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Topic: Phil Steele's Top 25

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #126 on: July 20, 2023, 04:57:52 PM »
I think all of us here agree that there are not 12 NC worthy teams any given season

“Deserves got nothing to do with it.”


https://youtu.be/10XXtoCjk5c
Yup.
12 = $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #127 on: July 20, 2023, 05:10:20 PM »
I think the case of the BCS forcing the nerds to eliminate MOV was a classic example of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. 

As I saw it, the BCS leaders concerns with including MOV were mostly:

  • It would give NC Contending coaches a motivation to run up scores on hapless opponents. 
  • It would permit teams with relatively weak SoS to overcome that by putting up Playstation #'s.
  • It can be misleading. 
My proposal was to include MOV but with a cap and also with some consideration of how close the game was. 

Specifically, I would have taken the sum of the point differential at halftime, the point differential at the end of the third quarter, and the final MOV with the following limits:
  • Any OT game is scored as a 1 point win.
  • The differential is capped at 21 at each point so the maximum is 63.
  • If the winning team has a negative total, the totals are adjusted to +1 for the winner and -1 for the loser. 


Cincydawg

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #128 on: July 20, 2023, 05:33:30 PM »
We formed a computer poll here years back and took the square root of MOV.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #129 on: July 20, 2023, 07:07:51 PM »
I think the case of the BCS forcing the nerds to eliminate MOV was a classic example of throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

As I saw it, the BCS leaders concerns with including MOV were mostly:

  • It would give NC Contending coaches a motivation to run up scores on hapless opponents.
  • It would permit teams with relatively weak SoS to overcome that by putting up Playstation #'s.
  • It can be misleading.
My proposal was to include MOV but with a cap and also with some consideration of how close the game was.

Specifically, I would have taken the sum of the point differential at halftime, the point differential at the end of the third quarter, and the final MOV with the following limits:
  • Any OT game is scored as a 1 point win.
  • The differential is capped at 21 at each point so the maximum is 63.
  • If the winning team has a negative total, the totals are adjusted to +1 for the winner and -1 for the loser.


Anything requiring any amount of nuance just wasn't an option then or now. 

Yet at the same time, they wound up constructing a Frankenstein monster of computers, polls, simple SOS, bonus wins, etc.

Ugh.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #130 on: July 20, 2023, 07:17:00 PM »
I blame Michigan for the BCS
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #131 on: July 21, 2023, 09:53:16 AM »
Anything requiring any amount of nuance just wasn't an option then or now.
I think the nuance would have been ok because most people don't understand the computer rankings anyway so changing from one formula they don't understand to another formula they don't understand wouldn't be a big deal.

I kinda like the square root idea posited above by @Cincydawg but I think that might be too nuanced. With a cap of 21 you could just say "It is capped at 21 to disincentivise piling points on hapless opponents." The square root thing more-or-less accomplishes the same thing but it is too complicated for a lot of people.

I don't know if the computers already do this but I think it is very important to look not just at final score but at what the committee has called "game control".

The examples I always use are two Ohio State games that I attended:
In the mid-90's the Buckeyes had a game against Iowa in which Ohio State just obliterated the Hawkeyes. At one point Ohio State led 56-0 and the game was never in doubt. However, Ohio State's backups, third stringers, waterboys, cheerleaders, and mascots got outscored 35-0 such that the final score was "only" a three-TD, 56-35 win.

About a decade later the Buckeyes beat Penn State in a tough and very competitive defensive slugfest. In the first ~55 minutes of the game the only difference was that Ohio State had done better in goal line situations such that the Buckeyes had a 14-6 lead on two scores for each team. With time running out Paterno was compelled to let his QB sling it around and Ohio State promptly scored 14 points on back-to-back pick-6's for an impressive looking final score of 28-6.

I use those two examples to illustrate the point that the final score can be misleading. In the tOSU/Iowa game the Buckeyes could have won by 100 if they had wanted to and the 21 point MOV severely understates Ohio State's level of dominance. In the tOSU/PSU game it was a hard fought game and the 22 point MOV severely overstates Ohio State's level of dominance.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #132 on: July 21, 2023, 10:14:53 AM »
I think the nuance would have been ok because most people don't understand the computer rankings anyway so changing from one formula they don't understand to another formula they don't understand wouldn't be a big deal.
The problem with the computer rankings had nothing to do with the model and whether it needs to be "tweaked".

The problem with the computer rankings was that it was an objective model, and every time it differed from the subjective human "eye test", we assumed that meant the computers must be wrong. 

If the computers always basically agreed with the flawed and subjective gray matter of fleshy "experts", then we would accept them. When they didn't, we blamed the computers, not the "experts". 

FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #133 on: July 21, 2023, 10:20:27 AM »
tweaking the formula each season to try to fix the result from the previous season was silly

each season is different

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #134 on: July 21, 2023, 10:39:58 AM »
tweaking the formula each season to try to fix the result from the previous season was silly

each season is different
Yeah, but it all stems from the same idea: "The computers disagreed with our polls, so the computers are wrong. We have to fix the model to make it right."

