But I still think it was strange that in 2016 that 11-1 OSU was picked over the Big Ten champion 11-2 PSU, a team that also had beat OSU H2H.
I hope you don't think I'm being homerish here because I a consistent advocate for "body of work" over H2H. Another issue that comes into play here is HFA which I consistently assert is a bigger factor than most people give it credit for.
Both of those come into play in the 2016 situation. First, Penn State's entire body of work was indisputably weaker than Ohio State's. The Nittany Lions had more losses (two vs one), worse losses (both were worse, Pitt because of the opponent and Michigan because of the score), and less quality wins. Second, the H2H was a close game on PSU's home field.
Finally, I hope that the CFP committee values SoS. I certainly think that they should. In 2016 that was another factor in Ohio State's favor. The Buckeyes owned a road win over the B12 Champion Oklahoma Sooners and had tougher B1G-W cross-overs than PSU.
I like the way the CFP committee has generally treated H2H because it is what I do when I do my Power Ranking votes. I use it as a tiebreaker of sorts for teams that are close overall. However, it is not the end-all-be-all. It can't be because then you inevitably run into the A<B<C<A conundrum. For example, in 2016, Penn State beat Ohio State, Ohio State beat Michigan, Michigan beat Penn State.
If Penn State had beaten the Panthers or been reasonably competitive with the Wolverines then they probably would have gotten in ahead of the Buckeyes. If they had done both then it wouldn't have even been a discussion. They didn't and consequently their entire body of work was not close enough to Ohio State's to bring the H2H "tiebreaker" into play.
The situation at hand might be similar to the 2016 tOSU/PSU situation. Assume:
- Bama beats Auburn, and
- GaTech beats Georgia, and
- Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG.
Georgia would be SEC Champions but have two losses:
- By 20 points at LSU, and
- To a mediocre (at best) GaTech team
Bama would not be a Champion but they would have a decent case based on manhandling their schedule. The weakness in Bama's argument is that their SoS wasn't very good. Their OOC turned out to be complete trash and their two SEC-E opponents (TN and Mizzou) were two of the worst three teams in the SEC-E. Their best two wins would be LSU and aTm. If aTm wins this weekend then Bama would have two wins over ranked teams but those teams would be ranked ~12-17. If LSU wins then Bama would likely finish the season with only one win over a ranked team. To their credit, their loss to Georgia would be a really "good" loss.