass' scoring defense average actually improved. In fact only Akron and FIU (who scored 44) have scored fewer than 45 points against UMass , and Northwestern's margin of victory of 39 was actually less than in 4 of UMass' previous 5 games (56 to Army, 42 to Liberty, 48 to Louisiana Tech and 44 to FIU). Hell, Northwestern was only up 7-6 until they scored their first offensive touchdown with 7:59 left in the second quarter, and it was 24-6 into the 4th. This offense is absolutely dismal. The Gopher defense did their part last Saturday, holding Iowa to just 290 yards, controlling the clock, and limiting Iowa to just 3 points over the final 36 game minutes. The problem was they found themselves blitzed, down 20-3 after just three drives. From that point on? Iowa had 83 total yards in two and half quarters. The problem was Minnesota's offense simply couldn't produce like it had the week before against Penn State. This team should win every game where they hold the opponent to 23 points or less. Tanner Morgan still threw for 368 yards, but needed 36 passes to do so, nearly double the 20.1 attempts he had been averaging in Big Ten play. The reason was an Iowa run defense that stepped up and looked like their 2018 selves, and held the Gophers to just 2.1 ypc on the ground. They were still able to complete their splash plays through the passing game, that they've made their bread and butter this year, they just simply had no balance, and struggled in the kicking game. The offensive line needs to step it up as well, after surrendering 6 sacks, among 13 tackles for loss last week. The Wildcats don't have nearly the line that Iowa does, but Joe Gaziano at times can be a one man wrecking crew. He is one sack away from setting the Northwestern record, and has recorded at least 1 in 8 of Northwestern's last 10 Big Ten games.

MINNESOTA 35, NORTHWESTERN 7

Michigan State Spartans (2-5, 4-6) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-7, 2-8)

NOON - Piscataway, NJ - FS1

Both teams got blown out last weekend, but Rutgers showed some fight, while Michigan State showed none, at least none within the rules of the game. Is that enough to overcome what should still be a fairly large talent discrepancy? Michigan State is the only Big Ten school to never lose to Rutgers in either football or men's basketball, so I guess they still have that to play for. Even sneaking into the Quick Lane Bowl, as awful as that would be, may not necessarily help, if there is going to be massive coaching changes, as those practices mean little. Considering how many seniors this team has though, how many even bother playing in that game, so at least you get some younger kids some game run, against a team with a pulse (Florida State?). Rutgers has at time given Michigan State fits in this game, including last year, when a similarly .500 Michigan State team needed a touchdown with 4 minutes left to hold off a similarly awful Rutgers team. While last year Michigan State had an elite defense, and a horrific offense, this year they defense looked plenty good early, but has begun backsliding hard, while early season efforts against Arizona State and Northwestern look much less impressive at this point. But what is lost in the slight improvement on offense, and slight regression on defense, is how the special teams has completely cratered, now ranked #111 in SP+. The Spartans (#40) are actually the only team ranked that low in any of the three phases ranked anywhere in the top 50. How much credit are we giving to Rutgers' fight though? They tallied 14 points and 145 yards of offense against the Buckeye reserves, once down 49-7, with Ohio State having a 5 (hopefully for them) game gauntlet coming up. Through the first 2.5 quarters, Rutgers had 7 points (on a 33 yard drive after a fumble) and 86 total yards of offense. What they did do surprisingly well, was limit the Buckeyes rushing game, which had been leading the Big Ten at 6.5 ypc, holding them to "only" 4.9 ypc, and being the first team all year to hold Ohio State without a run of 20 or more yards, for what is the nation's most explosive run offense. The Spartan offense has looked ok against the lesser Big Ten teams they've faced, averaging 35 ppg against Northwestern, Indiana and Illinois. I think they can get about there again, and unlike Illinois, I'm not certain Rutgers can break 35, even if the Spartan defense continues to play uninspired.

