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Topic: preseason polls coming out...

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #28 on: August 05, 2019, 10:26:27 AM »
B1G in the Coaches Poll:

  • #5 Ohio State
  • #7 Michigan
  • #14 Penn State
  • #17 Wisconsin
  • #19 Iowa
  • #20 Michigan State
  • #25 Northwestern
  • #26 (first among ORV with 152) Nebraska
  • (last among ORV with 1) Minnesota
Not ranked and no votes (order is just E->W):
  • Rutgers
  • Maryland
  • Indiana
  • Purdue
  • Illinois

Ranked vs Ranked (or at least receiving votes) in the B1G this year:
  • #7 M at #17 UW, 9/21
  • #20 MSU at #25 NU, 9/21
  • #5 tOSU at #26 UNL, 9/28
  • #25 NU at #17 UW, 9/28
  • #20 MSU at #5 tOSU, 10/5
  • #19 Iowa at #7 M, 10/5
  • #25 NU at #26 UNL, 10/5
  • #14 PSU at #19 Iowa, 10/12
  • #20 MSU at #17 UW, 10/12
  • #26 UNL at ORV MN, 10/12
  • #5 tOSU at #25 NU, 10/18 (Friday)
  • #7 M at #14 PSU, 10/19
  • #17 UW at #5 tOSU, 10/26
  • #14 PSU at #20 MSU, 10/26
  • #19 Iowa at #25 NU, 10/26
  • #14 PSU at ORV MN, 11/9
  • #19 Iowa at #17 UW, 11/9
  • #20 MSU at #7 M, 11/16
  • ORV MN at #19 Iowa, 11/16
  • #17 UW at #26 UNL, 11/16
  • #14 PSU at #5 tOSU, 11/23 
  • ORV MN at #25 NU, 11/23
  • #19 Iowa at #26 UNL, 11/29
  • #5 tOSU at #7 M, 11/30
  • #17 UW at ORV MN, 11/30


medinabuckeye1

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #29 on: August 05, 2019, 10:53:34 AM »
Per my above post, I thought it was interesting that there are at least two B1G games between teams that are either ranked or receiving votes each weekend from 9/21 through the end of the season except week 10 (Saturday, November 2) when there are none.  That weekend in the B1G:

  • #7 Michigan is at Maryland
  • #25 Northwestern is at Indiana
  • #26 Nebraska is at Purdue
  • Rutgers is at Illinois
  • #5 tOSU has a bye
  • #14 PSU has a bye
  • #17 UW has a bye
  • #19 Iowa has a bye
  • #20 MSU has a bye
  • ORV MN has a bye


Even though there are only four B1G games that weekend and none involve two teams that are ranked or receiving votes, I think it could be an interesting weekend.  The four games:
  • Michigan is at Maryland in a game that I think most of us will assume that the Wolverines should win.  If you look closer, however, Michigan hosts Notre Dame the previous Saturday (10/26) and they host MSU the following Saturday (11/16).  That looks like pretty much the dictionary definition of a "trap game" to me.  It is a road trip sandwiched in between two big rivalry games.  
  • Northwestern is at Indiana in a game that I think most of us will assume that the Wildcats should win.  For Northwestern the game is sandwiched in between home games against divisional rivals Iowa and Purdue so much like the Wolverines, I think that the Wildcats should be on "upset alert" that weekend.  
  • Nebraska is at Purdue and I think that is close enough that it should be a good game, especially at Purdue.  
  • Rutgers is at Illinois in a game likely to be the primary determinant of which B1G team ends up ranked dead last.  


Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2019, 12:15:56 PM »
Nice trap game analysis.

utee94

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2019, 01:15:02 PM »
I was musing about weaknesses or unknowns with some of the top teams:

1.  Clemson - none known
2.  Alabama - none known
3.  Georgia - replacing every wide receiver from last year and a good bit on defense
4.  Oklahoma - defense
5.  Ohio State - new QB with minimal PT, none in system
6.  LSU - the HC?
7.  Michigan - the Hump
8.  Florida - replacing 4 of 5 on OL
9. Notre Dame - I don't know
10.  Texas - I don't know

All of them have a decent to excellent QB returning except Ohio State.  All of them have recruited well.  Notre Dame plays AT #3 and #7, plus some other worthies.  Florida plays #3 and #6.  UGA plays #8 and #9. 


Texas plays #4 and #6.  Major weakness is replacing 7-8 starters on defense.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #32 on: August 05, 2019, 03:14:59 PM »
All of them have a decent to excellent QB returning except Ohio State.  All of them have recruited well.  Notre Dame plays AT #3 and #7, plus some other worthies.  Florida plays #3 and #6.  UGA plays #8 and #9. 

