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Topic: Preseason Coaches Poll released

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MarqHusker

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #42 on: August 06, 2017, 11:38:51 AM »
This page and the quotes found herein could be a panel script for BTN with DiNardo and Co.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #43 on: August 06, 2017, 01:38:07 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 05, 2017, 10:39:01 PM
The short answer is that it's a relative rarity. Basically, it took something unusual for one team to win a very close game. You wouldn't 100 percent dismiss it, but you would take it as part of a larger context.

The longer answer is that turnovers are quite hard to control. Fumble recoveries are mostly crap shoots. Interceptions are mildly more in a defense's control, but a lot are still tipped balls that rely on the magic of physics to be catchable. Returns off turnovers are likewise mildly random and of course can have big impacts. So a defense will try to do the things that lead to turnovers, go after the ball, hit QBs, cover well, but some days that'll lead to more takeaways than others. If you needed all five to hold on, or needed great placement for some, your fans will likely leave more relieved than confident.

Basically, football games are often weird scrambles of so many things. Taking only the final outcome of win/loss is fine, but it often leaves behind indicators of quality. Those indicators won't predict everything, as the game is beautifully random, but they can often shed light onto what's going on.
well lock the thread that pretty well sums it up
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MrNubbz

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #44 on: August 06, 2017, 01:42:03 PM »
Quote from: MarqHusker on August 06, 2017, 11:38:51 AM
This page and the quotes found herein could be a panel script for BTN with DiNardo and Co.
If DiNardo said anything remotely close we'd know he was reading from a script.I do like him how ever
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #45 on: August 06, 2017, 02:50:20 PM »
DiNardless brings that XFL flava.




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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #46 on: August 06, 2017, 05:11:24 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 04, 2017, 02:32:57 PM
there's disparity in sos, but not as much as is generally believed, imo. especially among p5 teams.

I think the opposite.  SOS is largely ignored by the voters/committee.  They look at schedules and base them more on reputation than actual quality.  A 10-0 team is going to be ranked above a 9-1 team a vast majority of the time.  In the cases when it's not, the 9-1 team is a helmet school, or more of a helmet than the 10-0 team, largely irrelevant of the actual quality of those teams or their SOS in that season.

Basically, you have a population of voters/committee, and nearly any group of people become a herd with a safety-in-numbers herd mentality. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #47 on: August 06, 2017, 06:02:48 PM »
That clearly is not true for non-P5 teams who are undefeated.  And I think a 7-0 team with a soft schedule and close wins will usually be ranked behind a 6-1 team with good wins and a close loss even at that point in the season.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #48 on: August 06, 2017, 06:37:28 PM »
Right.....but he specified P5 teams....so.......
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bayareabadger

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #49 on: August 06, 2017, 11:13:09 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 06, 2017, 09:20:34 AM
eh, football is a game of inches.

If one team doesn't take care of the ball while the other team does, then the outcome is predictable.

I don't generally punish winning teams for making more big plays than the other team.

Now if the refs butcher a bunch of calls, you might have a more sound argument. But that's less likely now that we have replay.

It is a game of inches, but kind of a lot of them. If a ball gets batted down vs. up at the line, is this an inch you control. Likewise, every play has 10-plus interactions. Sometime you win more, but the play doesn't go your way. It's a sport with a lot of noise, that make it great.

But that also means because something happens doesn't mean it's the direct result of some kind of individual win. Sometimes things happen just because they happen.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #50 on: August 07, 2017, 08:09:00 AM »
Polls late in the season will usually reflect losses for P5 teams, with the occasional flip because of apparent SOS.


I think we see this after the CGs when for example #4 beats #8 in a tough game so #8 is now 10-3, but doesn't drop below a team that is 10-2.  Obviously it takes a lot to overcome the extra loss when comparing an 11-2 team  with a 10-3 team, but it happens.  It's just not that common because clear differences in SOS are not that common.
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Temp430

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #51 on: August 07, 2017, 08:27:27 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 04, 2017, 08:58:50 AM
I think UM, UW and PSU are all too high. They should be in the 12-20 range in my opinion.

I think Michigan is the most over-rated and Penn State a little as well but your Badgers are deserving of a #10.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #52 on: August 07, 2017, 09:15:18 AM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 04, 2017, 02:32:57 PM
those aren't real scenarios, though. teams don't play the other 10 best. or worst.

there's disparity in sos, but not as much as is generally believed, imo. especially among p5 teams.
I agree but I was exaggerating for illustrative purposes.  On our Power Rankings we have a poster who always treats ALL wins as being better than ALL losses and I strongly disagree. 


Perhaps the first week of the season is a better example:
  • In week #1 Nebraska and Minnesota have probably the easiest games of any B1G schools.  The Cornhuskers host Arkansas State while the Gophers host Buffalo. 
  • In week #1 Michigan and Rutgers have probably the toughest games of any B1G schools.  The Wolverines face Florida in Texas while the Scarlet Knights host Washington. 
If the B1G teams barely win the two easy games (Nebraska over Ark St and Minnesota over Buffalo) and barely lose the two tough games (Florida over Michigan and Washington over Rutgers) I will consider that to reflect well on RU/M and poorly on UNL/MN.  Thus, UNL and MN should not move up for barely beating bad teams and RU/M should not move down for barely losing to good teams. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #53 on: August 07, 2017, 09:26:24 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 06, 2017, 09:01:12 AM
Ed Zachery


so, even with a 4-team playoff, the best team doesn't always win the big trophy
The only solution to that would be something like the 7-game series playoff that the NBA uses.  In CBB we have a 68 team playoff and still the best team doesn't always win because one bad game in the six that it takes to win the championship knocks you out. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #54 on: August 07, 2017, 09:31:14 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on August 06, 2017, 09:20:34 AM
eh, football is a game of inches.

If one team doesn't take care of the ball while the other team does, then the outcome is predictable.

I don't generally punish winning teams for making more big plays than the other team.

Now if the refs butcher a bunch of calls, you might have a more sound argument. But that's less likely now that we have replay.
I think it matters whether you are ranking who is "more deserving" or who you think is "better".  In the "more deserving" category a win is a win and really, nothing else matters.  If you are ranking who you think is "better" then you have to look more closely. 


On this argument in general I believe that all teams play within a range.  They have good days and bad days.  If team-X beats team-Y it definitely means, at a minimum, that team-X's best day is better than team-Y's worst day.  It could mean:
  • That team-X's best day is barely better than team-Y's worst day,
  • That team-X's worst day is better than team-Y's best day, or
  • Anything in between
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FearlessF

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Re: Preseason Coaches Poll released
« Reply #55 on: August 07, 2017, 11:52:02 AM »
I think "more deserving" can also apply to the team "A" that takes on a very strong schedule compared to the team "B" that schedules very weak opponents


heck, team "A" might not have a strong argument for being the "better" team, but they are more deserving because of their relative schedule
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