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But taking in all the information, does anyone believe they'll run on UM?  If you can't run, you're one-dimensional.  If you're one-dimensional, you're right where the DC wants you to be. 
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So in lieu of all that, I shorthanded it with "OSU can't."  And that's my error.  I deeply apologize.

I don't think they will but I think there is more to it than what you laid out here.

Harbaugh is an old-school BigTen guy from the Woody Hayes/Bo Schembechler coaching tree. As such his absolute #1 priorities on offense and defense will be to run the ball and stop the run.

If you look back at those old school Hayes vs Schembechler and Schembechler vs Earle Bruce games you usually find that neither could run very well on the other. In the 19 years that Bo coached against Woody and Earle the teams went 9-9-1 and the average score was 15-14. 

Harbaugh's team will stop Ohio State from running effectively IMHO, because Harbaugh will do whatever it takes to make that happen. 

The relevant question is what will it take?

If Michigan can stop Ohio State from running with their base defense then yeah, I agree, Ohio State is cooked. However, if he has to put nine guys in the box to stop Ohio State's rushing offense he will do it but Stroud will light him up.

I don't think they will but I think there is more to it than what you laid out here.

Harbaugh is an old-school BigTen guy from the Woody Hayes/Bo Schembechler coaching tree. As such his absolute #1 priorities on offense and defense will be to run the ball and stop the run.

If you look back at those old school Hayes vs Schembechler and Schembechler vs Earle Bruce games you usually find that neither could run very well on the other. In the 19 years that Bo coached against Woody and Earle the teams went 9-9-1 and the average score was 15-14.

Harbaugh's team will stop Ohio State from running effectively IMHO, because Harbaugh will do whatever it takes to make that happen.

The relevant question is what will it take?

If Michigan can stop Ohio State from running with their base defense then yeah, I agree, Ohio State is cooked. However, if he has to put nine guys in the box to stop Ohio State's rushing offense he will do it but Stroud will light him up.

styles make fights. I am interested in how OSU D will try to counter Michigan's rushing attack. Knowles plays that base 4-2-5. Not sure that's what you want to be in if Michigan is trotting out extra OL and 2 or 3 TE's. I tend to think you don't want a 5th DB in there vs that- and you'd want to have a 3rd LB.

I have a feeling OSU is going to load the box and JJ is going to have to make plays down field with his arm to force OSU out of crowding the box. JJ can do it- it's not like he's incapable of it. He's done it in the past. They have just not been consistent with it- nor have they really tried it much. They have been OH so close on their deep shots. You'd think eventually it'll have to click. They need Roman Wilson back in the worst way- he's by far their best deep threat and fastest receiver. Andrel Anthony needs some go here as well- he's probably their only other WR that has proven he can get open deep- but for some fking reason Harbaugh won't play the kid- despite him just making plays and getting open when he does. It's fkng weird. They need Roman Wilson back and staying healthy vs OSU- he's missed too much time this year with little knicks and knacks and a concussion as well.

I really think Ronnie Bell and Cornelius Johnson need less playing time- they get most of the WR snaps- and they are severely holding back the passing offense in my opinion. Johnson is a terrible route runner and his hands/concentration are suspect. Ronnie Bell is a slot WR who can't really get deep and can't really make the contested catches- he's too small/thin/weak. He's an excellent chain moving slot WR- and that's about it. He's not going to make plays in the air or down the field or scare a defense deep or take a top off a defense.

I'm not sure what looking at UM and OSU's rushing output vs Rutgers does for anything.  But look at the best defense they've faced:
UM could run on Iowa and OSU couldn't.
Then you look at the defense one of them destroyed on the ground:  PSU
UM embarrassed them, OSU held under 100.
Looking at the average defenses they've both mauled isn't very useful:  it IS the bath water.
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I guess I should have been more specific and said OSU can't run against a good defense. 
And to be fair, just because they haven't doesn't mean they can't.
But taking in all the information, does anyone believe they'll run on UM?  If you can't run, you're one-dimensional.  If you're one-dimensional, you're right where the DC wants you to be. 
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So in lieu of all that, I shorthanded it with "OSU can't."  And that's my error.  I deeply apologize.

No apology necessary.  Your talking football and giving your opinion.

like Medina said up thread, it’s not really an apples to apples comparison. These two teams, Ohio State and Michigan, operate in two completely different ways and both very successfully.

you mentioned Iowa. Let’s take a closer look although with the caveat that Michigan played them on the road and Ohio State played them at home and I think that makes a world of difference.

