Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I recall when folks thought the four teams might be only SEC-B1G.  I suppose it's still possible, but won't be Bama.  Had Tennessee lost a close one that wasn't 27-6 at one point....

So, let's say Ohio State beats UM 31-24.  Does UM still get in over Tennessee?  The Vols would have two wins over top ten ranked teams (as it stands).  UM has a win over PSU and ...  Rutgers.

If Oregon wins the Pac at 12-1 I think they are a lock.

Let's say Michigan beats OSU 31-24. Does Tennessee get in over OSU?

I do think you're right, a 12-1 PAC champ is probably a lock to get in. Don't think they should, but they will. 

yeah they can run the ball, just not effectively as Michigan can. Conversely Michigan can pass the ball, just not effectively as OSU can.

They have had 4 common opponents;

Penn State: Michigan- 418 rushing yards, OSU- 98 rushing yards
Iowa: Michigan- 172 rushing yards, OSU- 66 rushing yards
MSU: Michigan- 276 rushing yards, OSU- 237 rushing yards
Rutger: Michigan- 282 rushing yards, OSU- 252 rushing yards

All of this probably means nothing. Transitive property is useless in CFB.

My contention has always been that the transitive property is just fine, the problem is lack of data.

If you look at just the PSU comparison it looks like Michigan's rushing is VASTLY better than Ohio State's rushing.

If you look at just the Rutgers comparison it looks like they are about even.

Looking at all four it looks like Michigan's rushing is better than Ohio State's but not by a humongous margin.

My concern for Ohio State is the trend. They've been largely ineffective rushing the ball in their last three games. Prior to that they looked fine.

Deeper look at rushing against Rutgers:
Michigan ran for 30 more yards (282 vs 252) but it took them 19 more carries to get there:

• Michigan rushed 53 times for 282 yards, 5.3 per carry.
• Ohio State rushed 34 times for 252 yards, 7.4 per carry.

I'll take Ohio State's 7.4 per carry over Michigan's 5.3 every day and twice on Saturday. 


That same analysis doesn't apply to the other common opponents:
Penn State:

• Michigan rushed 55 times for 418 yards, 7.6 per carry.
• Ohio State rushed 26 times for 98 yards, 3.8 per carry.

Iowa:

• Michigan rushed 42 times for 172 yards, 4.1 per carry.
• Ohio State rushed 30 times for 66 yards, 2.2 per carry.

Michigan State:

• Michigan rushed 52 times for 276 yards, 5.3 per carry. 
• Ohio State rushed 46 times for 237 yards, 5.2 per carry.

So Ohio State was significantly better against Rutgers. Michigan was significantly better against Iowa and Penn State, and the two were about even against MSU.

Let's say Michigan beats OSU 31-24. Does Tennessee get in over OSU?

I do think you're right, a 12-1 PAC champ is probably a lock to get in. Don't think they should, but they will.

I think one problem for the tOSU/M loser is that the host plays the tougher schedule. 

The league schedules are going to be awfully close, maybe slightly tougher for Michigan but there is no comparison of OOC schedules. 

If this were an odd year and Ohio State lost a close one at Michigan then Ohio State would have a road loss to a CFP team and a solid schedule with the OOC win over Notre Dame.

Instead the team with the better schedule is the host so the loser will either be a team with a home loss or a team with a weak schedule. 

I'd look at major wins, decent wins, degree of losses to who, etc.  A lot of games are just nothings to me.  The Vols will have two tidy looking wins, they benefit if Bama and LSU win out of course.  Pitt is a nothing win, really negative because it was close, but also early.

What wins would Michigan have?

yeah good point. Just a Penn State team that should have 10 wins if they hold serve. Bad year in the B1G. Michigan avoided Wisconsin- who is down this year- and Sparty is really bad, and while Iowa has an excellent D they have an all-time bad O so makes it hard to call it a great win. Michigan almost has to win on the road in Columbus, fair or not and they did it to themselves taking UCLA off the schedule. Had they played UCLA and won early on that'd have had that in their back pocket. 

yeah good point. Just a Penn State team that should have 10 wins if they hold serve. Bad year in the B1G. Michigan avoided Wisconsin- who is down this year- and Sparty is really bad, and while Iowa has an excellent D they have an all-time bad O so makes it hard to call it a great win. Michigan almost has to win on the road in Columbus, fair or not and they did it to themselves taking UCLA off the schedule. Had they played UCLA and won early on that'd have had that in their back pocket.

And the thing is that even if they had lost to UCLA it really wouldn't hurt them, they'd still need to beat tOSU.

I pretty much thing the UM-OSU winner is in and the loser is out. 

Whether we agree or not UT is in as a one loss team over any team from Big.

you're probably right. SEC will get in a 2nd team before the B1G. No doubt about it. 

MICH-OSU control their own destiny. Win, you're in. As the great Al Davis said, "just win baby". 

On the other hand, one could argue LSU and Bama are over rated.  Bama has a thin win OOC and LSU lost theirs.  They are both rated top ten right now, or close, but who have they beat really?  Bama could lose again and start looking like a fairly modest 9-3 team (with two last second losses on the road).  LSU could lose twice more, realistically, and not look good.  The Vols need both to continue winning and for the UGA loss to look less bad in time.

But then again, the Vols will be ranked 5 or 6 or maybe 7 in the CFP so they don't have far to go up.  Fun stuff.

One could argue that everyone except Georgia is overrated.