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Topic: B1G Divisional Races/SoS
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medinabuckeye1 · « **on:** August 17, 2021, 11:35:34 AM »

For the time being I'll consider those teams that are ranked and/or receiving votes to be the contenders. Obviously as the season progresses that is likely to change.

B1G-E:
Ohio State #4:

Visits #17 Indiana
Hosts #19 Penn State
Visits ORV Michigan
Plays MN (A), UNL (A), and PU (H) from the B1G-W

Indiana #17:

Hosts #4 Ohio State
Visits #19 PSU
Visits ORV Michigan
Plays MN (H), IA (A), and PU (A) from the B1G-W

Penn State #19:

Visits #4 Ohio State
Hosts #17 Indiana
Hosts ORV Michigan
Plays UW (A), IA (A), and IL (H) from the B1G-W

Michigan ORV:

Hosts #4 Ohio State
Hosts #17 Indiana
Visits #19 Penn State
Plays UW (A), NU (H), and UNL (A) from the B1G-W

I don't see any humongous advantages/disadvantages here. The Buckeyes appear to have the lightest B1G-W schedule while the Nits and Wolverines have the advantage of hosting two of their three games against other ranked/ORV divisional opponents. Indiana probably has the worst schedule. They do host the Buckeyes but if they lose that then their next three toughest games (PSU, IA, M) are all on the road. Basically I could see the Hoosiers being a REALLY good team and going 5-4 anyway.

B1G-W:
Wisconsin #12:

Hosts #18 Iowa
Hosts ORV Northwestern
Plays PSU (H), M (H), and RU (A) from the B1G-E

Iowa #18:

Visits #12 Wisconsin
Visits ORV Northwestern
Plays PSU (H), IU (H), and UMD (A) from the B1G-E

Northwestern ORV:

Visits #12 Wisconsin
Hosts #18 Iowa
Plays M (A), MSU (H), and RU (H) from the B1G-E

Wisconsin appears to have the best intra-divisional schedule with both Iowa and Northwestern at home while Northwestern appears to have the easiest inter-divisional schedule. Iowa's schedule certainly looks challenging as they visit both of the ranked/ORV divisional opponents and they play two of the three ranked inter-divisional opponents.

Abba · « **Reply #1 on:** August 17, 2021, 04:48:49 PM »

Purdue is the last West team that I want to see on the schedule. It may not equate in terms of SoS, but not excited about that game.

FearlessF · « **Reply #2 on:** August 17, 2021, 04:52:53 PM »

FearlessF · « **Reply #3 on:** August 17, 2021, 10:06:12 PM »

Quote from: Abba on August 17, 2021, 04:48:49 PM

Purdue is the last West team that I want to see on the schedule. It may not equate in terms of SoS, but not excited about that game.

On Tuesday afternoon, former Purdue quarterback Jim Everett posted a hype gif between Purdue and Oregon State and referred to the Beavers as “The Real OSU” while tweeting it out:

https://saturdaytradition.com/purdue-football/former-purdue-qb-trolls-ohio-state-while-hyping-up-boilermakers-matchup-vs-oregon-state/?fbclid=IwAR0UHH97OBsge8Hdgn4-dex9qU9uABHsgmMwjexqytPAhe718ZPrtz9rMAc

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 18, 2021, 12:12:54 PM »

Based on the votes so far in the preseason B1G Power Rankings thread, here is my schedule/performance chart:

Things that jump out at me:

Wisconsin's schedule looks EXTREMELY favorable in spite of the fact that they have to play both #3 PSU and #6 M from the B1G-E. According to our votes so far they get their four toughest opponents (PSU, IA, M, NU) at home so their toughest road game is against #8 Minnesota. For comparison, here is each team's toughest road game:

Ohio State, #5 IU
Penn State, #1 tOSU
Wisconsin, #8 MN
Indiana, #2 PSU
Iowa, #3 UW
Michigan, #2 PSU
Northwestern, #3 UW
Minnesota, #4 IU
Maryland, #1 tOSU
Nebraska, #3 UW
Purdue, #1 tOSU
Rutgers, #2 PSU
Michigan State, #1 tOSU
Illinois, #2 PSU

Also, it is a great year to be a season ticket holder in Madison. They host Penn State, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska in conference and for a short drive down to Chicago you can also see them play Notre Dame.