MICHIGAN STATE 35, RUTGERS 16

Illinois Fighting Illini (4-3, 6-4) at #17 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-3, 7-3)

NOON - Iowa City, IA - BTN

Iowa channeled that Kinnick after dark magic again last week, to ruin Minnesota's season. They need to avoid looking ahead in what is a suddenly dangerous matchup with Illinois. The Hawkeyes have won all 5 matchups as division rivals, in the 2014 realignment, with 2008 being Illinois' lone win in the series since 2000. 1999 is their lone win in Iowa City in the past 24 years. Last year Iowa ruined Illinois' Senior Day with a 63-0 thrashing, so now it's Illinois' turn to return the favor. As with every game against Illinois, it starts with hanging onto the ball. Illinois is leading the nation in both turnovers created and turnover margin, which has helped them take a -1.0 ypp differential in Big Ten play, and somehow work a winning record out of it. The only three teams with a worse ypp differential (Maryland, Northwestern and Rutgers) are a combined 1-20 in the conference. During this current 4 game winning streak, they've been outgained by 105 yards by Wisconsin, 5 yards by Purdue, and 121 yards by Michigan State. Even in a 28 point win over Rutgers, they only outgained the Scarlet Knights by 28. I know turnovers are mostly luck, but at what point do we just say "it's one of those years"? The Hawkeyes had 6 turnovers, and were -5 against Michigan and Penn State, but are otherwise +7 in Big Ten play, with only 2 turnovers. Even with those two games, Iowa ranks #8 nationally in giveaways per game, and would be #2 nationally behind only Oregon State otherwise. Illinois is letting everyone run on them, so if Iowa is going to get their ground game going against anyone, it's here. The secondary has been improved, but is still susceptible to the big play, allowing 13.2 yards per completion, #104 nationally, and only Rutgers is worse among Big Ten teams, although because they hold opponents to 57% completions, and are tied for 3rd in the conference in interceptions, their overall pass defense numbers look ok, 10th in the Big Ten in pass defense efficiency. Iowa's up and down run defense looked against Minnesota like their 2018 selves, and I just don't trust Brandon Peters to win you games. He threw for 369 yards against Michigan State, but completed just 52% of his passes, and hit on a couple big plays. If Iowa can avoid those gaffs, I don't see Peters completing enough to compensate, nor the running game doing anything more than they did in East Lansing.

IOWA 28, ILLINOIS 14

#13 Michigan Wolverines (5-2, 8-2) at Indiana Hoosiers (4-3, 7-3)

3:30 - Bloomington, IN - ESPN

Is a trap game a trap game, if it is identified as a trap game as soon as the schedule is released? Indiana has given Michigan fits recently, but hasn't been able to break their losing streak to the Wolverines. Combine that with being slotted between rivals Michigan State and Ohio State on the schedule, and yeah, we've known about it. If someone says "hey, watch out for that trap door, right there," and points to it, and you still fall through it, that's not a trap, you're just incompetent. I said back in September after seeing Michael Penix that the Hoosiers were for real. What I didn't expect is that they would be just as real with Peyton Ramsey. Penix is 3rd in the Big Ten in Total QBR, but Ramsey is 5th. Ahead of guys like Jack Coan, Nate Stanley, Shea Patterson, Brian Lewerke, Adrian Martinez and Josh Jackson. Nobody would have believed that preseason, but boy are the Indiana faithful glad that the former starter didn't hit the transfer portal as so many others in his position have. The Hoosiers may be without Whop Phiylor, probably the only offensive weapon who can threaten the Michigan defense. He's the shifty slot athlete who mismatches against linebackers in Don Brown's sytem, as Penn State and Ohio State have exploited. Indiana has a solid group around him, but Wolverine cornerbacks seem to otherwise match up well. Indiana is the lone Big Ten team averaging over 300 passing yards per game in Big Ten play, 3rd in ypa, averaging 37.1 passing attempts per game, 2nd only to Purdue. So as effective as this offense is, if the passing game doesn't work without Phiylor, it could sputter in a hurry. Coming off the best game of his Michigan career, Shea Patterson has no such concerns, after facing significant benching speculation earlier in the year. Over his last 5 games, he's thrown 10 touchdowns to just 1 interception, and now gets to throw against a Hoosier secondary that has one of the lowest interception rates in the country, tallying just 1 through 7 Big Ten games. Oh, and the "away" crowd will probably end up being about 50/50 Michigan fans.

