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Topic: Playoff picture heading into CCG's

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medinabuckeye1

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Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« on: November 27, 2017, 10:14:46 AM »
IMHO most of it is pretty simple:
  • The ACCCG winner (either 11-1 Miami or 12-1 Clemson) is in.  
  • The SECCG winner (either 12-1 UGA or 11-2 Auburn) is in.  
  • Oklahoma is in if they beat TCU in the B12CG to finish 11-1.  
  • Wisconsin is in if they beat tOSU in the B1GCG to finish 13-0.  

The ACC and SEC Championship games are essentially play-in games but they are largely irrelevant to other teams because, IMHO, the winners are in and the losers are out.  

If either Oklahoma or Wisconsin lose, that will open up a spot or two.  IMHO, Bama is the next team in so if either tOSU or TCU win, the Tide are in the playoffs.  

The only real question is what happens if both tOSU and TCU win this weekend?  At that point, the contenders for the last playoff spot would be:
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State
  • 11-2 B12 Champion TCU
  • 11-2 P12 Champion USC (assuming they beat Stanford in the P12CG).  
  • 12-1 non-Champion Wisconsin
IMHO, the above is the order in which those teams would be ranked behind the top-3 but it might depend on the relative strength of tOSU's, TCU's, and USC's CCG wins.  Ie, if one of them pulls a 2014 Ohio State and wins their CCG 59-0 that would potentially vault them ahead of the others.  
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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2017, 10:22:39 AM »
I would not be so quick to assume that Bama makes the playoff with a loss by Oklahoma or Wisconsin. They lost to the only decent team they played this year. If TCU or Ohio State win, either of those wins would be bigger than any win by Bama this year. Also, they would have a conference championship to hang their hats on, where Bama would not.

Now you could point to last year where a non-conf champ Ohio State made it over a 2-loss B1G champ Penn State. But remember, Ohio State had 3 wins over top 10 teams last year that set them apart. Bama does not have that resume.

I believe that the winners of the Conf Championship games in the B1G and the Big 12, will most likely get the nod over Bama. I am most likely wrong, but I think the committee will take the lack of a quality Bama win into consideration. If they don't, the playoff committee is a farce. 

Personally, I don't want to see Ohio State in the playoff. I don't feel they belong and would rather see a good bowl game vs a quality opponent. However, I also want them to win the B1G this year. And if they do, I hope the committee does NOT select them to a playoff game. 
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TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2017, 10:35:50 AM »
I agree, I want to see the Bucks win (hell, I'm going to the game!)

but I also agree I don't think this team is a legit top 4 team, too many holes. Inconsistent LB, OL, QB, coaching, special teams to name a few. one or two issues maybe you can overcome, but ohio state's got at least the above 4 problems.

but what teams are top 4? OU's offense is fantastic, their defense and special teams are atrocious.

Clemson I think has the best defense in America, but their too have had an up and down offense, QB play has been a little sporadic, and they are really missing their placekicker that got hurt.

Auburn, probably no hotter team in America, but their BIG wins have been at home. that defensive front 7 is pretty damn good though

Wisconsin. Overall a fairly consistent team, QB play has been poor, way too many picks. haven't really been in serious danger of losing to anyone, but let inferior teams like Purdue, Illinois hang around way too long. Not an explosive offense, if they get behind can they not panic, stick with running attack and make a comeback?

Georgia, not counting last week, not a great passing attack, same for Alabama.

So I don't personally see 1 team that I think is light years ahead of anyone, if you made me pick a winner I'd go Clemson.

But let's not fool ourselves, the talking heads will say "we think Alabama is head and shoulders above" OSU, TCU, USC etc and that's why the resume doesn't matter, we don't need to compare because the "tape" says Bama is way better
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rolltidefan

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2017, 11:20:06 AM »
2 thing need to say first to be clear:

1 - not sure bama is good enough to win cfp. between injuries on line and front 7 on d we are struggling, and our gameplanning has been suspect last few weeks.

