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Topic: Phil Steele's Top 25
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utee94 · « **Reply #70 on:** July 19, 2023, 10:17:32 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 19, 2023, 10:12:04 AM

Agreed, and what I don't like about it is that it takes away the "every game matters" feel that our sport had in the past, for example:In the 4-team CFP era, the BCS era, or the pre-BCS era that 10-3 Alabama team is not in the NC conversation. In a 12-team format they have a solid chance to win. Just so @rolltidefan knows, that isn't to pick on Bama, it is the same for all the helmets.

Oh yeah, I'm not disputing that it changes the feel of college football. College football fans have long valued the ideal of the undefeated national champion.

But for me, that ideal was shattered years ago. We've already traversed the "bridge too far" and this is nothing more than just a little bit further incrementalism.

FearlessF · « **Reply #71 on:** July 19, 2023, 10:27:59 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 19, 2023, 10:12:04 AM

Just so @rolltidefan knows, that isn't to pick on Bama, it is the same for all the helmets.

no worries

Georgia is the new Bama

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #72 on:** July 19, 2023, 11:28:04 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 10:17:32 AM

Oh yeah, I'm not disputing that it changes the feel of college football. College football fans have long valued the ideal of the undefeated national champion.

But for me, that ideal was shattered years ago. We've already traversed the "bridge too far" and this is nothing more than just a little bit further incrementalism.

It has but it keeps getting worse.

Back during the BCS era my Buckeyes and your Longhorns played two great early OOC games. I left the 2005 game knowing that tOSU's NC chances were practically nil. You left the 2006 game knowing that UT's NC chances were practically nil.

It was only one game but the impact was still humongous. Consider the final 2005 regular season AP Poll:

12-0 USC
12-0 Texas
10-1 Penn State (lost to #20 Michigan, won Big11Ten on tiebreaker over tOSU)
9-2 Ohio State (lost to #2 TX and #3 PSU).

If Texas had lost in Columbus, the Nittany Lions probably would have played the Trojans in the BCSCG.

With four teams a single loss still might wreck your chances and at least so far two losses has always been too many.

With 12 teams, well (final regular season AP Polls)

2022: Utah and KSU were top-12 with three losses
2021: Utah was top-12 with three losses
2020: Florida and ISU were top-12 with three losses
2019: Auburn and Wisconsin were top-12 with three losses
2018: Washington, Florida, and LSU were top-12 with three losses

My supposition is that for Helmets and for teams highly ranked in the preseason, two losses will be a lock and three will probably be roughly a coin-flip depending on other factors such as SoS and MOV/MOL.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #73 on:** July 19, 2023, 12:08:33 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2023, 10:27:59 AM

Georgia is the new Bama

I disagree, at this point, for obvious reasons. Longevity and consistency I think aare relevant.

FearlessF · « **Reply #74 on:** July 19, 2023, 12:44:50 PM »

yup, I'd guess more folks around the CFB nation are rooting against Bama than Georgia, but don't be winning 3 in a row.

It would change in a hurry

Cincydawg · « **Reply #75 on:** July 19, 2023, 12:58:33 PM »

A Threepeat would start to shift the convo pretty dramatically. Even making the CFP and losing would be some confirmation, but a not yet.

utee94 · « **Reply #76 on:** July 19, 2023, 02:30:46 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 19, 2023, 11:28:04 AM

It has but it keeps getting worse.

Back during the BCS era my Buckeyes and your Longhorns played two great early OOC games. I left the 2005 game knowing that tOSU's NC chances were practically nil. You left the 2006 game knowing that UT's NC chances were practically nil.

It was only one game but the impact was still humongous. Consider the final 2005 regular season AP Poll:
12-0 USC
12-0 Texas
10-1 Penn State (lost to #20 Michigan, won Big11Ten on tiebreaker over tOSU)
9-2 Ohio State (lost to #2 TX and #3 PSU).
If Texas had lost in Columbus, the Nittany Lions probably would have played the Trojans in the BCSCG.

With four teams a single loss still might wreck your chances and at least so far two losses has always been too many.

