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Topic: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week

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medinabuckeye1

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Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« on: November 27, 2024, 11:14:09 AM »
Teams are listed by CFP Ranking with each teams' remaining schedule:

  • 11-0 Oregon, vs UWash, B1GCG:  The Ducks are in.  Even in a worst-case-scenario they'd finish 11-2 and be in.  
  • 10-1 Ohio State, vs M, B1GCG (if they beat M):  The Bucks are in.  Worst case is 10-2 and that is enough.  
  • 10-1 Texas, at #20 aTm, SECCG (if they beat aTm):  The Horns are in.  
  • 10-1 Penn State, vs UMD:  The Lions are obviously in if they beat Maryland.  A loss to the Terps would make their situation precarious but they would likely still sneak in.  
  • 10-1 Notre Dame, at USC:  IMHO the Irish are in if they win and out if they lose.  10-2 is good enough for most teams but a 10-2 Notre Dame would have two bad losses and their only good win was way back in August.  The one thing that would likely get a 10-2 Notre Dame into the CFP would be for aTm to win the SEC because that would REALLY improve ND's quality win.  
  • 10-1 Miami, at Syracuse, ACCCG (if they beat Cuse):  IMHO, a loss to Cuse drops the Canes out.  They'd be borderline at 11-2 with a win over Cuse and a loss to SMU in the ACCCG.  They'd be an auto-bid and get a bye with two wins.  
  • 9-2 Georgia, vs GaTech, SECCG:  I believe that UGA needs one more win to get in.  I think that they would be out at 9-4 so they can't lose to Tech AND lose the SECCG but I believe that 10-3 with a win over Tech and a loss to Tx/aTm gets them in and they'd obviously get an auto-bid with a win in the SECCG.  
  • 9-2 Tennessee, at Vandy:  Tennessee is in with a win and out with a loss.  
  • 10-1 SMU, vs Cal, ACCCG:  SMU obviously gets an auto-bid with an ACCCG win and I think they are pretty obviously out if they lose out so the only question is what if they beat Cal and lose the ACCCG.  That would put them in a precarious spot and, I think, probably out.  
  • 10-1 Indiana, vs Purdue:  The Hoosiers are in if they win and out if they lose.  
  • 10-1 Boise, vs OrSU, MWCCG:  Boise is in if they win out and likely out if they lose either of their last two games.  
  • 9-2 Clemson, vs #15 USCe, ACCCG (if Miami loses to Cuse):  Clemson is the first team out right now but a win over USCe would help and there will probably be an upset somewhere.  If nothing else, either Miami or SMU must necessarily lose.  IMHO, there is a very good chance that they are in with a win over USCe but with a loss they can't make it unless Cuse beats Miami and the Tigers take down the Mustangs.  
  • 8-3 Bama, vs Auburn:  I'm hearing a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over Miami being so close despite three losses but I think it is overblown for two reasons:  First, who would you put ahead of them and second, I don't think they have a very likely path anyway.  
  • 8-3 Ole Miss, vsMissSt:  They are more hopeless than Bama.  
  • 8-3 USCe, at #12 Clemson:  In theory a win at Clemson would jump USCe up to "next team in" ahead of OleMiss, Bama, and Clemson.  
  • 9-2 ASU, at Zona, B12CG (possibly)*:  If they win the B12CG they are in, otherwise no.  
  • 9-2 Tulane, vs Memphis, AACCG:  They need to win out and hope for chaos in either the MWC or the B12.  
  • 9-2 Iowa State, vs #24 KSU, B12CG (possibly)*:  If they win the B12CG they are in, otherwise no.  
  • 9-2 BYU, vs Houston, B12CG (possibly)*:  If they win the B12CG they are in, otherwise no.  
  • 8-3 aTm, vs #3 Texas, SECCG (if they beat Tx):  They are in if they win out and out if they don't.  
  • 8-3 Mizzou, no path.  
  • 9-2 UNLV, vs Nevada, MWCCG (probably if they win):  Winning out including a win over #11 Boise probably jumps them over Tulane and into the CFP.  
  • 8-3 Illinois, no path.  
  • 8-3 Kansas State, at #18 ISU, B12CG (possibly*, maybe):  If they win out and get into and win the B12CG then maybe but that still might not do it because they might be the 6th best league champ.  
  • 8-3 Colorado, vs OkSU, B12CG (possibly)*:  Even winning out might not do it, see KSU.  

