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Lazy voters.

it's all about the losses

I don’t understand the fictional. Is that what you are projecting at the end of the season, prior to bowls?

I think he is doing a couple things:

First, he is using the model under discussion where the top-6 league Champions and six at-large teams get in. I also *THINK* that the first round byes are reserved for league Champions.

Second, like a lot of NCAA Tournament forecasters do, he is just assuming that the highest ranked team in a league will be the league Champion. Thus, #2 tOSU is the assumed B1G Champion. 

Following that logic and the existing rankings I get the following playoff seeds:

• #1 UGA (presumed SEC Champ)
• #2 tOSU (presumed B1G Champ)
• #4 TCU (presumed B12 Champ)
• #6 Oregon (presumed P12 Champ)
• #3 Michigan, at large
• #5 Tennessee, at large
• #7 LSU, at large 
• #8 USC, at large 
• #9 Bama, at large
• #10 Clemson (presumed ACC Champ)
• #11 Ole Miss, at large 
• #17 Tulane (presumed tallest midget)

So then the match-ups in the first round are hosted by the #5-8 seeds:

• Tulane at Michigan 
• Ole Miss at Tennessee 
• Clemson at LSU
• Bama at USC

However, I thought the model under discussion reseeded after the first round. Maybe that was just wishful thinking on my part because I think it should. 

If it doesn't, it is simple, you get the second round matchups that @OrangeAfroMan laid out:

• Tulane/Michigan vs Oregon
• Ole Miss/Tennessee vs TCU
• Clemson/LSU vs tOSU
• Bama/USC vs UGA

However, if we reseed then we cannot determine the second round games until we know the first round results. 

Looking at your team's game as an example:

• If Michigan wins they'll be the #3 seed and play the #6 seed.
• If Tulane upsets Michigan in the Big House they'll be the #8 seed and play UGA.

So let's say the winners are the four home teams. (SIDE NOTE FOR @jgvol and other SEC fans, the result of the Bama/USC game is irrelevant as far as seeding/match-ups go because they are #8/9 and thus interchangeable so you can just mentally replace "USC" with "Bama" to get the version where Bama wins out in LA) The second round games would be:

• UGA vs USC
• tOSU vs LSU
• Michigan vs Oregon
• TCU vs Tennessee 

But note that one upset can change all four games. If Tulane upsets Michigan we get:

• UGA vs Tulane
• tOSU vs USC
• TCU vs LSU
• Tennessee vs Oregon 

Isn't UT Martin a FCS school?

UT-Knoxville was, for the past decade or so.

I think he is doing a couple things:

First, he is using the model under discussion where the top-6 league Champions and six at-large teams get in. I also *THINK* that the first round byes are reserved for league Champions.

Second, like a lot of NCAA Tournament forecasters do, he is just assuming that the highest ranked team in a league will be the league Champion. Thus, #2 tOSU is the assumed B1G Champion.

Following that logic and the existing rankings I get the following playoff seeds:

• #1 UGA (presumed SEC Champ)
• #2 tOSU (presumed B1G Champ)
• #4 TCU (presumed B12 Champ)
• #6 Oregon (presumed P12 Champ)
• #3 Michigan, at large
• #5 Tennessee, at large
• #7 LSU, at large
• #8 USC, at large
• #9 Bama, at large
• #10 Clemson (presumed ACC Champ)
• #11 Ole Miss, at large
• #17 Tulane (presumed tallest midget)

So then the match-ups in the first round are hosted by the #5-8 seeds:

• Tulane at Michigan
• Ole Miss at Tennessee
• Clemson at LSU
• Bama at USC

However, I thought the model under discussion reseeded after the first round. Maybe that was just wishful thinking on my part because I think it should.

If it doesn't, it is simple, you get the second round matchups that @OrangeAfroMan laid out:

• Tulane/Michigan vs Oregon
• Ole Miss/Tennessee vs TCU
• Clemson/LSU vs tOSU
• Bama/USC vs UGA

However, if we reseed then we cannot determine the second round games until we know the first round results.

Looking at your team's game as an example:

• If Michigan wins they'll be the #3 seed and play the #6 seed.
• If Tulane upsets Michigan in the Big House they'll be the #8 seed and play UGA.

So let's say the winners are the four home teams. (SIDE NOTE FOR @jgvol and other SEC fans, the result of the Bama/USC game is irrelevant as far as seeding/match-ups go because they are #8/9 and thus interchangeable so you can just mentally replace "USC" with "Bama" to get the version where Bama wins out in LA) The second round games would be:

• UGA vs USC
• tOSU vs LSU
• Michigan vs Oregon
• TCU vs Tennessee

But note that one upset can change all four games. If Tulane upsets Michigan we get:

• UGA vs Tulane
• tOSU vs USC
• TCU vs LSU
• Tennessee vs Oregon

I still like it!

Big 12 then Pac-12.  Sweet. 

Moonwalk into the finals and get crushed by UGA again, or give Ohio St. a good game in a probable loss.

I still like it!

Big 12 then Pac-12.  Sweet. 

Moonwalk into the finals and get crushed by UGA again, or give Ohio St. a good game in a probable loss.

Tenneasee's path does look highly favorable but the reality is that the playoff format DOES impact the rankings. It shouldn't, but it does. The best example is the very first year of the playoff. After the CG's Florida State was 13-0, ACC Champions, and defending National Champions.

On spite of being undefeated and the defending Champions, FSU was ranked #3 behind two 1-loss league Champions.

You will never convince me that would have happened if there had only been a 2-team BCSNCG.

I think the same thing applies here. The CFP Committee has TCU at #4 not because they actually believe that TCU is the fourth best team but because they are not going to exclude an undefeated P5 Champion for a 1-loss Tennessee/Michigan/tOSU team that failed to qualify for their CG.

If you forced the committee members to lay down cash on a game between TCU and Tennessee/Michigan/tOSU none of them would take the Frogs but they still aren't excluding an undefeated P5.

Now if we actually had a 12-team playoff and TCU had a guaranteed path into it then I think TCU would be at least two spots lower.

Suddenly LSU fans started chattering about how no 2-loss team has ever been in the playoff, how that might come to an end, and what needs to happen. 

It's cute that they think if they beat Arkansas and A&M they have any chance to get past UGA in Atlanta.  Talk about putting the cart before the horse. 

2-loss team shouldn't get in imo. Committee did the right thing in 2016 not putting Penn State in even though they were a conference champ at 11-2. Penn State got beat down inn Ann Arbor that year even worse than LSU got beat down in Knoxville this year.

I just feel like if you have 2 losses + an absolute beat down, yeah you probably shouldn't get in. You're right though, it's probably all a moot point as Georgia looks pretty damn unbeatable.

Could definitely see LSU slipping up at Arkansas as well. Has the feelings of a let down/trap game after they just blew their load at home at night in a monster game vs BAMA. Hard for 18-22 year old kids to turn around and get locked in and focused and back up and go on the road after a monumental win like that.

Tennessee beat LSU at LSU.

sheesh. even worse. I think Tennessee would deserve to get in over LSU, even if they somehow squeaked by Georgia in the SEC CG. Same way a 1-loss OSU got in over a 2-loss Penn State B1G Champ in 2016.