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Topic: Preseason Coaches Poll released

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rolltidefan

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #56 on: August 07, 2017, 12:20:53 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 07, 2017, 09:15:18 AM
I agree but I was exaggerating for illustrative purposes.  On our Power Rankings we have a poster who always treats ALL wins as being better than ALL losses and I strongly disagree. 


Perhaps the first week of the season is a better example:
  • In week #1 Nebraska and Minnesota have probably the easiest games of any B1G schools.  The Cornhuskers host Arkansas State while the Gophers host Buffalo. 
  • In week #1 Michigan and Rutgers have probably the toughest games of any B1G schools.  The Wolverines face Florida in Texas while the Scarlet Knights host Washington. 
If the B1G teams barely win the two easy games (Nebraska over Ark St and Minnesota over Buffalo) and barely lose the two tough games (Florida over Michigan and Washington over Rutgers) I will consider that to reflect well on RU/M and poorly on UNL/MN.  Thus, UNL and MN should not move up for barely beating bad teams and RU/M should not move down for barely losing to good teams. 

perhaps i didn't express it very well, but my take was on a season as a whole. on a game by game analysis, i agree with you.

but over a season as a whole, the sos are usually close enough to warrant a win is better than a loss. we usually break down a comparison of teams to who did you beat and who did you lose to.

basically, over the course of a season, if two teams have similar records, they've played enough similar opps that a single game comparison isn't likely to give you a good picture of who is better.

it's folly and we're running a fools errand.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #57 on: August 07, 2017, 01:56:34 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 07, 2017, 12:20:53 PM
perhaps i didn't express it very well, but my take was on a season as a whole. on a game by game analysis, i agree with you.

but over a season as a whole, the sos are usually close enough to warrant a win is better than a loss. we usually break down a comparison of teams to who did you beat and who did you lose to.

basically, over the course of a season, if two teams have similar records, they've played enough similar opps that a single game comparison isn't likely to give you a good picture of who is better.

it's folly and we're running a fools errand.


I agree with the caveat that the "usually" that I emphasized in your comment does NOT mean always.  Our examples tend to be hypothetical because it is hypothetically possible for one team in the SEC-E or the B1G-E to play the three or four worst teams  in the (SEC/B1G)-W while another plays the three or four best teams in the (SEC/B1G)-W but in practice it may never actually happen. 


In practice, SoS can still make a very significant difference for two reasons:
  • We are only talking about a 12-13 game schedule to begin with so one or two games makes up a substantial chunk of it, and
  • Realistically for NC contenders that 12-13 game schedule is paired down to a lot fewer "plausibly losable games". 
Assuming that Alabama is an NC contender they are not going to lose to Fresno, ColoSt, Vandy, etc.  Similarly, assuming that Ohio State is an NC contender, they are not going to lose to IU, Army, UNLV, etc.  Thus, within their first four games the Buckeyes and Tide each have one game that even a contender could lose and three games that should not be competitive at all.  FSU and Oklahoma are equivalent enough for this discussion.  If Bama replaced FSU with UCF or if Ohio State replaced Oklahoma with Tulsa that would be a HUGE change.  It is only one game but it would represent a 100% decrease in realistic tests in the first third of the season. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #58 on: August 08, 2017, 03:59:37 PM »
For a contender, a season is usually 4-5 games counting the CG.  The other 8 games are against mediocre teams they will nearly always beat, like over 95% of the time.  And they will be favored in those 4-5 games with very few exceptions.


Alabama realistically has Auburn, LSU, FSU, and the CG (and perhaps that won't be close of course).  Ohio State has a tougher slate, based on what we know today anyway, with three top ten teams (ranked preseason) plus Nebraska and then a CG with perhaps Wisconsin who can beat them.



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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #59 on: August 08, 2017, 04:33:40 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 08, 2017, 03:59:37 PM
For a contender, a season is usually 4-5 games counting the CG.  The other 8 games are against mediocre teams they will nearly always beat, like over 95% of the time.  And they will be favored in those 4-5 games with very few exceptions.


Alabama realistically has Auburn, LSU, FSU, and the CG (and perhaps that won't be close of course).  Ohio State has a tougher slate, based on what we know today anyway, with three top ten teams (ranked preseason) plus Nebraska and then a CG with perhaps Wisconsin who can beat them.


Ohio State's looks tougher right now but we'll see.  In terms of legitimate challenges for a legitimate NC Contender Ohio State has:
  • vs #6 PSU
  • vs #8 OU
  • @ #9 M
  • CCG possibly against #10 UW
Bama has:
  • vs #3 FSU
  • vs #12 LSU
  • @ #13 Aub
  • vs #24 TN
  • CCG possibly against #16 UF
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rolltidefan

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #60 on: August 08, 2017, 04:56:51 PM »
i wouldn't say it's clearly tougher.

bama has toughest opp (fsu) but not significantly tougher than osu's toughest (psu) according to coaches rankings. likewise, osu has next 2 toughest opps (ou and mich), but not appreciably better (rankings wise) from lsu and au. and tenn is better and at minimum comparable to to neb, per rankings, so that's at least a wash.

biggest advantage osu has would be potential ccg matchups based o these rankings (wisky for osu, uga or uf for bama) and even those are only seperated by 5/6 spots right now.

these don't count surprises for either (ole miss, arky, aTm or msu, iowa).

looks pretty even to me. even the home/away is really close, with slight advantage to bama for playing fsu neutral v ou at home for osu.

mich schedule, on the other hand, is pretty tough based on rankings today. uf, wisky, osu, psu. 3 top 10's, plus the best opp, plus uf ooc, plus a ccg vs top10 wisky again (as per these rankings).

but, again, as we all know, these rankings won't hold for squat. and some teams that look daunting turn out to be also rans, while someone else is hiding in wait to pounce on cfb playoff.
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