The mess in the B12 is really complicating things.  There are four teams with two league losses (ASU, BYU, ISU, Colorado) plus another five with three league losses.  In theory ASU (at 2-6 Zona), BYU (vs 3-5 Houston), ISU (vs 5-3 KSU), and Colorado (vs 0-8 OkSU) could all lose but that is exceedingly unlikely.  
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2024, 11:18:11 AM »
the Big 12 sucks
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2024, 11:24:15 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 27, 2024, 11:18:11 AM
the Big 12 sucks
I don't think they suck, they just don't have a top-end.  IMHO, none of the B12 teams would be competitive with Oregon and tOSU but they have almost a dozen teams that would probably be top-5 in the B1G.  
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utee94

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2024, 11:25:07 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 27, 2024, 11:24:15 AM
I don't think they suck, they just don't have a top-end.  IMHO, none of the B12 teams would be competitive with Oregon and tOSU but they have almost a dozen teams that would probably be top-5 in the B1G. 
Yup, agree.  The B12 has been very entertaining to watch this season, IMO.
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2024, 11:29:06 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 27, 2024, 11:24:15 AM
I don't think they suck, they just don't have a top-end.  IMHO, none of the B12 teams would be competitive with Oregon and tOSU but they have almost a dozen teams that would probably be top-5 in the B1G. 
from #5 to #10, maybe
I don't think their best team wins vs the Hoosiers very often
now if you want to lean on the Cyclone upset of the hawks early on, go ahead
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jgvol

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2024, 12:12:52 PM »
Seems things are working themselves out.

I couldn't find much of a quibble with this weeks rankings/seedings.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2024, 01:30:05 PM »
I guess we need to think about this more like CBB so:

Who are the potential "bid thieves"?

I think that aTm is an obvious possibility.  If they manage to beat Texas this week then Georgia next week, they'll get an auto-bid as SEC Champion at 10-3.  That knocks somebody out.  

The ACC looks like a possibility but I'm not sure.  Based on the current rankings both #6 Miami and #9 SMU would be in while #12 Clemson would be out.  However, IMHO no more than one of SMU/Miami is going to make it.  If they both win this week (Houston, Syracuse) they'll play in the ACCCG and I would guess that the loser will drop out.  OTOH, the committee has a long-standing policy of not punishing teams for playing in their CG so maybe not?  

In theory they could get all three in or it could be as few as one.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2024, 01:31:51 PM »
Who is on the bubble?  

In the current rankings the last two teams in are SMU and Indiana.  The first two out are Clemson and Bama.  
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ELA

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2024, 02:36:39 PM »
Arizona State ending a generational season a generational season against Ohio State.  What's the worst that could happen?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2024, 02:39:25 PM »
Quote from: ELA on November 27, 2024, 02:36:39 PM
Arizona State ending a generational season a generational season against Ohio State.  What's the worst that could happen?

https://youtu.be/inT3Kbmut10?si=8bXW6EGgpP4avjuC
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2024, 02:40:26 PM »
I suspect for ASU, making the playoffs would be a fine year for them even if they get squashed.  I guess playoff teams get paid?
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ELA

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2024, 02:46:47 PM »
Looking at how this would play out under older scenarios, assuming nothing crazy happens...

2 team championship

It would be oddly clean if Texas wins out.  Texas vs. Big Ten champ.  I have a hard time seeing anyone else making a claim.  Now if Texas loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship it would get UGLY, particularly if OSU beat Oregon.  Obviously either way the Oregon/Ohio State winner is in.  But if Oregon loses, they are an 12-1 team that went 1-1 against OSU.  PSU's claim is sort of weak, even as a 1 loss team, simply because it would be tough to put them over Oregon.  Then you have a 2 loss SEC champs Georgia, a 1 loss Notre Dame, and a 1 loss ACC Champ Miami.  I suspect they could say Notre Dame had both a weak schedule, and no conference championship game.  So it would be Oregon, Georgia, Miami.  2 of them are conference champs, so I don't see them making it OSU-Oregon Round III, when Oregon won by 1 at home, and lost on a neutral.  So 2 loss SEC champ Georgia or 1 loss ACC Champ Miami.  Does a 1 loss ACC Champ SMU get the same love as a Miami?

4 team CFP

I think here Big Ten champ and SEC champ are in either way.  Probably ACC champ too, either way, assuming they are 12-1.  Really only the #4 spot is up for debate.  I don't see a 2 loss non champ making it, so if OSU beats Oregon, Oregon is probably still in the conversation, with PSU, Indiana, Notre Dame and Texas (if they lose).  OSU losing I think actually cleans things up.  OSU only picked up that 2nd loss by qualifying for a conference championship that PSU and Indiana did not.  So I think it's cleaner to assume all 3 are out, and Notre Dame is in.

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ELA

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2024, 02:49:37 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 27, 2024, 02:40:26 PM
I suspect for ASU, making the playoffs would be a fine year for them even if they get squashed.  I guess playoff teams get paid?
100% it would be.

MSU had a very good 10-2 year in 2021, that ended with them ranked #10 and playing in a NY6 Peach Bowl against #12 Pitt, where Kenneth Walker, Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison all sat out.

Based on the current rules, they'd have played a road game CFP game at Baylor.  Even if they lost, that would have been better
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Playoff possibilities heading into the final week
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2024, 02:54:44 PM »
With the 11nd-ranked team getting a 4-seed and a 16th-ranked team getting into a 12-team playoff, this will simply be a 2-year black eye of foolishness on the sport.

Idiocy.
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