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Topic: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team

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Cincydawg

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2022, 09:38:19 AM »
If ND and Oregon lose as expected, they are virtually out (not technically of course).  ND also hosts Clemson, that could be an elimination game for either.

If Utah loses at Florida, they could be out as well, especially if Florida goes say 7-5ish.  Nebraska could beat OU.  Ha.

I'm not counting important conference games.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2022, 09:56:35 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 31, 2022, 09:38:19 AM
If ND and Oregon lose as expected, they are virtually out (not technically of course).  ND also hosts Clemson, that could be an elimination game for either.
I think that Notre Dame could potentially play their way in even with a loss to Ohio State.

Consider @ELA 's simulation:
Ohio State finished 13-0 and #1 and the #4 spot ended up being between:
  • An undefeated G5 Champion with a ridiculously weak schedule, or
  • A one-loss Michigan team that lost only to #1 on the road but also didn't win their league or go to their CG and their best win was over 9-4 #17 (IIRC) Iowa, or
  • One of three two-loss P5 Champions (Clemson, Oregon, and Oklahoma).
At 11-1 with a loss in Columbus Notre Dame would have the same loss as Michigan's but two advantages over the Wolverines:
  • Notre Dame would likely have a better win (ACC Champion Clemson), and
  • For Notre Dame the argument could be made that they have improved over the course of the season and are better now because their loss in Columbus was three months prior to Michigan's loss in Columbus.
In that scenario I think that Notre Dame would be ahead of Michigan (unless Michigan's loss to tOSU was substantially closer than Notre Dame's but even that might not be enough).
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Cincydawg

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2022, 11:39:40 AM »
Agree, ND could be in at 11-1, but it would be fairly unlikely I think.

An 11-2 Oklahoma or Utah might nip them.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2022, 01:46:40 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on August 31, 2022, 11:39:40 AM
Agree, ND could be in at 11-1, but it would be fairly unlikely I think.

An 11-2 Oklahoma or Utah might nip them.
I agree on all counts. I was just differing with the idea that a loss for ND would virtually eliminate them. 

If I were a ND fan and my team lost on Saturday, I'd simply hope that the loss was a reflection not of my own team's weakness but of their opponent's strength and figure that while the margin for error was gone, my team still had at least a 50/50 shot provided that they win out. 

In the past when the committee has faced a choice between a two-loss P5 Champion and a one-loss non-Champion they've gone with the team with fewer losses every time so I don't *THINK* they'd take a hypothetical 11-2 Champion (in the simulation either Clemson, Oklahoma, or Oregon) over an 11-1 Notre Dame but they aren't bound by precedent so who knows.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2022, 02:32:32 PM »
It could get interesting, indeed, even aside from the G5 undefeated team.  Often someone comes out of the back of the pack, like Michigan last year, or UCLA this year, maybe.  The ELA simulation showing four teams from only two conferences would be novel, and could prompt more discussions.

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FearlessF

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2022, 07:45:26 PM »
Utah will only nip someone if undefeated
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2022, 08:40:43 PM »
The Utes have never had this much preseason hype before. It's normally uncommon for them to get any mention at all in any type of National discussion. 
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FearlessF

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2022, 09:04:04 PM »
and for good reason
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Cincydawg

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Re: Pick your "wildcard" playoff team
« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2022, 08:46:06 AM »
The Utes might be pretty good, of course, but they are ranked pretty high.  If they get by Florida, and if Florida is decent, they could get to 12-1 or so.
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