MICHIGAN 33, INDIANA 21

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-5, 4-6) at Maryland Terrapins (1-6, 3-7)

3:30 - College Park, MD - BTN

John Blake, Charlie Strong, Rich Rodriguez. Since Bob Devaney arrived in Lincoln in 1962, and cemented Nebraska as an absolute helmet school, those are the only three coaches at any of the eight (Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC) probably sure fire helmets, to have losing records in each of their first two seasons. Scott Frost seems destined to become the fourth. People knew he inherited a mess, and was implementing a new system, and while 2018 was rough, the improvement from September to November was noticeable, and the locals were content. People bought in, and Nebraska was ranked to start the season for the first time since 2014, and the Huskers were a trendy pick to win the West. Now, they need to win a road game at Maryland just to keep bowl hopes alive going into the finale. This marks Nebraska's first trip to Maryland in program history, the only previous meeting, in 2016, being in Lincoln, so even for this yawner, you know Big Red will travel strong for their program's first appearance in Byrd Stadium. The struggles of Adrian Martinez has been the narrative for the season, so maybe the glimses he showed in the loss to Wisconsin last week are reasons for optimism. He had his highest QBR, passer rating and total yardage since Week 4 against Illinois. Now he gets to face a Maryland defense that isn't slowing anyone down. Maryland is last in the Big Ten in scoring defense, total defense and passing defense. And for all the lamenting Frost's program's lack of progress, the Nebraska offense is still #4 in the Big Ten both in ypp and total offense. They've simply left too many points on the board, due to missed kicks, and failed 4th down conversions due to concerns in the kicking game. Nebraska has attempted 16 4th downs, most in Big Ten play, despite having the second worst conversion percentage (25%) in the league. Maryland's problems seem to be the type that need an offseason to correct, for Locksley to continue to mold the program he wants. Since Week 3, the Terps have only been competitive in a game twice. I think you can make that three, but Nebraska, and a 100% Adrian Martinez can overwhelm this Terp defense.

NEBRASKA 28, MARYLAND 27

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1 on:** November 19, 2019, 03:08:54 PM »

This weekend's games by Current Power Ranking:

#1 Ohio State vs #3 Penn State
#2 Wisconsin vs #10 Purdue
#4 Michigan at #7 Indiana
#5 Minnesota at #13 Northwestern
#6 Iowa vs #8 Illinois
#9 Michigan State at #14 Rutgers
#11 Nebraska at #12 Maryland

A lot of interesting games for various different reasons.

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** November 20, 2019, 04:30:30 PM »

Noon games in, with the exceptions of the GOTW

847badgerfan · « **Reply #3 on:** November 22, 2019, 09:49:22 AM »

There is no thread for the UW/Purdue game tomorrow, so I'll leave this here.

Starting LT Cole Van Lanen is out with a head injury, and starting NT Bryson Williams is out with a leg injury. Outside of them and those who are out for the season, everyone should be able to play.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #4 on:** November 23, 2019, 07:26:41 PM »

Once again your predictions are remarkably spot-on, in terms of wins and losses (although your spread on Nebraska v. Maryland was a bit askew).

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #5 on:** November 23, 2019, 08:13:46 PM »

Quote from: Hawkinole on November 23, 2019, 07:26:41 PM

Once again your predictions are remarkably spot-on, in terms of wins and losses (although your spread on Nebraska v. Maryland was a bit askew).

Yes. I really enjoy them. Kept looking for the OSU/PSU take. But, alas, ELA has real life outside of CFB.

ELA · « **Reply #6 on:** November 24, 2019, 12:53:30 PM »

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 23, 2019, 08:13:46 PM

Yes. I really enjoy them. Kept looking for the OSU/PSU take. But, alas, ELA has real life outside of CFB.

Yeah, I've crapped the bed on getting these done this year

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Topic: ELA November 23 Breakdown

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ELA November 23 Breakdown

medinabuckeye1

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847badgerfan

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