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Topic: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #252 on:** November 30, 2017, 06:46:26 AM »

There is a clean path of course and then there is mayhem with a couple upsets/outcomes.

The mayhem would persist, and perhaps worsen, if we had 8 teams involved.

Ohio State has that one really ugly loss, which is obviously a knock, and Bama as noted has no particularly impressive wins, LSU and Miss State are "so-so" wins I suppose, but the MSU outcome was close of course. FSU was probably a decent team when they played. I don't see a real clear choice is OSU is 11-2 and Bama is 11-1 for the final slot.

And of course IF OSU is selected and does poorly in the first round Bama fans will claim the usual.

My hope for the Dawgs this year was to win the East and make an NY6 bowl while beating Florida. That looks assured at this point, so yay, gravy time.

If UGA can clean up their mistakes with Auburn they should compete, as they did last time early until their mistakes got the best of them in a hurry. They also need to pass on first down.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #253 on:** November 30, 2017, 10:35:18 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 30, 2017, 06:46:26 AM

Ohio State has that one really ugly loss, which is obviously a knock, and Bama as noted has no particularly impressive wins, LSU and Miss State are "so-so" wins I suppose, but the MSU outcome was close of course. FSU was probably a decent team when they played. I don't see a real clear choice is OSU is 11-2 and Bama is 11-1 for the final slot.

I think a lot of the Bama/tOSU decision (if that is relevant) will come down to how the committee views Bama's FSU win.
If the committee views FSU as a 5-6 team that also lost to NCST, Miami, L'Ville, Boston College, and Clemson then Bama's schedule is pretty weak. However, if the committee views FSU as the CFP contender that they were viewed as when that game was played then Bama's schedule looks a lot better.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #254 on:** November 30, 2017, 10:43:56 AM »

I see tickets for the SEC CG start at $468 on the secondary market right now. My guess is Dawg fans will represent as they knew they would be there for weeks now.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #255 on:** November 30, 2017, 10:44:54 AM »

Here is something I'm really on the fence about:

What is Ohio State's best case scenario for getting into the CFP?

Originally I thought it was for both tOSU and TCU to win but now I'm starting to question that. If both the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs win that would leave Oklahoma at 11-2. That hurts Ohio State two ways:

It diminishes Ohio State's loss to the Sooners. If the Sooners are a 12-1 CFP team then losing to them isn't so bad. It is worse if they are an 11-2 non-Champion that probably isn't going to the playoffs.
It might theoretically put Oklahoma in the mix even as a non-Champion. That is bad for Ohio State due to the H2H loss.

The other side of it is that if TCU wins the committee doesn't have to decide between 11-1 Bama and 11-2 Ohio State. The committee can take both.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #256 on:** November 30, 2017, 11:25:41 AM »

A Clemson LOSS still leaves them 11-2 and in the discussion against 11-1 Bama and 11-2 Ohio State (and 11-2 OU and TCU perhaps).

There are still quite a few strange scenarios.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #257 on:** November 30, 2017, 11:38:34 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 30, 2017, 11:25:41 AM

A Clemson LOSS still leaves them 11-2 and in the discussion against 11-1 Bama and 11-2 Ohio State (and 11-2 OU and TCU perhaps).

There are still quite a few strange scenarios.

I just don't think that a 2-loss non-Champion is a serious factor. I know Clemson has a stout schedule but the other contenders are all going to pick up MAJOR wins and Conference Championships this weekend.
In the CFP history they have always taken teams in this order:

All undefeated P5 Champions.
All 1-loss P5 Champions.
Other 1-loss P5 teams*.

If you just continue that pattern, the next groups should be:
4: All 2-loss P5 Champions.
5: Other 2-loss P5 teams*.

* the one and only time so far that a non-Champion got in several things were relevant:

There were no 1-loss P5 Champions available for the spot.
The 1-loss non-Champion in question had a very strong schedule including a blowout road win over a P5 Champion and a VERY close road loss to a P5 Champion.
The available 2-loss P5 Champion had a very weak schedule and two bad losses.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #258 on:** November 30, 2017, 01:25:36 PM »

I doubt 11-2 Clemson is a "serious factor" also. But we could have two slots open, right?

I think we'd all agree that the SEC and ACC champs are in, no matter what. TCU beats OU and OSU beats Wisconsin and there are two slots open now.

Alabama 11-1
Ohio State 11-2 conference champ
Clemson 11-2
TCU 11-2 conference champ (but unlikely to jump from #11 to #4)
USC 11-2 conference champ (but unlikely to jump from #10 to #4)

UCF undefeated conference champ but not P5.

My GUESS is they would choose Bama and OSU, but it could get interesting of course which is why we talk about it.

TresselownsUM · « **Reply #259 on:** November 30, 2017, 01:41:01 PM »

It diminishes Ohio State's loss to the Sooners. If the Sooners are a 12-1 CFP team then losing to them isn't so bad. It is worse if they are an 11-2 non-Champion that probably isn't going to the playoffs.

I don't think the committee cares about losses that much, otherwise Clemson wouldn't be #1 with a loss to a 4 win Cuse team, Ohio State wouldn't have gotten in with it's bad loss to a 6-6 Va Tech team.

I think they care about how many times you lost, but not necessarily who you lost too.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #260 on:** November 30, 2017, 01:45:10 PM »

I disagree, WHO beat you is VERY important.