Texas plays #4 and #6.  Major weakness is replacing 7-8 starters on defense.
I was looking at what Cincy and Utee noted about schedules and I thought I'd add that a big potential advantage (or disadvantage) for Clemson and Notre Dame is that they are unlikely to face a high-end opponent in a potential CCG.  For the rest that isn't true:
  • Clemson:  Highest ranked team in the other division of the ACC is #29 (fourth among ORV) Miami.  
  • Bama:  Possibly #3 UGA or #8 UF
  • Georgia:  Possibly #2 Bama, #6 LSU, #11 aTm, or #16 Auburn
  • Oklahoma:  Possibly #10 UT or #24 ISU
  • Ohio State:  Possibly #17 UW, #19 Iowa, or #25 NU
  • LSU:  Possibly #3 UGA or #8 UF
  • Michigan:  Possibly #17 UW, #19 Iowa, or #25 NU
  • Florida:  Possibly #2 Bama, #6 LSU, #11 aTm, or #16 Auburn
  • Notre Dame:  n/a
  • Texas:  Possibly #4 OU or #24 ISU
I don't mean this to be "whining" about it on behalf of the SEC, B12, and B1G teams.  It is a self-imposed handicap (or advantage) and it would be inappropriate to whine about a self-imposed handicap.  Additionally, as noted parenthetically, it could be an advantage.  If, for example, #2 Bama loses two games but makes it to the SECCG anyway where they take down #2 UGA that will be a strong argument in their favor.  A 2-loss Clemson or ND team would likely get little or no help from their CCG.  


Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #33 on: August 05, 2019, 04:15:56 PM »
Texas and Oklahoma could play each other three times in a season.  They are not unique in that respect.

The CG is a double edged sword, but I view it as the first round of the playoff in effect.  I didn't think UGA should have gotten a "do over" last year after losing the CG.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #34 on: August 05, 2019, 04:51:38 PM »
Texas and Oklahoma could play each other three times in a season.  They are not unique in that respect.
The fact that Texas and Oklahoma could play each other three times in a season and that this is not unique to them is one reason that I wasn't in favor of playoff expansion from two (BCS) to now four and inevitably soon more teams.  

Individual regular season games inherently do NOT matter as much as they used to.  In the BCS era Bama's loss to Auburn a few years ago and Ohio State's loss to PSU also a few years ago would have been absolutely fatal to Bama/tOSU's NC hopes.  Now things like that can be overcome.  

Look at two past Ohio State/Michigan games from the Ohio State perspective:
  • 1969:  Ohio State was #1 and the game was effectively a NC game for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes were prohibited by the "no repeat" rule from going to the 1970 Rose Bowl and prohibited by the "no other bowls" rule from going to any other bowl so THE GAME was the last game of Ohio State's season and the Buckeyes were #1.  The stakes of that one game in 1969 would now be divided over four games:  1) THE GAME, 2) The B1GCG, 3) the CFP Semi-Final, 4) The CFP final.  
  • 2002:  Ohio State was #2 so the game was effectively a NC quarter-final for Ohio State.  There was no B1GCG and there were no CFP Semi-finals.  The stakes of that one game in 2002 would now be divided over three games: 1) THE GAME, 2) The B1GCG, 3) the CFP Semi-Final.  


No future Ohio State/Michigan game will ever be as big as the 2002 game and that was not as big as the 1969 game.  

The CG is a double edged sword, but I view it as the first round of the playoff in effect.  I didn't think UGA should have gotten a "do over" last year after losing the CG.
From your perspective as an SEC fan I think it is fair to view the CG as a NC quarter-final.  At least so far, no SECCG winner has missed the CFP.  Their CFP rankings entering the SECCG:
  • 2014:  #1 Bama vs #16 Mizzou
  • 2015:  #2 Bama vs #18 Florida
  • 2016:  #1 Bama vs # 15 Florida
  • 2017:  #2 Auburn vs #6 UGA
  • 2018:  #1 Bama vs #4 UGA
From 2014-2016 the SEC-E Champion probably would have missed the CFP with a win in the SECCG but the last two years it has been obvious that the winner would go and possible that the loser would go as well.  

In most conferences the situation is typically more like the SEC in 2014-2016 or worse.  Last year's other four CG's:
  • #2 Clemson vs nr Pitt
  • #5 OU vs #14 UT
  • #6 tOSU vs #21 NU
  • #11 Washington vs #17 Utah

Pitt, Northwestern, and Utah had no chance whatsoever to make the CFP while Texas probably had no chance and, at a minimum, would have needed a whole lot of help.  