The buckeyes only rush for 66 yards, but on only 30 attempts.  Yeah they had 394 yards of offenses and won by 34 points!  Michigan had their second lowest rushing total that day of 172 yards but on 42 attempts.  They won by 13 points.  They were never in danger of losing, they just did what Michigan does and choked out Iowa over time.

let’s look at Penn State.  Michigan slaughtered them and had 418 yards rushing but On 55 attempts.  Think about that. 55 attempts. They simply wore Penn State down. They had each of their three studs, Corum, Edwards, and McCarthy each have one very long run. All three were later in the game.  Those three runs alone were 150 of their 418 yards.  They still count and are extremely impressive but they really skew the numbers and belie the fact that Penn State was actually doing a decent job of containing Michigan‘s running game early on.  Penn State only gained 111 yards but on only 22 attempts so we’re actually successful at a 5 yards per carry clip.  Ohio State only had 26 attempts against Penn State for a respectable 3.8 yard average which is better than what Penn State did against Ohio State, with only a 3.4 average.  Again the caveat is that Ohio State played in happy Valley and that’s a night and day difference just like Iowa and Michigan was.

teams try different things against these two. Pretty much everyone who over focuses on stopping Ohio State’s run game gets burned badly with the passing game.  Rutgers actually had a game plan to shut down Ohio State’s passing game. They had a tough zone with like six defensive backs sitting three across at two levels. So Ohio State ran the ball 34 times for 252 yards and 7.4 yards per carry. They won by 39 points.  By contrast Michigan ran the ball 53 times against Rutgers for 282 yards or a 5.3 yards per carry.


Styles make fight.  Last season OSU showed early on that they struggled with solid running teams, when they lost to Oregon.  Michigan kicked their ass based on that.  Ohio State did not have much trouble moving the ball and scoring points, even in shitty weather.  They just could not get the ball back because they could not even come remotely close to stopping Michigan’s run game.  That could happen again this year but Ohio State is playing the run exponentially better this year with a new defensive coordinator and the players are at the very least in position. They are in the top 10 in rushing defense. 

do you remember the Ohio State versus Notre Dame game? Notre Dame completely sat, or try to, Ohio State‘s passing game. Of course then their best receiver got hurt early in the game. So when they got to the second half Ohio State went to the run game to dominate, score points, and put the game away. And don’t laugh at Notre Dame, their defensive line is their strength and probably one of the better ones in college football.

Now one thing you pointed out is right on- that at times this season Day thought he could line up and run his basic running plays, and have success.  And he was wrong.  His vanilla run calls have been very predictable most of the time because most of the Time he can get away with it. When the other team hast to respect a brutal attack from the passing game it makes it easier to run.    But-Like last Saturday at Northwestern when there was no passing game due to 50 mile an hour wind gusts, he finally change colors in the second half and called some misdirections, pin and pulls, which Ohio State rarely runs,, and some quarterback runs off of the zone read.  Very successful.

also, I think Michigan can be passed on, at least by a high quality passing game.  OSU definitely has that. 

mix all that together and at least in theory, you should have one hell of a game.  I know I wouldn’t bet on it.

Stroud should run more.

I definitely don't want to see our superstar QB carrying 20 times a game but it does seem that once or twice a quarter would give opposing defenses something else to worry about. 

That, I think, is the name of the game. As @Honestbuckeye pointed out a few teams have approached tOSU with a good plan to contain tOSU's passing game and tOSU was able to run on those teams. Others have come in with a plan to stop tOSU's running game and tOSU was able to pass on them. Northwestern had the weather to neutralize tOSU's passing game and focused nearly all of their efforts on stopping tOSU's running game and more-or-less contained tOSU's offense. 

Still, I think this year's tOSU is a lot better than last year's because the defense is a lot better. 

defense is definitely better imo, but I think the offense took a step back. which was only natural considering they've basically lost THREE 1st round NFL WR's from last year. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to the NFL (who are both studs as rookies btw), and JSN who might've been best of the bunch- has been out all year with injury.

I think Marv Jr is a phenomenal WR, but he's not better than the aforementioned 3 WR's. Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming are really good college players and have NFL futures- but again- they aren't on the same level as the aformentioned 3 WR's. These guys are all really good, but they ain't what OSU had at WR last year. Olave was as polished a receiver and maybe the best deep ball dude in the country last year. Garrett Wilson was a freakish route runner with insane ball skills. JSN just might've been the best all-around WR in the country. It was an embarassment of riches at OSU last year at WR. And what's disgusting to think is Jameson Williams was on that roster as well in the spring. Might've been the best collection of WR talent on one college team ever.