Oddly enough, a loss to a bad team is often excused as a "bad day" while a loss to a good team is evidence of something.

ELA · « **Reply #261 on:** November 30, 2017, 01:51:32 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 30, 2017, 01:45:10 PM

I disagree, WHO beat you is VERY important.

Oddly enough, a loss to a bad team is often excused as a "bad day" while a loss to a good team is evidence of something.

I agree with you, but the committee has said it's WAY down their list. They look at WHO you beat and how MANY TIMES you lost, not so much who you lost to.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #262 on:** November 30, 2017, 01:55:20 PM »

Quote from: TresselownsUM on November 30, 2017, 01:41:01 PM

It diminishes Ohio State's loss to the Sooners. If the Sooners are a 12-1 CFP team then losing to them isn't so bad. It is worse if they are an 11-2 non-Champion that probably isn't going to the playoffs.

I don't think the committee cares about losses that much, otherwise Clemson wouldn't be #1 with a loss to a 4 win Cuse team, Ohio State wouldn't have gotten in with it's bad loss to a 6-6 Va Tech team.

I think they care about how many times you lost, but not necessarily who you lost too.

It certainly seems that way. I posted in one of these threads a while ago that Ohio State getting in with a bad loss to VaTech is not the only example. MSU got in with a loss to Nebraska and Oklahoma got in with a loss to Texas both when UNL/UT were pretty weak.

The ultimate effect is that I think you are better off to lose to a bad team (ie, Clemson/Cuse) than to a fellow contender because at least Clemson doesn't have to worry about Cuse getting in ahead of them based on H2H.

Same goes for Ohio State. If you traded results for the Oklahoma and Indiana games, the Buckeyes would be in MUCH better shape. They'd be 7-2/10-2 instead of 8-1/10-2 but they'd still be heading to Indianapolis because they'd be co-Champs with PSU and MSU and they won both of those games H2H. They would have two really bad losses (to 7-5 Iowa by 31 and to 6-6 IU by 15) but they'd also have a win over B12CG participant OU along with PSU and MSU. With a B1GCG win, that would likely be three top-10 and four top-15 wins and the bad losses would be forgiven.

At that point the B1GCG winner would be a lock for the CFP just like the ACC and SEC winners. The fourth spot would almost certainly be Bama because the other potential contenders would be:

11-2 B12 Champion OU or TCU
11-2 P12 Champion USC
11-2 non-Champion Clemson or Miami

I think that 11-1 non-Champion Bama wins easily over any of those.

CWSooner · « **Reply #263 on:** November 30, 2017, 02:03:26 PM »

Quote from: TresselownsUM on November 30, 2017, 01:41:01 PM

It diminishes Ohio State's loss to the Sooners. If the Sooners are a 12-1 CFP team then losing to them isn't so bad. It is worse if they are an 11-2 non-Champion that probably isn't going to the playoffs.

I don't think the committee cares about losses that much, otherwise Clemson wouldn't be #1 with a loss to a 4 win Cuse team, Ohio State wouldn't have gotten in with it's bad loss to a 6-6 Va Tech team.

I think they care about how many times you lost, but not necessarily who you lost too.

Kirby Hocutt, the Committee chairman, has almost directly said that the Committee does not look on that Clemson loss as a real loss. It's sort of half a loss. Because the Clemson QB--he of 7 TDs and 5 picks at the time--got hurt.

Baloney!

Oklahoma had 6 starters either out for the Iowa State game or who left the game hurt, but nobody mentions that each Tuesday night. And rightly so. Injuries are part of the game, and the Committee is wrong to give teams with injuries special consideration, much less to pick one team above all others to receive said consideration.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #264 on:** November 30, 2017, 02:33:03 PM »

There is no need to "excuse" the OU loss really with injuries. They are in if they win, as is Clemson. Placement is rather unimportant. A 12-1 conference champ will be in every year except the very very odd one.

You can start looking at an 11-2 Clemson if they lose and TCU beats OU perhaps, but probably not. I think the most likely choice is going to be between Ohio State and Alabama.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #265 on:** November 30, 2017, 02:39:27 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 30, 2017, 10:44:54 AM

Here is something I'm really on the fence about:

What is Ohio State's best case scenario for getting into the CFP?

Originally I thought it was for both tOSU and TCU to win but now I'm starting to question that. If both the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs win that would leave Oklahoma at 11-2. That hurts Ohio State two ways:
It diminishes Ohio State's loss to the Sooners. If the Sooners are a 12-1 CFP team then losing to them isn't so bad. It is worse if they are an 11-2 non-Champion that probably isn't going to the playoffs.
It might theoretically put Oklahoma in the mix even as a non-Champion. That is bad for Ohio State due to the H2H loss.

The other side of it is that if TCU wins the committee doesn't have to decide between 11-1 Bama and 11-2 Ohio State. The committee can take both.

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 30, 2017, 11:38:34 AM

I just don't think that a 2-loss non-Champion is a serious factor.

you already answered this.

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Topic: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

Cincydawg

Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

medinabuckeye1

Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

Cincydawg

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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TresselownsUM

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Cincydawg

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ELA

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medinabuckeye1

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CWSooner

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Cincydawg

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rolltidefan

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