header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 [5] 6   Go Down
Author

Topic: Playoff Possibilities

 (Read 3277 times)

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #56 on: November 28, 2022, 03:53:34 PM »
Quote from: Kris60 on November 28, 2022, 03:31:03 PM
My problem is simply this.  By Sagarin’s own metrics TCU has a better record against tougher schedules than either Ohio St or Bama played, yet he still has TCU ranked behind them.

Now, would I take take Bama or Ohio St over TCU on a neutral field?  Yes.  But I also would have taken Ohio St to win at home against Michigan.  They got beat by 19. Sagarin still has Michigan behind Ohio St.  At some point the results have to trump what we think.
I know it sounds self-serving since it is my team but I mentioned upthread that there is a fundamental underlying debate as to whether it is tougher to play three pretty good teams or one really good team.

By Sagarin’s rankings TCU is undefeated with their best opponent being #8 Texas. Ohio State is also undefeated against teams ranked #8 and below plus the Buckeyes have a two-score win over #6 Penn State.

TCU's SoS is #21 and tOSU's is #44 but the Buckeyes have played two teams ranked higher than any TCU opponent. That makes sense because the B1G is top-heavy. They have three teams in Sagarin’s top-6 and no more until #22 Illinois. The B12 is more balanced with five in the top-20 but nobody as good as the B1G's big three. The top five B12 teams per Sagrin are:
  • #7 TCU
  • #8 Texas
  • #10 KSU
  • #19 Oklahoma
  • #20 Baylor

Ohio State doesn't have any wins over teams ranked in the top-5 (0-1) but neither does TCU (0-0).

Finally, and I really should have just left it at this:
Quote from: Kris60 on November 28, 2022, 03:31:03 PM
Now, would I take take Bama or Ohio St over TCU on a neutral field?  Yes.  But I also would have taken Ohio St to win at home against Michigan.  They got beat by 19. Sagarin still has Michigan behind Ohio St.  At some point the results have to trump what we think.
If you yourself would take tOSU or Bama over TCU on a neutral field then what is your argument with Sagrin exactly?
Logged

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2514
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #57 on: November 28, 2022, 05:00:49 PM »
Because when I rank teams I put more emphasis on results than I do my personal opinion.  I feel comfortable ranking TCU ahead of Bama and Ohio St even though I think they aren’t as good.

Logged

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37556
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #58 on: November 28, 2022, 05:04:57 PM »
:sign0065:
Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #59 on: November 28, 2022, 05:10:00 PM »
Quote from: Kris60 on November 28, 2022, 05:00:49 PM
Because when I rank teams I put more emphasis on results than I do my personal opinion.  I feel comfortable ranking TCU ahead of Bama and Ohio St even though I think they aren’t as good.
Well then you doing something that Sagrin isn't even attempting to do. 

He is trying to come up with predictive point spreads for games. You are ranking teams based in large part on what they "deserve".

I get it. A lot of people feel that only league Champions should be considered for the CFP on the basis that you can't be the best in the nation if you aren't even the best in your own league. 

That is a whole separate debate. Sagarin’s rankings take none of that into consideration and simply rank teams based on results. My understanding is that he has formulas that attempt to account for things like garbage time points by the loser that make a result look closer than the game and late points by the winner that make a game look less close than it was.
Logged

MrNubbz

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 17160
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #60 on: November 28, 2022, 05:29:47 PM »
Quote from: Kris60 on November 28, 2022, 05:00:49 PM
Because when I rank teams I put more emphasis on results than I do my personal opinion.  I feel comfortable ranking TCU ahead of Bama and Ohio St even though I think they aren’t as good.
Bama might back in losing by 4 pts vs 2 teams ranked in the top ten on the road
Logged
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #61 on: November 28, 2022, 05:31:43 PM »
Looking at two teams, I think it is helpful to look at all of their games so here are TCU and tOSU's schedules with opponents sorted by Sagrin ranking:

Ohio State's loss is hard to compare to TCU's schedule because TCU hasn't played anyone that good.  For that matter, TCU's best opponent isn't as good as the PSU team that tOSU beat by two scores.  Both teams have some clunkers that show up as outliers here but TCU has a slew of one score wins over:

  • #8 Texas by 7
  • #20 Baylor by 1
  • #33 OkSU by 3 (in double OT)
  • #55 Kansas by 7
  • #57 SMU by 8


Logged

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37556
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #62 on: November 28, 2022, 05:42:08 PM »
did you simply re-post this?

or do I have deja brew?
Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2514
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #63 on: November 28, 2022, 06:16:26 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 28, 2022, 05:31:43 PM
Looking at two teams, I think it is helpful to look at all of their games so here are TCU and tOSU's schedules with opponents sorted by Sagrin ranking:

Ohio State's loss is hard to compare to TCU's schedule because TCU hasn't played anyone that good.  For that matter, TCU's best opponent isn't as good as the PSU team that tOSU beat by two scores.  Both teams have some clunkers that show up as outliers here but TCU has a slew of one score wins over:

  • #8 Texas by 7
  • #20 Baylor by 1
  • #33 OkSU by 3 (in double OT)
  • #55 Kansas by 7
  • #57 SMU by 8



Is it that hard to compare though?  You’re presenting it in a way that makes it sound like playing the 3 and 6 rated teams is miles apart from playing the 8 and 10 rated teams.  I’m not sure it is.
Logged

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18874
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #64 on: November 28, 2022, 07:20:31 PM »
It's clearly about MOV, as I suggested earlier.
There are five single-digit outcomes on that list, and they're all TCU's.  It's pretty simple.
Logged
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2514
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #65 on: November 28, 2022, 08:21:24 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 28, 2022, 07:20:31 PM
It's clearly about MOV, as I suggested earlier.
There are five single-digit outcomes on that list, and they're all TCU's.  It's pretty simple.
No, I think you’re right.  In fact, if TCU were to beat Ohio St head to head in a close game I’m not sure it would be enough to get them ahead of Ohio St in Sagarin. 

Here’s my all time favorite Sagarin ranking.  In 2017, Stanford finished 9-5 against the 10 SOS.  USC finished 11-3 against the 11 SOS and beat Stanford not once, but twice.  Final Sagarin rankings?

14. Stanford
15. USC

I’m guessing a big reason for that was Stanford out scored its opponents by 135 points and USC out scored its opponents by 92.
Logged

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 11240
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #66 on: November 28, 2022, 09:57:17 PM »

What if all five of the CCG favorites not only lose but get blown out by the underdog? 

We're talking blow outs ranging in the magnitude of S Carolina over Tennessee to Georgia over Oregon here. 
Logged
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37556
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #67 on: November 28, 2022, 10:03:21 PM »
mayhem!
Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17702
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #68 on: November 28, 2022, 10:04:16 PM »
It'd be quite entertaining.  I'm cool with it.
Logged

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2514
  • Liked:
Re: Playoff Possibilities
« Reply #69 on: November 28, 2022, 10:08:58 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 28, 2022, 09:57:17 PM
What if all five of the CCG favorites not only lose but get blown out by the underdog?

We're talking blow outs ranging in the magnitude of S Carolina over Tennessee to Georgia over Oregon here.
It wouldn’t matter for UGA and Michigan.  They’re in.  It would probably knock USC and TCU out in favor of Ohio St and Bama, which would make me sick.  Sitting at home benefiting from teams losing in CCG that you couldn’t get to leaves a bad taste in my mouth.  When Bama did it in 2017 I hated it.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 [5] 6   Go Up
« previous next »
 
Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.
Dock Signs-WeatherPROOF

Custom Mahogany Shadow Box