2 - not sure bama deserves it anyway. leaning towards no.

having said that, i think the cfp committee will have bama 6th, and if either wisk or ou slip up, then bama will sneak in.

if osu beats sconnie, then there will be a healthy debate and i can see it going either way. both helmets. osu has more losses, but is a p5 champ, osu has better wins, but worse losses (both score and teams). no idea really how this plays out though.

is ou loses, bama is in fairly comfortably imo. don't think tcu has the clout to overtake bama.
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Entropy

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2017, 11:26:20 AM »
imo.. if OSU wins, and I think they will, bama is in the playoff..    I think it will be OU, Clemson, SEC Champ, Bama..  (not in order)
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Entropy

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2017, 11:27:26 AM »
Iowa beating OSU will be the BIG game that people talk about for years... as in, how did it happen.
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rolltidefan

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2017, 11:37:00 AM »
Quote from: Entropy on November 27, 2017, 11:27:26 AM
Iowa beating OSU will be the BIG game that people talk about for years... as in, how did it happen.
losing games you shouldn't lose happens all the time to every team. what sets that loss apart is how bad they got beat. it wasn't just a bad game and couldn't overcome mistakes, it was a brutal beat down with a bad scoreline to boot.
wisky will probably just win anyway and we won't get to find out.
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Entropy

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2017, 11:43:01 AM »
rolltide... agree.  OSU looked like the inferior team.  Hence the "how did that happen"...  It wasn't like OSU fumbled 5 times in the redzone and lost 10-7.   Iowa never put on a show like that all season, well,  until they faced UNL's D
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TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2017, 12:02:50 PM »
I agree, I think the Iowa loss (due to score) is way too much to overcome. unless they move OSU to #6 Tuesday night (which they won't), the Bucks are toast. Play for a Big 10 title and maybe an Orange bowl or Fiesta Bowl.. (unfortunately my 2 favorites the Rose and Sugar are out due to playoffs)

I'd really like to see a 2 loss team get in over a 1 loss due to the 1 loss having a weaker resume, and if Ohio State had lost by a touchdown instead of a hundy to Iowa then I think it might of happened. Auburn will get in with 2, but the SEC champ always gets in, even in a down year. and make no question, the SEC was down this year.

it might not matter though, Ohio State might not score 21 on Wisconsin this weekend.
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TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2017, 12:07:56 PM »
not sure bama is good enough to win cfp.

I would say it depends, on who they draw. I think they could beat Wisconsin or Georgia, those would be more slug it out type games, not an air raid which I think Bama could struggle with. Bama is good at smashmouth this year, but there's not enough of a passing game to get into a shootout.

If they drew Auburn my initial reaction would be no after last week, but that's shortsighted, in a rivalry rematch, I'd probably take Saban.

OU would be interesting, because I think OU can be had by a team that can slow down their offensive weapons (no ones really been able to) but maybe more importantly it's gotta be a team that could really pound the ball and control the clock. Kind of like how OSU beat Oregon a few years back. But I would lean in favor of OU vs Bama.

I'd also take Clemson vs Bama. Equally stout defense, but in my opinion a better offense.
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Entropy

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2017, 12:16:44 PM »
Matchups in the first round will be key...  sometimes, team A can handle team B better the C due to talent/scheme/etc... yet team C is better than B.   This year, I think, matchups will be more important than previous years.

==========

edited
« Last Edit: November 27, 2017, 12:43:14 PM by Entropy »
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2017, 12:28:00 PM »
Quote from: Entropy on November 27, 2017, 12:16:44 PM
Matchups in the first round will be key...  sometimes, team A can handle team B better the C due to talent/scheme/etc... yet team B is better than C.   This year, I think, matchups will be more important than previous years.
I'll go a step further and say that I believe that any of the plausible contenders could either win it all or get blown out in the semi-final.
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rolltidefan

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2017, 12:33:52 PM »
i can agree with that. there's probably 8-10 teams and any of them can beat the others.
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ELA

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2017, 02:48:20 PM »
Can't find a single issue with the OP
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