Penn State's schedule is rough, really rough. They play all five of the other top-6 teams in the league with three of those five games on the road. Note also that there is a fairly large drop from #6 to #7 so this is a fair division rather than just random. For comparison, here are the number of games and number of road games that each B1G team has against the top-6:

Ohio State, 3 games, 2 away
Penn State, 5 games, 3 away
Wisconsin, 4 games, 0 away
Indiana, 4 games, 3 away
Iowa, 3 games, 1 away
Michigan, 4 games, 2 away
Northwestern, 3 games, 2 away
Minnesota, 4 games, 2 away
Maryland, 5 games, 1 away
Nebraska, 4 games, 1 away
Purdue, 4 games, 2 away
Rutgers, 5 games, 3 away
Michigan State, 4 games, 2 away
Illinois, 3 games, 1 away

Only Maryland and Rutgers play as many top-6 opponents as Penn State and only Rutgers and Indiana play as many road games against top-6 opponents. This could be a difficult year for the Nittany Lions simply because The Horseshoe, Camp Randall, and Kinnick Stadium are TOUGH places to play even when you are the better team.

Contiguous games: These are games between teams adjacent to each other in the rankings, in theory these should be the most competitive games of the year:

9/4: #2 PSU at #3 UW
9/4: #4 IU at #5 Iowa
10/9: #13 MSU at #12 RU
10/23: #7 NU at #6 M
10/23: #9 UMD at #8 MN
10/30: #2 PSU at #1 tOSU
10/30: #8 MN at #7 NU
10/30: #11 PU at #10 UNL

Those first two (PSU@UW and IU@IA on 9/4) along with tOSU@MN that same weekend could really set the tone as far as the relative strength of the two divisions. In theory the three B1G-E teams are better but the three B1G-W team are the hosts so it could be interesting. A sweep by either division would be a pretty strong indicator.

After that we have one in mid-October then a big clump right before Halloween.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #5 on:** August 18, 2021, 12:17:11 PM »

FWIW:
Based on the combination of Wisconsin's favorable schedule and Penn State's unfavorable schedule if you offered me a straight up choice between betting a tOSU/UW B1GCG or any other matchup, I'd pick tOSU/UW if I had to bet. That is already our most common B1GCG matchup with three occurrences ahead of tOSU/NU with two and five other matchups that have each been played only once:

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #6 on:** August 19, 2021, 10:54:16 AM »

Diving deeper into this, Maryland jumps out at me as having a weird schedule. Here are their games by tentative B1G Power Ranking:

#1 tOSU, A 10/9
#2 PSU, H 11/6
#4 IU, H 10/30
#5 Iowa, H 10/1
#6 M, H 11/20
#8 MN, A 10/23
#12 RU, A 11/27
#13 MSU, A 11/13
#14 IL, A 9/17

Based on the rankings so far, Maryland is ranked anywhere from #7 to #12. I think this schedule creates a situation where if they really are #7 they could do VERY well but if they really are #12 they could do VERY poorly, allow me to explain:

If Maryland is around the 7th best team in the league then they'll likely do something like this:

Lose the road game at #1 tOSU.
Go maybe 2-2 in the home games against #2, #4, #5, and #6.
Go maybe 3-1 in the road games against #8, #12, #13, and #14.

That adds up to 5-4, pretty darn good.

If Maryland is around the #12 team in the league then they'll likely do something like this:

Lose the road game at #1 tOSU
Lose all four home games against obviously superior opponents (PSU, IU, IA, M)
Go maybe 1-3 against relative equals on the road (MN, RU, MSU, IL)

That adds up to 1-8.

Here is the thing, the gap between #7 and #12 isn't honestly all that humongous but it gets magnified for Maryland because their schedule is pretty favorable for a mid-pack team but highly unfavorable for a bottom-feeder.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #7 on:** August 19, 2021, 11:26:08 AM »

I already covered the teams ranked or receiving votes in the AP Poll (tOSU, PSU, UW, IU, IA, M) and I just did Maryland so now I'll talk about schedule for the other seven teams:

Northwestern:
As I see it, the biggest obstacle for the defending B1G-W Champions is that they have to go to Madison. If they lose in Camp Randall then they'll probably need to be perfect (or REALLY close to it) the rest of the way. They get Iowa at home which could help but they have to visit Ann Arbor. From the appearance of things for them offensively right now I just have trouble seeing them winning in either Madison or Ann Arbor and I don't think they'll be perfect at home either (IA, MN, PU, RU, MSU).

Minnesota:
In 2019 they started out unranked and didn't make it into the poll until October 13 when they were 6-0.  Their season peaked with a win over Penn State on November 9 that moved them to 9-0 and #7 in that week's AP Poll.

