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Topic: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?

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ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2018, 07:37:15 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 17, 2018, 01:20:52 AM
This is the thing about Alabama - they're beyond the pure resume test.  An 11-1 Alabama team would be favored against anyone in the country, including whoever beat them, because they're easily the most talented team.  
Then let's cancel the season now, have Vegas tell us the 4 best teams, and go, if that's what decides things.
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TyphonInc

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2018, 08:46:41 AM »
Yes. M*ch*g*n controls their own destiny.
A 1 loss P5 Champ will get in over a 1 loss non champ. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2018, 09:04:56 AM »
Another way to look at this, this is an ordered list of who I think the committee would rank:
  • Undefeated Bama
  • Undefeated Ohio State
  • Undefeated Clemson/NCST
  • Undefeated Notre Dame
  • One loss SEC Champion Bama/LSU/UGA/UF/UK
  • One loss B1G Champion tOSU/M (note that I left Iowa out of this even though they could potentially be a 12-1 B1G Champion)
  • One loss ACC Champion Clemson (note I left NCST out of this even though they could potentially be a 12-1 ACC Champion)
  • One loss B12 Champion OU/TX (note I left WVU out of this even though they could potentially be a 12-1 B12 Champion)
  • One loss non-Champion Bama (either 11-1 with a loss to LSU or 12-1 with an SECCG loss)
  • One loss B12 Champion WVU
  • One loss B1G Champion Iowa
  • One loss ACC Champion NCST
  • One loss non-Champion Ohio State (either 11-1 with a loss to the M/MSU winner or 12-1 with a B1GCG loss)
  • One loss Notre Dame
  • One loss PAC Champion Ore/WSU/Colo
  • One loss non-Champion Oregon
  • One loss non-Champion NCST
  • One loss non-Champion Colorado

The above list includes all potential undefeated and one-loss P5 (and ND) teams and that is the order in which I think that they would be selected.  Note that:
  • #1 and #5 are mutually exclusive.  
  • #2 and #6 are mutually exclusive.  
  • #3 and #7 are mutually exclusive.  
Thus, #1 through #7 will produce an absolute maximum of four teams.  Consequently, Texas (currently ranked #7/8) and Oklahoma (currently ranked #9/10) are effectively the "next team in" at this point - see #8 above.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2018, 09:15:09 AM »
I know folks think the committee gives the SEC some kind of sainthood here, but IF somehow UGA was 12-1, it would likely be a fairly unimpressive 12-1, no good OOC wins at all, and only wins over Florida, UK, and Bama in conference of any consequence, and UK of course could fade.

I don't think they would be better than fourth, depending.  LSU on the other hand has one nice OOC win and would have significant in conference wins, so they would be higher.

A 12-1 Clemson would also not have a whole lot of track record, although the win over A&M on the road is pretty decent.  Ohio State would have (does have) TWO wins OOC over P5 teams even if one of those is not good.  That would be impressive along with a B1G trophy.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2018, 09:18:27 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 16, 2018, 06:07:36 PM
If they cared about that, they probably wouldn't have facilitated an intra-conference rematch last year. And Michigan's resume would be better than Texas's and Oklahoma's anyway (better wins and a "better" loss).
They did not engineer any rematch last year.  Obviously, UGA and Bama had to win the first round and the NC was the first time they had played.
The committee MIGHT consider that ND win over UM as a factor.  They might not.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2018, 09:43:35 AM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on October 17, 2018, 08:46:41 AM
Yes. M*ch*g*n controls their own destiny.
A 1 loss P5 Champ will get in over a 1 loss non champ.
I don't think I'd go that far. BUT I would say that a 1-loss Big Ten or SEC champ will get in before ANY 1-loss non-champ.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2018, 09:46:21 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 17, 2018, 09:18:27 AM
They did not engineer any rematch last year.  Obviously, UGA and Bama had to win the first round and the NC was the first time they had played.
You and I talked about and acknowledged  that yesterday.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2018, 10:26:18 AM »
I have not posted here about that until just then.

I agree that a 12-1 P5 champ gets selected over an 11-1 P5 nonchamp in nearly every case.  One of these years we will have a 12-1 team that lost in the CG and we'll see how that ranks.  Imagine 12-0 Bama loses to 10-3 Florida.  Florida is out almost certainly, but is Bama still in?

