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Topic: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2018, 03:40:49 PM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on November 21, 2018, 01:42:59 PM
Multiple sites are now thinking that 11-1 ND would stay ahead of 12-1 OSU because of our piss poor offense and inconstant run game.
I think this is one of those things that is easy to speculate now but highly unlikely to actually occur.  In order for this discussion to even come into play the following three things have to happen:
  • Ohio State has to beat #4 Michigan on Saturday afternoon, then
  • Notre Dame has to lose to unranked USC on Saturday night, then
  • Ohio State has to beat #19 Northwestern next Saturday night (while ND is home watching)

I'm not disagreeing with the idea that Ohio State hasn't looked very good this year but if they win back-to-back games against ranked teams while Notre Dame is losing to an unranked team I think that would create a LOT of movement.  

Ultimately, if Notre Dame loses in SoCal Saturday night then I think they need to become the world's biggest Northwestern/West Virginia/Washington/Utah fans.  
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TyphonInc

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2018, 08:15:28 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 21, 2018, 03:36:18 PM

We can't really tell which of those two things was more important.  
 Bad Loss vs. Embarrassing Loss
We can if we expand the field of teams we look at past 4 vs. 5. The general feel I think most poster agree to is that a team with a bad loss doesn't get knocked that much. But, teams who have an embarrassing loss on their schedule haven't made the playoff.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #30 on: November 23, 2018, 09:11:35 AM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on November 21, 2018, 08:15:28 PM
Bad Loss vs. Embarrassing Loss
We can if we expand the field of teams we look at past 4 vs. 5. 
Eh, the problem with this is that everybody knows that the only meaningful distinction in any CFP ranking is the distinction between top-4 team and not top-4 team in the final rankings each year.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #31 on: November 23, 2018, 09:22:56 AM »
Making an NY6 bolw game is a meaningful distinction.

It's a least a nice parting gift.

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #32 on: November 23, 2018, 11:50:27 AM »
There are two really big games tonight:

Oklahoma/West Virginia:
If the Sooners win they keep the B12 in the CFP hunt.  The victorious Sooners would be 11-1 and headed to the B12CG with a strong likelihood that they would get an opportunity to avenge their only loss of the season by playing Texas again.  

If the Mountaineers win the B12's CFP hopes would be on life support.  The victorious Mountaineers would be 9-2 and headed to the B12CG to play either 9-3 Texas or 10-2 Oklahoma.  The only B12 team with a shot at the CFP would be the B12CG winner but that would be either:
  • 11-2 Oklahoma, or
  • 10-2 West Virignia, or
  • 10-3 Texas

Washington/Washington State:
If the Cougars win they keep the P12 in the CFP hunt.  The victorious Cougars would be 11-1 and headed to the P12CG to play Utah.  Utah will be either 9-3 or 8-4 heading into the P12CG.  

If the Huskies win the P12's CFP hopes are over.  The 9-3 Huskies would, at best, play the 9-3 Utes in the P12CG.  Washington State would finish the season 10-2 but with no CG, a ridiculously weak OOC, a bad overall SoS, and probably only one win over a ranked team they wouldn't have a serious chance.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #33 on: November 23, 2018, 11:57:10 AM »
In terms of national impact, the biggest game of the weekend is ND/USC on Saturday night.  The Irish are clearly in with a win and most likely out with a loss so that game impacts the Irish and all of the teams that could potentially end up 4th if the Irish lose.  

Georgia/GeorgiaTech has some national impact but it is conditional because the game probably is only really relevant IF Georgia beats Bama next weekend.  Even then I'm not sure how relevant it is because an 11-2 SEC Champion Georgia that just took out Bama is probably going to find a way into the CFP anyway.  

The Bama/Auburn and Clemson/USCe games are less nationally relevant because Bama and Clemson could probably afford rivalry losses as long as they win their respective CG's next weekend.  

Michigan/Ohio State is less nationally relevant because either way the winner will be 11-1 and heading to Indianapolis to play Northwestern while the loser will be 10-2 and not a Champion.  Michigan has a somewhat stronger resume but either way the winner is a CFP contender if they beat Northwestern while the loser is out and the winner has no shot without beating Northwestern.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #34 on: November 24, 2018, 12:45:22 AM »
So the Pac22 is out but the B12 is still in the race.
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #35 on: November 24, 2018, 08:20:00 AM »
so, there will be folks rooting for the Horns
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #36 on: November 24, 2018, 08:56:00 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 24, 2018, 08:20:00 AM
so, there will be folks rooting for the Horns
Yes, but first the Trojans. If this early USC lead holds up it opens up a spot such that the OU/UT and tOSU/ NU are less relevant to each other.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #37 on: November 25, 2018, 07:04:20 AM »
So, it gets fairly simple, though a lot of STUFF could happen.

Bama - UGA - winner is in, loser might be in depending if it's Bama
ND - IN
Clemson - I'll call them IN barring some weird meltdown with Pitt.  Clemson can score points and plays some defense.

Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama - IF all finish 12-1, no right answer I think here.

UCF - I can't get over the schedule.

Of course, we'd have MAYHEM if NW downs OSU and Texas does the same and UGA edges Bama.  I'd guess Bama would get the nod, rightly or wrongly.
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #38 on: November 25, 2018, 10:23:49 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 25, 2018, 07:04:20 AM
UCF - I can't get over the schedule.

Of course, we'd have MAYHEM if NW downs OSU and Texas does the same and UGA edges Bama.  I'd guess Bama would get the nod, rightly or wrongly.
I'd like to see chaos.  Rooting for Texas, Northwestern, Georgia, and even Pitt
Put UCF in w/o the star QB
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #39 on: November 25, 2018, 11:57:47 AM »
Pulling I guess for Bama, Pitt, Utah and Ohio St.

I can't pull for Tom Herman anymore, but don't particularly want the Sooners to win either. So put me down for a meteorite in the XII.

For the G5 Ccgs, gimme Application St, the Blazers, Memphis, Boise, and... oh I dunno... Buffalo?

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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #40 on: November 25, 2018, 05:34:59 PM »
I saw Bama started as "only" a 10 point favorite.  I thought it might be 14.
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TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #41 on: November 25, 2018, 05:57:47 PM »
I’m rooting for UGA, because I don’t think OSU is getting in unless OU loses, and while certainly not impossible ,but I think OU gets revenge. So I think it’d be the end of playoff as we know it when the SEC gets 2 in and 2 power 5 schools at 12-1 are left out
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