In some cases, that's true. I think it's CD who always says "all models are wrong; some of them are useful". I think this goes beyond that concept. It was the idea that the models weren't wrong because of flawed ideas, it was that they were wrong because they disagreed with human polls. And they needed to be "tweaked" to come in line.

Which made them ultimately superfluous. We would only accept them if they agreed with us, and if they agreed with us, we had no need for them. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #135 on: July 21, 2023, 10:42:18 AM »
That is what I think "we" learned when we did our own computer poll back when.  If it generated something odd, we "fixed" it, to the point it basically aligned with the human polls, more or less.  

This is a problem with climate modeling as well, they all have to align with past records (hoping they are accurate).  If they don't, they get adjusted.


FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #136 on: July 21, 2023, 11:14:31 AM »
wasn't there other stupid tweaks that didn't include the computers?

I can't remember the exact deal, but wasn't there a clause regarding being ranked in the top 4 or something, maybe the "Iowa Rule"?

While the determining of Nos. 1 and 2 was easy, there was some controversy over the at-large selections. USC became the first school to automatically qualify under the "Kansas State" rule, which was unfortunate. Since there was no nearby bowl for them to play in (the Fiesta had the title game, and the Rose didn't want an all-Pac-10 game), the Trojans ended up in Miami. The other at-large spot was considered to be between Iowa and Notre Dame until Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany said a week before selections that Iowa would be the choice. We're not sure if that had been decided by the committee or if Delany was simply exerting influence, but it did end up being Iowa. Iowa was third in the polls but only fifth in the BCS rankings. The Irish were outside the top 10 of the polls but ninth in the BCS. That would be the only time an eligible Notre Dame team was passed over.

If the soon-to-be-launched four-team playoff were in place: The fourth seed is a tough call. Iowa was third in the polls. The next highest-rated conference champion was Pac-10 co-champ USC, which was fifth in the polls but played the best schedule. USC did not play in the Rose Bowl because it lost a tiebreaker to Washington State, but I don’t believe that would matter to a selection committee. If Iowa’s only loss had come to Ohio State instead of to Iowa State, the Hawkeyes might have gotten the nod, anyway, but they didn’t play the Buckeyes.
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utee94

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #137 on: July 21, 2023, 11:40:55 AM »
Why do people refer to them as "computer polls?" 

Who are the computers polling, to determine their rankings?

Also why do people refer to the poll voters as "pollsters?"  Pollsters are the people who administer a poll, not the people who vote in a poll.  Those are just "voters."

So we have computer rankings, and voters.  Let's get this vocabulary straight, folks.

rolltidefan

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #138 on: July 21, 2023, 12:51:47 PM »
That wasn't my scenario, it was @Cincydawg .

Anyway, what I really don't like about it is that for a lot of our teams, if they lose three games against their best three opponents, who did they beat?

Looking at last year:
Ohio State:
Their best three opponents were Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame who finished 13-1, 11-2, and 9-4. If they lose those three and go 9-3 their best wins are over 8-5 Iowa and Maryland teams. That is a decent season but nowhere close to great and, in my view, not close to NC worthy.

Alabama:
Their best three opponents were Tennessee, LSU, and MissSt who finished 11-2, 10-4, and 9-4. If they lose those three and go 9-3 their best wins are over 8-5 Ole Miss and Texas teams. That is a decent season but nowhere close to great and, in my view, not close to NC worthy.

Michigan:
Their best two opponents were tOSU and PSU who each finished 11-2. After that it is either Purdue (finished 8-6) or an 8-5 pick-em of Iowa, Illinois, or Maryland. Same as tOSU/Bama.

Georgia:
Their best three opponents were Tennessee, Oregon, and MissSt who finished 11-2, 10-3, and 9-4. If they lose those three and finish 9-3 their best win is over 8-5 USCe. Same as tOSU/Bama/M.
agreed.

i guess 'those that be' have decided that the risk of having an "unworthy" playoff participant is more desirable than the risk of having a "worthy" participant not able to participate.

there's not a 'clean' answer that removes unworthy while assuring all worthy are included. i don't have an issue either way, tbh. i guess i fall under inclusion more than exclusion. what i don't like, i guess, is even among the 'unworthy', there are levels. and i don't want one of the inclusion automatics to be something that allows a borderline bowl team into the playoffs over someone that was a borderline bcs team (but otherwise clear high-bowl team). neither might be 'worthy' of the cfp, but one is wholly unworthy while the other is at least questionable.

i guess we could go through and say 'this year it's 5, this year it's 2, this year it's 9' etc. but that won't ever happen and would be a logistics nightmare.

Cincydawg

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #139 on: July 21, 2023, 01:29:33 PM »
I suspect most 3 loss teams would have lost in at least one upset.  Take last season, say UGA loses to Mizzou, Tenn, and Georgia Tech, but win the SEC and is 10-3.  They'd make a 12 team playoff, they might even be a top 4 seed (depending).

 

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