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Topic: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?

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utee94

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #42 on: October 17, 2018, 11:52:30 AM »
The resume' is not as important as the helmet.

Do you similarly think that Iowa State with, say, an OOC win over Iowa, and then conference wins over Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Oklahoma again in the B12 CCG, would get in over 1-loss non-champ Alabama?

I sure don't.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #43 on: October 17, 2018, 12:01:49 PM »
First, I agree with what @ELA said.  Any one-loss Champion would have an impressive resume and in some ways a non-helmet would get a resume boost because they would play more helmets.  What I am saying, and what I think ELA was saying is consider a 12-1 Ohio State where one of the wins was over an Indiana team that finished 8-4.  Nobody would say "look, Ohio State beat Indiana, they must be good" but if you reverse it and consider a 12-1 Indiana where one of the wins was over an Ohio State team that finished 8-4 then people would point to that win as evidence of Indian's strength.  

Second, I was confining my hypotheticals to things that are at least mathematically possible this year.  One loss Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa State, or Kansas are not possible this year because they already have three, three, three, six, three, and four losses respectively.  

Wild hypotheticals for THIS season are difficult enough to measure but wild hypotheticals in undetermined future years are impossible.  At least when we confine ourselves to things that could happen this year we have a given set of restrictions.  Ie, the only potential 1-loss or better P5 Champions this year are:
  • Bama
  • tOSU
  • Clemson
  • LSU
  • Michigan
  • Texas
  • Oklahoma
  • Florida
  • Oregon
  • WVU
  • Kentucky
  • NCST
  • Iowa
  • WSU
  • Colorado

That is it.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #44 on: October 17, 2018, 12:02:59 PM »
The resume' is not as important as the helmet.

Do you similarly think that Iowa State with, say, an OOC win over Iowa, and then conference wins over Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Oklahoma again in the B12 CCG, would get in over 1-loss non-champ Alabama?

I sure don't.  
I still absolutely disagree and I still think that absent evidence for this we shouldn't assume it.  In the four years of the CFP we have yet to see evidence of this.  

utee94

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #45 on: October 17, 2018, 12:04:21 PM »
You may certainly limit yourself to whatever you like.  I'm responding to AC's assertion that was phrased this way:

"BUT I would say that a 1-loss Big Ten or SEC champ will get in before ANY 1-loss non-champ."

And I do not agree.  I think it's pretty obvious this is NOT the case, in fact. 

utee94

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #46 on: October 17, 2018, 12:05:33 PM »
I still absolutely disagree and I still think that absent evidence for this we shouldn't assume it.  In the four years of the CFP we have yet to see evidence of this.  
Disagree all you like, you have no more nor less evidence than I do, because we've never seen a 1-loss P5 champ non-helmet in consideration against a 1-loss P5 non-champ helmet.   Your opinion is no more nor less valid than anyone else's, regardless of whether or not it is  passionately held.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #47 on: October 17, 2018, 12:13:52 PM »
Disagree all you like, you have no more nor less evidence than I do, because we've never seen a 1-loss P5 champ non-helmet in consideration against a 1-loss P5 non-champ helmet.   Your opinion is no more nor less valid than anyone else's, regardless of whether or not it is  passionately held.
The difference here is that you are the one asserting that the game is rigged and you are making that assertion without any evidence.  If evidence arises to support that claim we should discuss it then.  Saying it without any evidence at all just makes no sense to me.  

utee94

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #48 on: October 17, 2018, 12:16:04 PM »
There's plenty of evidence of helmet bias in the selection committee's weekly rankings since inception.

We may, or may not, have seen evidence of it in the final 4.  But we've also never seen Illinois going up against Alabama.

ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #49 on: October 17, 2018, 01:00:38 PM »
MSU vs. Ohio State in 2015?

Kris60

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #50 on: October 17, 2018, 01:04:03 PM »
MSU vs. Ohio State in 2015?
Nah. MSU had the head to head and conference title and the same record. That’s different than the scenario Utee is talking about.

ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #51 on: October 17, 2018, 01:13:58 PM »
Nah. MSU had the head to head and conference title and the same record. That’s different than the scenario Utee is talking about.
The head to head part is different.  But the same record/conference title vs. no conference title is exactly what we are talking about isn't it?  Where the two schools both have 1 loss but only the non-helmet school has a conference title.

Kris60

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #52 on: October 17, 2018, 01:17:27 PM »
The head to head part is different.  But the same record/conference title vs. no conference title is exactly what we are talking about isn't it?  Where the two schools both have 1 loss but only the non-helmet school has a conference title.
The head to head changes everything though.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #53 on: October 17, 2018, 02:55:33 PM »
The closest was maybe OSU edging out TCU and Baylor in 2014. 

Had Texas and Oklahoma tied for the Big XII Title instead of TCU and Baylor, does OSU still get in? 
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MrNubbz

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #54 on: October 17, 2018, 03:05:57 PM »
Good arguments keep'em up
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #55 on: October 17, 2018, 03:13:08 PM »
The closest was maybe OSU edging out TCU and Baylor in 2014.

Had Texas and Oklahoma tied for the Big XII Title instead of TCU and Baylor, does OSU still get in?
There are always a lot of moving parts but I think that this is the closest we have ever had to "evidence" of the pro-helmet conspiracy among committee voters.  Still, it falls far short of what I want to see before I believe in this conspiracy.  That is because there are reasonable non-helmet reasons for that decision:
  • Due to the B12's status at that time, neither Baylor nor TCU had a CG win to point to and additionally, neither was the "undisputed" (for lack of a better term) Champion.  This also meant that both of their records were 1/2 game worse than tOSU's (11-1 vs 12-1).  
  • Both of them played an FCS team OOC (Samford for TCU and Northwestern State for Baylor).  
  • Ohio State's four OOC games of Navy, VaTech, Kent, and Cincy was VASTLY tougher than than either Baylor's or TCU's OOC.  
  • Ohio State's dominating 59-0 statement win in the B1GCG was better than any win either Baylor or TCU achieved.  
  • Closely related to #1, #2, and #3, Ohio State had a clear edge in SoS.  

 

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