header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Playoff Rankings

 (Read 6782 times)

MrNubbz

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 17099
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2022, 11:12:16 AM »
1) Dawgs
2)Skunk Weasels
3) tOSU
4)USC - Going with 847 here
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37390
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2022, 12:34:47 PM »
College GameDay is heading back to Austin, Texas for a matchup between the Longhorns and TCU. The crew makes its return trip to the Lone Star State with major College Football Playoff implications on the line.

TCU is a perfect 9-0 on the season, fighting for a spot in the playoff for the first time in program history. And with losses by Clemson, Tennessee and Alabama looming, their odds look better than ever if they can win out.

Obviously, that starts in Austin, which has already hosted the crew before in Week 2 when the Longhorns took on Alabama.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MrNubbz

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 17099
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2022, 12:55:04 PM »
They win out they are in,of course the Horns wouldn't mind kicking the chair out from under them. In the las ten years the Frogs are 7-3 straight up vs the Horns
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71156
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2022, 02:02:28 PM »
AP Poll"

2022 College Football Rankings for Week 11 | ESPN

I think it would be interesting to project LV odds and see who would beat who and rank'em accordingly.  I'm not sure who would be favored over Alabama right now, probably only the top 3 teams.

TCU is a heavy dog to Texas but on the road.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18799
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2022, 02:57:24 PM »
I don't understand why OSU is ranked by most everyone over Michigan.  One can run the ball and the other can't.  That means something to me.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5791
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2022, 05:10:44 PM »
I don't understand why OSU is ranked by most everyone over Michigan.  One can run the ball and the other can't.  That means something to me.
You could certainly make a case for Michigan to be ranked higher based on the eye test. I probably would, although I would go back-and-forth like I do lol. 

But-that Ohio State can’t run the ball is a completely false narrative.  They are not too far off of Michigan in terms of average yards per carry. Michigan is 5.65 and Ohio State is 5.45 ( better than Georgia by the way). Michigan runs the ball 45 times a game which is substantially more than Ohio State. 

between Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Oregon, Penn State, Illinois, Clemson ( I could keep going with highly ranked teams or teams perceived to be running teams ) who had the most rushing yards yesterday?    Ohio State. And that was in a situation where the wind at 30-50 mph gave the other team the knowledge that there was zero passing threat.

Ohio State also has much better passing #s
any stat you measure. They lead the nation in scoring offense and are in the top ten in scoring defense.  ( I believe UM is top 2).

Michigan is elite in rushing defense- 2.6 per carry. OSU is not far behind at 3.03

We know these stats are impacted by “ who you play”, for example, Iowa is top 5 in scoring defense but OSU put more than 50 on them.

So, let’s look closer at who they played.  They now have 4 common opponents. Ohio State won by a bigger margin in three of those four games. 

and we can’t even look at Michigan’s out of conference schedule, there is no comparison.

The only other game is that Ohio State beat Wisconsin by 34 points, and yesterday they beat Michigan’s other opponent Maryland, beat by seven.

again I’ve never believed in the transitive property in football, and I firmly believe the statistics mean Jack shit with these two teams have to play each other. I wouldn’t touch that game with a five dollar bet. Just answering your question of why some people would rank Ohio State had a Michigan right now.

Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71156
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2022, 05:13:43 PM »
I wish somehow OSU and UM could settle this on the field ...

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5791
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2022, 05:17:41 PM »
I wish somehow OSU and UM could settle this on the field ...
That’s my point.  That and that Ohio State can’t run the ball is a completely false narrative.

Ohio State does not want to be a power running team. That does not end well, just see Illinois yesterday for a recent example.

both of these teams use conflict to create a running place successfully.  If you shut down their running game they can beat you with a pass and vice versa.  Indiana held Michigan to 165 yards rushing and Michigan still kick their ass.  In today’s game you have to have balance and use the run to make room for the pass, and a pass to make room for the room and Ohio State is very good at that and so is Michigan
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 14324
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2022, 05:24:06 PM »
That’s my point.  That and that Ohio State can’t run the ball is a completely false narrative.

Ohio State does not want to be a power running team. That does not end well, just see Illinois yesterday for a recent example.

both of these teams use conflict to create a running place successfully.  If you shut down their running game they can beat you with a pass and vice versa.  Indiana held Michigan to 165 yards rushing and Michigan still kick their ass.  In today’s game you have to have balance and use the run to make room for the pass, and a pass to make room for the room and Ohio State is very good at that and so is Michigan
that was one of the only games Michigan really threw the ball often. Indiana was keeping extra men in the box and run blitzing the sh*t out of Michigan- and JJ threw for 300+ yards- removing the OOC- that's the only time he's ever thrown for more than 220 yards. 

Indiana and Iowa did the best of any teams all year slowing down the Michigan rushing attack, and Michigan still went for 165 on Indiana and 172 on Iowa. They went about trying to slow down Michigan's rushing attack in different ways. Iowa didn't run blitz and load the box quite as hard as Indiana did. 