Depends on alternatives of course.

We also will see a 2 loss team make it in the mix if the 2 Ls are solid and there are 3-4-5 really good wins out there.

I don't know how this rematch potential will play out in any of this, no data.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2018, 10:35:49 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 17, 2018, 10:26:18 AM
I have not posted here about that until just then.
Ah, it was a mixed conversation with the same conclusion:

You @ 5:39pm
Me @ 6:07
Medina @ 6:19
Me @ 6:56
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Hawkinole

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #37 on: October 17, 2018, 10:50:57 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 17, 2018, 09:43:35 AM
I don't think I'd go that far. BUT I would say that a 1-loss Big Ten or SEC champ will get in before ANY 1-loss non-champ.
I agree with this. Right now, it is too speculative. It is difficult to go undefeated through a regular season and conference championship game. We are too far away from the CFP for me to speculate, now.
If ND is undefeated I think they will get in, but what about a 1-loss ND? We are too far away. If UCF goes undefeated can they get in? If Iowa wins out, wins the West, and somehow were to defeat Michigan or Ohio State, a 1-loss Iowa would seem to be a good bet. The fact Iowa defeated Iowa State, and Iowa State defeated W. Virginia adds to Iowa's resume, if Iowa State continues its winning ways.
Michigan and Ohio State probably control their destinies. For me it is just too early to think about these things. A 1-loss ND and an undefeated UCF, could enter the picture, if Iowa were the champ.
I sincerely doubt two teams from the SEC get in.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #38 on: October 17, 2018, 11:24:56 AM »
Quote from: Hawkinole on October 17, 2018, 10:50:57 AM
If ND is undefeated I think they will get in, but what about a 1-loss ND? 
1-loss Notre Dame, IMHO would need all kinds of help to make it.  Their win over Michigan is obviously holding up REALLY well as Michigan is now 6-1 and ranked #6 but as of this week's poll, Michigan is the only currently ranked team on Notre Dame's schedule.  They do have a win over Stanford which is currently first among "others receiving votes" and a scheduled game against USC which is second on that list.  
Pretty much every P5 Champion will have defeated a ranked and usually highly ranked team in their CG along with whatever ranked teams are on their regular season schedule.  IMHO, Notre Dame's SoS is not going to compare well to any potential P5 Champion.  That probably doesn't matter if 12-0 Notre Dame is being compared to 11-2 Michigan but what if 11-1 Notre Dame is being compared to 11-2 SEC Champion Florida?  
I think that Notre Dame's chances to get in with a loss are minimal.  Not only do I think they would be behind all of the undefeated and 1-loss P5 Champions, I also think that they might end up behind at least some 2-loss P5 Champions.  
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ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #39 on: October 17, 2018, 11:26:48 AM »
ND absolutely has to win out, absent it being between them and a 1 loss Michigan.  They would have no resume argument over any undefeated or 1 loss team, including Michigan.  They would just have to pray the committee values that head to head win over total resume.
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utee94

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #40 on: October 17, 2018, 11:31:41 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 17, 2018, 09:43:35 AM
I don't think I'd go that far. BUT I would say that a 1-loss Big Ten or SEC champ will get in before ANY 1-loss non-champ.
If it's Ohio State or Michigan, sure. Just as a 1-loss B12 champ gets in over ANY 1-loss non-champ-- as long as it's Texas or OU.
But if we're talking about a 1-loss champ Indiana or Purdue or Illinois or Rutgers or Iowa State or Kansas, getting in over a 1-loss non-champ Alabama, then I don't necessarily agree.
Now certainly those scenarios are unlikely, but these are the hypotheticals we're referencing here.
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ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #41 on: October 17, 2018, 11:36:32 AM »
One of those schools would have an even more impressive resume because they would have had to go through all the helmets, whereas obviously the helmets don't have to play themselves.  I would think a 1 loss Indiana with wins over UM, OSU, PSU, MSU, and maybe a Wisconsin or Iowa would absolutely be in.  Now if it's a 1 loss non champ Indiana vs. a 1 loss non champ Alabama...eh.
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