Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

ha, I've been hoping for years that the underdogs would win ALL the CCGs.

That just might get a couple 2 loss teams in the playoffs!

I believe OSU is one of the 4 best teams right now, but in good conscience I couldn't put them in yet.

My 4 as of today
1) Georgia, they look the part, and have some nice wins
2) Bama. They look the part, but don't have the nice wins
3) Clemson, probably best collection of wins
4) ND, this was a tough call, but they've played pretty well and have some nice wins. I think the USC win is getting overplayed, I think USC is pretty average this year. The NC state win looks nice though
5) I got Ohio St, I wont complain if you want Oklahoma here, but they've looked pretty crappy except against the Bucks
6) Penn St. The defense leaves lots of questions for me, I think this could be a top 4 team but they won't be able to prove it. Unfortunately no matter what happens I'm not sure I can move them much higher than this, I'd be more apt to have teams jump them, like Wisconsin, Miami, TCU, Oky St assuming they get wins.
7) Wisconsin, haven't beaten anyone good, but in a 1 game shot, they could probably play with most teams
8) OU, defense is atrocious, seemed to have lost a step after the OSU win
9) Miami, undefeated, but don't look good 
10) TCU, I'm just not sure how good they are.

The CFP rankings may differ from the AP and Coaches polls, but I don't think any difference will be important for now.  My take:

Teams that effectively control their own destiny:

• #1 Bama:  Obviously if they get to 13-0 they are in and #1.  
• #2 Georgia:  If they get to 13-0, Bama will have a loss and UGA will be #1.  
• #4 Wisconsin:  If they get to 13-0 Ohio State will have another loss and Wisconsin will be in.  
• #5 Notre Dame:  Either Bama or UGA will lose as will either tOSU or UW.  If the Irish get to 11-1 they will pick up wins over #9 Miami and #18 Stanford to go with wins over MSU, USC and NCST and a close loss to #2 UGA.  They will be in.  
• #6 Clemson:  Either Bama or UGA will lose as will either tOSU or UW.  If Clemson gets to 12-1 they will pick up wins over #20 NCST, FSU, and ACC-Coastal (I had to look it up) Champ probably #9 Miami or #13 VaTech.  That would get them in.  
• #9 Miami:  Either Bama/UGA and tOSU/UW will lose.  Additionally, if Miami gets to 13-0 they will pick up wins over #13 VaTech and #5 ND.  Finally, Miami can't get to 13-0 without Clemson losing again.  13-0 would get Miami in.  
• #13 VaTech:  Either Bama/UGA and tOSU/UW will lose.  Additionally, the Hokies play #9 Miami this weekend and if they get to 12-1 Clemson will have another loss.  

Teams that need help but are still alive:

• #3 Ohio State:  I almost included the Buckeyes in the group above but they do not control their own destiny.  Even if the Buckeyes get to 12-1 they could find themselves behind the SEC Champion, an 11-1 ND, either a 12-1 Clemson or a 13-0 Miami, and a 12-1 B12 Champion Oklahoma.  
• #7 Penn State:  The Nittany Lions have two problems.  First, they can't get to the B1GCG without Ohio State losing twice.  Second, their SoS is abysmal.  Furthermore, problem #1 can't be solved without making problem #2 worse.  Penn State has effectively zero chance as a non-Champion and even with a B1G Championship they need help because that SoS will hurt them against similarly situated schools.  
• #8 Oklahoma:  It is odd that Oklahoma does not control their own destiny despite the same record and a H2H road win over Ohio State but Oklahoma's problem is the mirror image of Ohio State.  Ohio State has looked like a playoff team in every game except tOSU/OU.  Oklahoma has looked like a playoff team only in the tOSU/OU game.  
• #10 TCU:  Despite what happened in 2014, TCU has not substantially improved their schedule.  Their OOC was an FCS team, a bad SEC team, and SMU.  That could make it difficult for them to get in at 12-1.  
• #11 OkSU:  Like TCU, their OOC will hurt them if it comes down to them and another 12-1 P5 Champion.  
• #12 Washington:  See #10 and 11.  

The above covers all 13 undefeated and 1-loss P5 teams.  The various 2-loss P5 teams may have a theoretical chance but it would require a whole bunch of upsets.  

The B12 mess:
It is exceedingly difficult to make heads or tails of the B12 because more than half of the league is either 3-2 or 4-1 and still legitimately in the title race.  Here are the six contenders and how each has done against the other five:

• 4-1 Iowa State:  Lost to Texas, beat Oklahoma and TCU.  Yet to play WVU (away, 11/4) and OkSU (home, 11/11).  
• 4-1 TCU:  Lost to ISU, beat OkSU and WVU.  Yet to play Texas (home, 11/4) and OU (away, 11/11).  
• 4-1 Oklahoma:  Lost to ISU, beat Texas.  Yet to play OkSU (away, 11/4), TCU (home, 11/11), and WVU (home, 11/25).  
• 4-1 Oklahoma State:  Lost to TCU, beat Texas and WVU.  Yet to play OU (home, 11/4) and ISU (away, 11/11).  
• 3-2 West Virginia:  Lost to TCU and OkSU.  Yet to play ISU (home, 11/4), Texas (home, 11/18), and OU (away, 11/25).  
• 3-2 Texas:  Lost to OU and OkSU, beat ISU.  Yet to play TCU (away, 11/4), WVU (away, 11/18).  

Beyond that:

• ISU has an OOC loss.  
• TCU's OOC was crap.
• OkSU's OOC was crap.  

Oklahoma is the most serious CFP threat.  They have a great OOC road win at Ohio State.  The others all have either at least two losses or a completely crap OOC.  

Good article from Bill Connelly on the playoffs.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/31/16580214/college-football-playoff-national-championship-odds-2017-favorites-teams

It's hard to get too excited about say, Bama, Georgia, Miami, and Clemson being in the playoff, since Georgia and Bama will play and Miami and Clemson will play if they win their divisions.  These games will necessarily change the dynamics.

Nothing to much to quibble there, except maybe Alabama, whose best win is...Fresno State?  I mean, they are a good team and deserve their ranking, but Georgia, Clemson, and ND seem to be there by beating good teams.  Alabama, not so much.

Ed zachery

if the season ended today the committee would have went with 4 undefeated teams

Piles of games to go.  Nothing to see here.

I know what you mean, but I do feel that I learned something relevant here, specifically:

That the B12 is in relatively better and the P12 in relatively worse shape than I thought.  

Oklahoma's #5 ranking makes it clear that the Sooner's control their own destiny (because either UGA or Bama necessarily must lose).  The Sooners have games remaining against #11 OkSU and #8 TCU and (assuming they win out) against another ranked team in a rematch in the B12CG.  

Washington's #12 ranking makes it clear that the P12 is the first P5 conference out.  The Huskies have games remaining against #21 Stanford and #25 Washington State and the best-case-scenario for their P12CG opponent would be #17 USC.  Washington is not out of the race by any means but they need help because it is pretty clear that they would be behind all of the following:

• An undefeated or 1-loss SEC Champion
• A 1-loss Notre Dame
• An undefeated or 1-loss ACC Champion
• A 1-loss Oklahoma or TCU (or possibly OkSU also)
• An undefeated or 1-loss B1G Champion

Thus the Huskies could win out and still finish ranked #6.