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I actually think that situation is cleaner than if Alabama beats Georgia.  In yours I think Alabama is pretty obviously in.  It would be them vs. a bunch of 2 loss non champs.
If Ohio State, Oklahoma and Georgia all lose, I think it gets crazier.  Does Michigan sneak back in?  Georgia might stay #4 if it's a close loss to Bama.

• I think that 10-2 Michigan would be ranked behind even an 11-2 non-Champion Georgia.  Georgia would have a 1/2 game better record and their losses (#1 Bama and #~10 LSU) would be AT LEAST comparable to Michigan's losses (#~3 ND and #~5 tOSU).  Each team's best win would be approximately equal.  Michigan had a blowout win over #12 PSU while UGA had a slightly lesser blowout win over #9 UF.  
• I really don't think that 10-2 Michigan would be ranked ahead of an 11-2 Ohio State that beat them H2H for at least three reasons:  First, Ohio State would have a 1/2 game better record.  Second, Ohio State's second loss would come in a CG that Michigan didn't have to play and it has seemed to me that the committee has not wanted to severely penalize teams for losing CG's.  Finally, even though Ohio State's losses would CLEARLY be worse than Michigan's, Ohio State would also have a much better win.  
• Michigan can't realistically pass Bama, Clemson, or Notre Dame because the worst any of those three could do is 12-1 and Michigan is stuck at 10-2.  I think that you can add Georgia (see #1 above), Ohio State (see #2 above), and possibly Oklahoma to the list of teams that Michigan can't realistically pass and just assume that Michigan's ceiling in the final CFP rankings is no better than #6.  

• 12-0 Bama will finish 13-0 or 12-1 and might already be a CFP lock.  I think the only thing that would keep them out would be if they just got destroyed by Georgia while OU and tOSU were destroying Texas and Northwestern and Clemson also won.  Even then I'm not sure.  
• 12-0 Clemson will finish 13-0 or 12-1.  Their major problem, should they lose, is that their SoS isn't all that good and their loss would be BAD.  Their loss would be bad enough that it would be comparable to Ohio State's loss to Purdue and Clemson would NOT be a Conference Champion.  
• 12-0 Notre Dame, season complete.  The Irish are absolute 100% locks, the only question is seeding.  
• 11-1 Georgia will finish 12-1 or 11-2.  At 12-1 they would CLEARLY be in.  At 11-2 they would need help, a lot of help.  It could happen but probably only if the loss was at least competitive and the Buckeyes and Sooners both lost.  
• 11-1 Oklahoma will finish 12-1 or 11-2.  At 11-2 they have no chance.  At 12-1 they should be ok, but it would help them a LOT to win BIG over Texas and for Ohio State to either lose or at least win ugly.  
• 11-1 Ohio State will finish 12-1 or 11-2.  The Buckeyes probably need either a Texas win or a MAJOR blowout of Northwestern coupled with Oklahoma beating Texas but looking bad doing it.  It would also help if Bama either beats Georgia or gets run out of the Georgia Dome.  
• 10-2 Michigan is done at 10-2.  It is unlikely that they could pass even one of the teams ranked ahead of them.  
• 11-0 UCF can finish 12-0 but they still will not have any quality wins and their SoS is something around 197.  
• 9-3 Florida is done at 9-3.  They'll pass UCF if Memphis wins.  
• 9-3 LSU is done at 9-3.  Like Florida, they'll pass UCF if Memphis wins.  
• 9-3 Washington will finish 10-3 or 9-4.  They might pass LSU, Florida, and UCF if they win but I think that is their ceiling, #8.  
• 9-3 Penn State is done at 9-3.  In theory they could pass Washington if the Huskies lose but in practice I don't think it matters because if Washington loses it means that #17 Utah wins and the Utes would probably trade places with the Huskies so PSU is probably stuck behind the winner either way.  Like Florida and LSU they'll pass UCF if Memphis wins.  
• 10-2 Washington State is done at 10-2.  See PSU but worse because they might not pass the Huskies even if Utah does win due to H2H.  
• 9-3 Texas will finish 10-3 or 9-4.  If they win they'll probably move to the front of the 3-loss line which would put them at #9 and my guess is that the committee would move Oklahoma behind them due to the 2xH2H so that gets them to #8.  Additionally, they might pass either UCF or tOSU or both if either or both of those teams lose and possibly Michigan as well so in theory they might finish #5 but I can't see anything higher than that.  

I was thinking that putting Michigan ahead of UCF seemed like a good fail safe.  Now if somehow Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma all lose, maybe lose ugly, the committee still has a buffer to keep UCF out.  But if they decide UCF now gets its shot, they can still jump Michigan with the argument that they are now conference champs, which is enough to slide them past.  If they had dropped UM below UCF, there is no way they could jump Michigan back with a UCF win.

That's why I'm also a little surprised about Oklahoma ahead of OSU.  Oklahoma plays a better opponent, you can put Ohio State ahead for now, and still reevaluate if both win this weekend.  I think by putting Oklahoma ahead, they've closed the discussion.  I don't think blowing out a 5 loss Northwestern team, even if Oklahoma wins close, does much for me.

I was thinking that putting Michigan ahead of UCF seemed like a good fail safe.  Now if somehow Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma all lose, maybe lose ugly, the committee still has a buffer to keep UCF out.  But if they decide UCF now gets its shot, they can still jump Michigan with the argument that they are now conference champs, which is enough to slide them past.  If they had dropped UM below UCF, there is no way they could jump Michigan back with a UCF win.

They probably won't win by being included.