I want to add a couple things on this 11-1,Tennessee vs 12-1 Pac Champion Oregon hypothetical that @jgvol raised.
First, I've added in a hypothetical 11-1 tOSU/Michigan loser because they'd be in the same boat as Tennessee.
Second, I think that the above hurts TN/M/tOSU. If the committee picks either TN or the tOSU/M loser they have to defend not taking a league Champion AND the decision to pick either TN or tOSU/M. If they pick Oregon they can simply defend one proposition (league Champ trumps) and leave it at that.
Finally, here is SoS rank of the four teams per Sagrin:
- #21 Tennessee
- #32 Ohio State
- #43 Oregon
- #71 Michigan
Over the next three weeks that gap overall will tighten. Remaining opponents assuming no CG for TN/M/tOSU and a CG for Oregon:
- Tennessee has already played the meat of their schedule so their Sos will likely drop with games against USCe, Mizzou, and Vandy.
- Ohio State's SoS will drop this week (IU), hold steady next week (UMD), and improve Thanksgiving weekend (M).
- Oregon's SoS will improve each week as their last three opponents are all .500+ in the Pac and in this scenario they then go to the P12CG against yet another team that will drive their SoS up.
- Michigan's SoS will move almost exactly in tandem with tOSU's as they play UNL, IL, and tOSU.
In this hypothetical:
Problems for Tennessee:
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and not that much better.
- Not a P5 Champion.
Problems for 11-1 Ohio State (assumes a close loss)
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and at home.
- Not a P5 Champion.
Problems for 11-1 Michigan (assumes a close loss)
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent.
- SoS is a disaster due to embarrassing OOC.
- Not a P5 Chsmpion.
If Michigan had a better OOC or if tOSU was visiting Ann Arbor this year then I think the tOSU/M road loser would have a case if they lost a game close enough that HFA could reasonably explain it.
Good analysis/breakdown again. I'm very impressed with you B1G guys' attention to details, and well thought out arguments.
One thing I still wonder about, however, is the SOS numbers. You used Sagarin, as I think you (could have been someone else) did some days back, and "we" had a debate, Drew maybe --- about the committee's SOS rankings, and where they derive them from.
Watching the CFB Playoff Show last night, they had Tenn at SOS #2, and SOR #2.
I've googled to try to find the exact metric they are using, but came up empty. The only suggestion I saw online, though not concrete, was that it was up to each committee member's interpretation. ????
Are we being kept in the dark on purpose (certainly), and if otherwise --- where/what is the metric being used?