not necessarily what i'd pick, but i think it'd end up as oregon, texas, bama, and mich. maybe in that order, but probably:
1 - texas
2 - oregon
3 - bama
4 - mich
texas, oregon, and bama are just waiting their turns to come up after all the attrition.
texas gets top spot for 2 reason, and they're both bama. they beat bama, which is easily the best win anyone of these 4 have, and they've already played bama and putting them 2 would make for an immediate rematch in semis. they haven't done rematches in semis yet, though they've always been recent games, as well as same conf opp, so this might not hold. but that's what i'm going with.
oregon and bama just fall into 2-3 ncely, being p5 champs with solid sos/sor.
mich is the iffy pick, but i went with them for 2 reasons. 1, their loss comes earlier than everyone elses, and 2, they have a major win later on to leapfrog back up. uga, osu, and fsu don't have that luxury.
unfortunate for louisville and moreso iowa, they're just too far behind to make up the gap.
this is all not taking into account whatever potential penalty mich might find themselves in. should they be disqualified somehow, then i think it'd be a toss up for louisville and uga, depending on how each ccg went. i tend to lean louisville, though. having a ccg win vs another cfp contender is no small feat, and uga having failed that test in this scenario puts them just outside of the cfp.
what would i pick? probably the 3 relatively easy ones (texas, oregon, bama) and louisville, for reasons stated just above.