I do think that JSN being out has a big impact because it isn't just him. If JSN is in and fully healthy he gets the opponent's best DB which gives Marv an easier time against DB #2 and Fleming an easier time against DB #3. Not only does tOSU pick up JSN, but the other guys' production improves as well.

let’s look at Penn State.  Michigan slaughtered them and had 418 yards rushing but On 55 attempts.  Think about that. 55 attempts. They simply wore Penn State down. They had each of their three studs, Corum, Edwards, and McCarthy each have one very long run. All three were later in the game.  Those three runs alone were 150 of their 418 yards.  They still count and are extremely impressive but they really skew the numbers and belie the fact that Penn State was actually doing a decent job of containing Michigan‘s running game early on.  Penn State only gained 111 yards but on only 22 attempts so we’re actually successful at a 5 yards per carry clip.  Ohio State only had 26 attempts against Penn State for a respectable 3.8 yard average which is better than what Penn State did against Ohio State, with only a 3.4 average.  Again the caveat is that Ohio State played in happy Valley and that’s a night and day difference just like Iowa and Michigan was.

The stat I would most like to see added to box scores is median rush (both by player and overall). Your comment here gets at the reason. The long runs skew the average because there are almost never any counterbalancing long losses. Other than sacks (which shouldn't count in rushing stats anyway), runs for a loss are usually a loss of just one or two yards. Once in a while a sweep of some sort will get blown up for a four or five yard loss but those are rare and still isn't near as big (of a negative) as a long run can be as a positive.

The game I always think of is the 2006 #1 vs #2 edition of THE GAME. For this comparison I'm only considering runs by RB's. That leaves out four QB runs for each team (-33 yards for M, 12 yards for tOSU) and WR's (M had three of 1 8, and 12 yards).

Runs by running backs in the 2006 tOSU/M game:

• Mike Hart carried 23 times for Michigan and gained 142 yards for an average of 6.2 per carry.
• Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells carried a combined 23 times for Ohio State for 195 yards for an average of 8.5 per carry.

That makes it seem like both teams were running at will. They weren't. Both totals are substantially impacted by a few long runs:

• Mike Hart had a long of 33 and another carry that went for 30. The 63 yards gained on those two represent nearly half of his total for the game. He gained 79 yards on his other 21 carries for an average of 3.8 per carry.
• Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells had long carries of 56 and 52 yards respectively. The 108 yards gained on those two represent more than half of their combined total for the game. They gained 87 yards on their other 21 carries for an average of 4.1 per carry.

Leaving aside the long runs, neither team rushed very effectively. Averages of 3.8 and 4.1 sound ok because three average carries still move the sticks but averages don't work that way. Those averages are enough to get some first downs but they will not sustain many long drives.

The stat I would most like to see added to box scores is median rush (both by player and overall). Your comment here gets at the reason. The long runs skew the average because there are almost never any counterbalancing long losses. Other than sacks (which shouldn't count in rushing stats anyway), runs for a loss are usually a loss of just one or two yards. Once in a while a sweep of some sort will get blown up for a four or five yard loss but those are rare and still isn't near as big (of a negative) as a long run can be as a positive.

The game I always think of is the 2006 #1 vs #2 edition of THE GAME. For this comparison I'm only considering runs by RB's. That leaves out four QB runs for each team (-33 yards for M, 12 yards for tOSU) and WR's (M had three of 1 8, and 12 yards).

Runs by running backs in the 2006 tOSU/M game:

• Mike Hart carried 23 times for Michigan and gained 142 yards for an average of 6.2 per carry.
• Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells carried a combined 23 times for Ohio State for 195 yards for an average of 8.5 per carry.

That makes it seem like both teams were running at will. They weren't. Both totals are substantially impacted by a few long runs:

• Mike Hart had a long of 33 and another carry that went for 30. The 63 yards gained on those two represent nearly half of his total for the game. He gained 79 yards on his other 21 carries for an average of 3.8 per carry.
• Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells had long carries of 56 and 52 yards respectively. The 108 yards gained on those two represent more than half of their combined total for the game. They gained 87 yards on their other 21 carries for an average of 4.1 per carry.

Leaving aside the long runs, neither team rushed very effectively. Averages of 3.8 and 4.1 sound ok because three average carries still move the sticks but averages don't work that way. Those averages are enough to get some first downs but they will not sustain many long drives.

That's how rushing works, though.  That's why it's incorporated into my Whoa Nellie game.