For OU, the chance to avenge their earlier loss to the Longhorns and beat a top-15 team was a big boost because it ensured that they ended up ranked ahead of the Bama/UGA loser (although they might not have if UGA had won).  For the other three favorites the CG was a clear handicap because the opponent wasn't good enough to boost Clemson's, tOSU's, or Washington's ranking significantly while the possibility of a loss did exist.  

I've remarked on these pages in the past that the almost complete lack of CG upsets in the CFP era is both extraordinarily unlikely and extraordinarily unlikely to continue.  

At some point soon, a team in a position analogous to #5 OU last year will lose their CG and their conference will lose a CFP slot due to an upset.  


Cincydawg

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #35 on: August 05, 2019, 05:01:27 PM »
Interesting about the dearth of CG upsets.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #36 on: August 05, 2019, 05:13:37 PM »
Interesting about the dearth of CG upsets. 
The other thing, at least with last year, is that there were not a lot of teams with a plausible chance at a CFP bid heading into CCG weekend:
  • Bama was obviously in with a win over #4 UGA and might have been in with a loss (possibly depending on how bad the loss was and how OU and tOSU did)
  • Clemson was obviously in with a win over nr Pitt and might have been in with a loss (depending on how bad the loss was and how OU and tOSU did)
  • Notre Dame was obviously in.  
  • Georgia was obviously in with a win over #1Bama and might have been in with a loss depending on how bad the loss was and how OU and tOSU did.  
  • Oklahoma was obviously in with a win and a UGA loss.  It could have been close between OU and Bama if UGA and OU had both won.  
  • Ohio State needed Bama and Texas to win.  
After the top-6, nobody else had a chance.  #7 Michigan couldn't realistically have passed #6 Ohio State because even with a loss in the B1GCG the Buckeyes still would have had a 1/2 game better record (11-2 vs 10-2) and a recent and decisive H2H win.  #8 UCF was undefeated but couldn't have passed enough teams to get there.  #9 UF through #17 Utah were all 3-loss P5 teams except for #13 WSU but the Huskies were NOT in their CG so they were out.  

There will be more interesting years in which more of the "other" teams in the P5 CG's have a shot.  


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #37 on: August 05, 2019, 09:24:01 PM »
Interesting about the dearth of CG upsets. 
It's that thing where big-boy teams are playing with their goals in front of them and tending to show up.  But I'm absurd.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #38 on: August 05, 2019, 09:26:37 PM »
  Florida plays #3 and #6.   

Pffffft, #3 and #6 have to play US.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #39 on: August 06, 2019, 08:43:09 AM »
It's that thing where big-boy teams are playing with their goals in front of them and tending to show up.  But I'm absurd.
To an extent I agree and I think that is one of the reasons we haven't seen a REALLY big upset like Pitt over Clemson or NU over tOSU last year or Mizzou over Bama in 2014 would have been.  

That said, a lot of these games have involved top-4 teams vs top-10 teams and the lower ranked team aught to win that at least once in three or four tries and we just haven't seen it at all yet.  

ELA

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #40 on: August 06, 2019, 08:54:29 AM »
To an extent I agree and I think that is one of the reasons we haven't seen a REALLY big upset like Pitt over Clemson or NU over tOSU last year or Mizzou over Bama in 2014 would have been. 

That said, a lot of these games have involved top-4 teams vs top-10 teams and the lower ranked team aught to win that at least once in three or four tries and we just haven't seen it at all yet. 
The lower ranked team won 4 of the first 8 Big XII CCGs.  Since Kansas State beat #1 Oklahoma in 2003, the lower ranked team is 1-8, with the lone "upset" being #9 Oklahoma over a fluky #1 Missouri in 2008.

The SEC has always seemed favorite-friendly, the higher ranked team is 20-7, with no real trend.  The lower ranked team won in 1994 (#6 Florida over #3 Alabama), 1999 (#7 Alabama over #5 Florida); 2001 (#21 LSU over #2 Tennessee); 2005 (#13 Georgia over #3 LSU); 2008 (#2 Florida over #1 Alabama); 2009 (#2 Alabama over #1 Florida); and 2017 (#6 Georgia over #4 Auburn).  So even of the 7, 5 don't really feel like upsets.  2001 and 2005 are probably the only ones

FearlessF

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Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #41 on: August 06, 2019, 09:57:02 AM »
some think this is the reason the Big Ten prefers the East/West divisions

gives the winner of "the game" a better chance at the playoff

put the weak teams in the West
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