In 2020 they started out #19 then were unranked while non-playing teams were ineligible, came back in the 20's as the B1G geared up, then promptly got drilled by Michigan, fell out of the rankings, lost the next week, and were never seen again.

The big question for the Gophers is whether this season will build on 2019 or be more of 2020. Their two toughest games (#1 tOSU and #3 UW) are at home and IF they are a contender that should be a good thing. However, if they aren't then they'll likely lose those games in spite of HFA and then their next three (#4 IU, #5 IA, #7 NU) are all on the road.

Nebraska:
I think that the Cornhuskers' schedule sets up nicely for them to make a big jump. Here it is by tentative Power Ranking:

#1 tOSU, H 11/6
#3 UW, A 11/20
#5 IA, H 11/26
#6 M, H 10/9
#7 NU, H 10/2
#8 MN, A 10/16
#11 PU, H 10/30
#13 MSU, A 9/25
#14 IL, A 8/28

I really think that this is a favorable schedule for them. HFA in the games against IA, M, and NU makes all three winnable. If they catch a few breaks I could see this team going 6-3 or even 7-2.

Purdue:
The Boilermakers are a team where I wouldn't be totally shocked if they contend for the B1G-W title but I also wouldn't be totally shocked if they end up 2-7. I can't really even guess how favorable/unfavorable this schedule is because I just have no idea how good (or bad) they'll be.

Rutgers:
I don't think this schedule is favorable for a big jump by the Scarlet Knights. They have to play the top four teams in the league and while two of those (tOSU, UW) are home games I don't think it will matter.  Their next two toughest opponents (#6 M and #7 NU) are on the road then they get #9 UMD and #13 MSU at home and #14 IL on the road. I think that 3-6 might be a ceiling.

Michigan State:
This is a rough schedule for a rebuilding team. Their two easiest opponents are on the road so I just don't see any probable wins. I'm not saying that I predict them to go 0-9, just that they'll likely need an upset to avoid that.

Illinois:
The good news is that they get #12 RU at home but the bad news is that they miss #13 MSU and get #11 PU on the road. I'm not sure that wins against teams above that are very likely regardless of where the games are played.

FearlessF · « **Reply #8 on:** August 19, 2021, 11:42:36 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 19, 2021, 11:26:08 AM

Nebraska:
I think that the Cornhuskers' schedule sets up nicely for them to make a big jump. Here it is by tentative Power Ranking:

#1 tOSU, H 11/6
#3 UW, A 11/20
#5 IA, H 11/26
#6 M, H 10/9
#7 NU, H 10/2
#8 MN, A 10/16
#11 PU, H 10/30
#13 MSU, A 9/25
#14 IL, A 8/28

I really think that this is a favorable schedule for them. HFA in the games against IA, M, and NU makes all three winnable. If they catch a few breaks I could see this team going 6-3 or even 7-2.

I agree and am hoping for 6-3

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #9 on:** August 19, 2021, 12:13:38 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 19, 2021, 11:26:08 AM

Purdue:
The Boilermakers are a team where I wouldn't be totally shocked if they contend for the B1G-W title but I also wouldn't be totally shocked if they end up 2-7. I can't really even guess how favorable/unfavorable this schedule is because I just have no idea how good (or bad) they'll be.

Yet another weird season. The last two seasons (4-8 and 2-4) have had horrible records, but for the most part the losses were all close. Purdue has fired two defensive coordinators in two years. Talent should be on the upswing in general, but against a difficult schedule, will the results show it? Purdue still hasn't named a starting QB.

With all that, I'm going to say that the season will come down to the same thing I usually say: the offensive line.

Darrell Hazell left the cupboard bare, but PARTICULARLY bare on the OL. His QBs spent their time running for their lives in general, and his recruiting was trash. Brohm has been steadily improving recruiting on the OL, but with the caveat that OL recruits take 2-3 years to become productive. Because he's been steadily improving, it has been four straight years of the guys with the most time in the weight room having the least talent, and the guys coming in behind them with more talent not having enough time in the weight room to unseat the less talented guys who are older.

I was expecting this year to be the year it finally comes together on the OL... But with injuries, it appears that we're going to have a relatively thin unit there. As long as they stay healthy, the OL is likely to be the best it has been in the Brohm era. But a few injuries and it's gonna be ugly...

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Topic: B1G Divisional Races/SoS

medinabuckeye1

B1G Divisional Races/SoS

Abba

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