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Topic: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2018, 05:32:35 PM »
Yes they do.  Win out and they are in.  There is no scenario where they wouldn’t be
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2018, 05:39:39 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 16, 2018, 05:32:35 PM
Yes they do.  Win out and they are in.  There is no scenario where they wouldn’t be
Michigan?  Let's say ND is 12-0, and Clemson and Bama are 13-0.  That leaves one spot.  Texas could be 12-1 and so could Oklahoma.
The committee might argue UM had already faced ND.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2018, 06:07:36 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 16, 2018, 05:39:39 PM
Michigan?  Let's say ND is 12-0, and Clemson and Bama are 13-0.  That leaves one spot.  Texas could be 12-1 and so could Oklahoma.
The committee might argue UM had already faced ND.

If they cared about that, they probably wouldn't have facilitated an intra-conference rematch last year. And Michigan's resume would be better than Texas's and Oklahoma's anyway (better wins and a "better" loss).
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2018, 06:17:08 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 16, 2018, 06:07:36 PM
Michigan's resume would be better than Texas's and Oklahoma's anyway (better wins and a "better" loss).
I agree on this.  In theory there could be three P5 (and ND) undefeateds (Bama, ND, and Clemson/NCST) along with three 12-1 P5 Champions (Michigan, OU/TX/WVU, and ORE/WSU/Colo).  In that case I am pretty confident that Michigan would beat out the other two 1-loss P5 Champs however, Oklahoma looking just completely dominant could alter that.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2018, 06:19:21 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 16, 2018, 06:07:36 PM
If they cared about that, they probably wouldn't have facilitated an intra-conference rematch last year. 
This might be overly-semantic but while UGA/Bama was intra-conference it was not a rematch.  I do not know if that matters to the committee or not.   
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2018, 06:43:58 PM »
A 12-1 M has nothing to worry about.
A 12-0 ND has nothing to worry about.
And yet I still feel some of you are underestimating the love a 12-1 non-champ Bama would get. 



It would be a nice helmet-status litmus test, anyway.  
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2018, 06:56:07 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 16, 2018, 06:19:21 PM
This might be overly-semantic but while UGA/Bama was intra-conference it was not a rematch.  I do not know if that matters to the committee or not.  
It's not overly-semantic. It's just correct. I made a mistake.
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ohio1317

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2018, 09:14:29 PM »
Realistically I think there would be only a few circumstances to leave out a 12-1 Michigan, but I do think there would be one or two.  Basically the only teams who might be above them there are:

1.  Undefeated Clemson (Doubt 1-loss Clemson will be)
2.  Undefeated or 1-loss SEC Champ
3.  Notre Dame at 12-0 or maybe at 11-1 given the head to head victory, but probably would still take otherwise looking good down the stretch.
4.  12-1 or 11-1 Alabama who lost a tight game in the SEC Championship or to LSU (preventing them from going to the SEC Championship).
5.  Maybe (and I highly doubt it), a 12-1 Oklahoma would be above Michigan.  Would probably require big domination on their part going forward.

Really the only scenario I would fret much would be with 2 SEC teams (with Alabama not being the conference champ), Clemson, and Notre Dame in the running.  I don't think all 3 of those are likely, but a bit of potential.

Edit:  I probably do lean on Michigan getting in over Alabama in this case, but the Tide have been dominant this year and the committee has shown it only cares about conference championships to a degree (more as a tie breaker than anything else). 

I would also lean on a 12-1 Michigan in over a 11-1 Notre Dame, but if the teams are viewed as close by the committee they will use that head to head.  To me, so far, they have shown that becomes very relevant when (and only when) they put teams in the same tier.  I think Michigan dominating down the stretch would probably put them a tier above Notre Dame, but that is not a guarantee. 
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 09:20:10 PM by ohio1317 »
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ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2018, 10:10:27 PM »
Yeah the 13-0 Clemson, 12-0 Notre Dame, 12-1 LSU and 11-1 Alabama scenario is the only one that is even a remote possibility.

Even then, it's not enough.  Who are Alabama's wins there?
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2018, 10:16:07 PM »
One loss ND and one loss bama would be tough for a one loss Michigan to overcome

not saying it would be right, just saying
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ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2018, 10:35:47 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 16, 2018, 10:16:07 PM
One loss ND and one loss bama would be tough for a one loss Michigan to overcome

not saying it would be right, just saying
1 loss Notre Dame, with a win over Michigan, maybe.  1 loss Alabama, whose best would be...? Texas A&M?  2nd best? Mississippi State?  That would be a total sham.
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #25 on: October 16, 2018, 11:05:46 PM »
true, but you don't think it could happen?

not saying it will, but I think it could
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2018, 12:36:34 AM »
I have a bias against the 1-loss ND idea because I think they got off easy playing Michigan in week 1, have an underwhelming schedule, and have also looked underwhelming across those other games.
With that caveat, I just can't see an 11-1 ND getting in over Michigan, but accept that I'm not the one to ask and either way it would not be obvious, would be controversial, and the conversation: protracted.
Even then, that can ONLY come into play if Clemson stays undefeated, ND loses one, Alabama loses one, and the defeater of Alabama  wins out. That's not implausible, but we are chasing narrow situations not to exclude Michigan but to maaaaaaybe exclude Michigan. And even in this one, I think Michigan would *probably* (a special kind of maybe) wind up on top of both ND and Alabama. Again, caveat, maybe.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2018, 12:40:15 AM by Anonymous Coward »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2018, 01:20:52 AM »
Quote from: ELA on October 16, 2018, 10:35:47 PM
1 loss Notre Dame, with a win over Michigan, maybe.  1 loss Alabama, whose best would be...? Texas A&M?  2nd best? Mississippi State?  That would be a total sham.
This is the thing about Alabama - they're beyond the pure resume test.  An 11-1 Alabama team would be favored against anyone in the country, including whoever beat them, because they're easily the most talented team.  
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier
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