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 14324
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2022, 05:24:56 PM »
I wish somehow OSU and UM could settle this on the field ...
should be an epic one for the ages. it's shaping up to be the most epic OSU-MICH battle since 2006 or 2016.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71156
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2022, 05:27:13 PM »
I know, it's very akin to saying UGA just wants to run the ball and can't pass downfield (or that Tennessee only passes and can't run).  UGA averages 320 passing, and it would be more except for the blowouts, 325 passing attempts vs 323 rushing.  Some teams gets labled because it's facile.

I'd lean a skoch to Michigan right now, but think OSU beats them at home in a classic.

UGA may have a hangover with MissState.


Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5791
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2022, 05:35:26 PM »
that was one of the only games Michigan really threw the ball often. Indiana was keeping extra men in the box and run blitzing the sh*t out of Michigan- and JJ threw for 300+ yards- removing the OOC- that's the only time he's ever thrown for more than 220 yards.

Indiana and Iowa did the best of any teams all year slowing down the Michigan rushing attack, and Michigan still went for 165 on Indiana and 172 on Iowa. They went about trying to slow down Michigan's rushing attack in different ways. Iowa didn't run blitz and load the box quite as hard as Indiana did.
That’s right.  If someone thinks you can beat one of these teams just by slowing down their running game- I don’t buy it. MCCarthy and the speed UM has on the perimeter will make you pay for overplaying the run- and McCarthy can also burn you with his feet.  Both teams make defend the whole field.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 14324
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2022, 05:42:29 PM »
I know, it's very akin to saying UGA just wants to run the ball and can't pass downfield (or that Tennessee only passes and can't run).  UGA averages 320 passing, and it would be more except for the blowouts, 325 passing attempts vs 323 rushing.  Some teams gets labled because it's facile.

I'd lean a skoch to Michigan right now, but think OSU beats them at home in a classic.

UGA may have a hangover with MissState.
Nah. UGA is winning out, they're the best team in the SEC and in 'Merica.

As for OSU-MICH, right now it's a coin flip, pick 'em. OSU should be favored by 3 points simply just because of home field imo. And I'm leaning towards OSU right now because Michigan hasn't won in Columbus since 2000 when Drew Henson was the starting QB. That's a big ask for a 19 year old kid who is a first time starter and will have just 10 starts total under his belt when he goes into that lions den.

Michigan did much better in the red zone converting TD's this past week. Need to see them keep that up vs Nebraska and Illinois and build on it going into Ohio State. Play-calling still goes long stretches of WTF was that. Downfield passing attack still just a mark off. They are oh so close but just inches and feet off- you'd think at some f'ng point it's got to click and pop. JJ never seems to be in a rhythm- I think this is in large part a side effect of clunky all over the place offensive play-calling- but he's making plays with his feet more and he's limiting the big mistakes- he's getting better every week just running the offense and taking what defense gives him. They still really aren't featuring him in the run game, he's had no designed QB runs and seems like they must be telling him to give the ball and not keep it on the zone read no matter what bc it just seems like he's always making the wrong read on that play and handing the ball off no matter what. They need to get his legs more involved in the offense if they want to beat Ohio State. My guess is they are trying to limit his carries and running until the OSU game or until they get Cade McNamara back healthy to be the back-up- which would make sense bc with McNamara out if JJ gets hurt they're f**ked.

Michigan needs to get Donovan Edwards more involved in the offense as well. He should be getting 12-15 carries a game minimum and he should be getting 5-10 targets a game at receiver minimum. They need to feature this kid in the offense A LOT. Corum is freaking awesome, but Edwards can just do so much more as a receiver and he's got that same home run hitting speed that Corum has.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18799
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Rankings
« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2022, 09:06:20 PM »
You could certainly make a case for Michigan to be ranked higher based on the eye test. I probably would, although I would go back-and-forth like I do lol. 

But-that Ohio State can’t run the ball is a completely false narrative.  They are not too far off of Michigan in terms of average yards per carry. Michigan is 5.65 and Ohio State is 5.45 ( better than Georgia by the way). Michigan runs the ball 45 times a game which is substantially more than Ohio State. 

between Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Oregon, Penn State, Illinois, Clemson ( I could keep going with highly ranked teams or teams perceived to be running teams ) who had the most rushing yards yesterday?    Ohio State. And that was in a situation where the wind at 30-50 mph gave the other team the knowledge that there was zero passing threat.

Ohio State also has much better passing #s
any stat you measure. They lead the nation in scoring offense and are in the top ten in scoring defense.  ( I believe UM is top 2).

Michigan is elite in rushing defense- 2.6 per carry. OSU is not far behind at 3.03
You're kind of sweeping the numbers under the rug as being close, but they're not.

A team with a lower yards per carry average AND fewer carries isn't "close" to being as productive.  Same with the rush D....0.4 ypc isn't really close.  OSU faces more rushes AND allows more ypc....the volume matters.  It's almost like a multiplier on the "not far behind" per-attempt data.

Just an FYI.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.