With 12 teams, well (final regular season AP Polls)
2022: Utah and KSU were top-12 with three losses
2021: Utah was top-12 with three losses
2020: Florida and ISU were top-12 with three losses
2019: Auburn and Wisconsin were top-12 with three losses
2018: Washington, Florida, and LSU were top-12 with three losses
My supposition is that for Helmets and for teams highly ranked in the preseason, two losses will be a lock and three will probably be roughly a coin-flip depending on other factors such as SoS and MOV/MOL.

Sure but we haven't had anything like the 2005 season in a long time. We're way past that. I don't view a 3-loss team winning a 12-team playoff as significantly worse than 2-loss LSU winning the championship in 2007.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #77 on:** July 19, 2023, 03:27:37 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 02:30:46 PM

Sure but we haven't had anything like the 2005 season in a long time. We're way past that. I don't view a 3-loss team winning a 12-team playoff as significantly worse than 2-loss LSU winning the championship in 2007.

The issue to me is more about the perceived importance of games when they are played than it is about the actual importance in retrospect.

There was always a chance to win an NC with two losses but everyone knew that it was a remote chance. You used LSU as your example because there is no other example in the modern era. In the 50-odd years since the AP moved their final poll to after the bowls there has been one NC with more than one loss, I'm not aware of any others.

A lot of EXTREMELY good one-loss teams never got the chance to play for it. One loss frequently eliminated a team and two almost always did.

Even in the 4-team CFP era a second loss has always been fatal (at least so far).

Even for you and I, as fans of Helmet teams, we knew that even just one bad afternoon drastically reduced our teams' chances of winning it all and with a second loss we needed miracles.

When we go to twelve I think that you and I will more-or-less be able to assume that our teams have at least two and possibly three mulligans available.

Since the poll moved, these are all the years in which an Ohio State team won all but one of their games and didn't win the NC:

69, lost at M as a big favorite
70, lost RB to Stanford as a big favorite
73, tied at M
75, lost to UCLA in RB as a big favorite after having beaten them in October at their place
79, lost to USC in RB by one freaking point
96, lost to M as a big favorite after clinching RB
98, lost to a mediocre (finished 6-6) MSU team
06, lost to UF in BCSCG
10, lost at UW (would have been subsequently vacated)
15, lost to a good but not great MSU team
18, lost at Purdue to a bad team (finished >.500)
19, lost to Clemson in CFP Semi-final
20, lost to Bama in CFPCG

To be fair, the 70, 75, 79, 06, 19, and 20 losses were all in postseason games that were effectively playoff or CG equivalents at least for the Buckeyes but that still leaves seven seasons (69, 73, 96, 98, 10, 15, 18) in the last 54 in which a single regular season loss cost tOSU a NC (or at least a shot at it).

One loss frequently was enough to crush a team's NC dreams. With a 12-team CFP that will only be true in the CFP.

To me, that was a part of what made CFB so intense. Your NC dreams could die on any random Saturday.

utee94 · « **Reply #78 on:** July 19, 2023, 03:41:19 PM »

I get your concerns, and I would have shared them two decades ago. But watching a 2-loss LSU team win the NC, and watching SEC rematches in the championship game, has pretty much disabused me of any such notion at this point.

That's just my opinion and my point of view, others obviously view it differently, but for me the concerns you raise aren't pertinent, because we already blasted past them in the past two decades.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #79 on:** July 19, 2023, 03:56:15 PM »

So an OSU-KU title game in 07 and LSU-OKST in 2011 would have staved off the cheapening of the regular season?

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #80 on:** July 19, 2023, 04:00:16 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 19, 2023, 03:41:19 PM

I get your concerns, and I would have shared them two decades ago. But watching a 2-loss LSU team win the NC, and watching SEC rematches in the championship game, has pretty much disabused me of any such notion at this point.

That's just my opinion and my point of view, others obviously view it differently, but for me the concerns you raise aren't pertinent, because we already blasted past them in the past two decades.

You are right, it has been a progression:

Before the BCS: An individual team could only hope everybody else lost.
BCS: An individual team needed all but one other team to lose then they could take out the last one in the BCSCG.
4-team CFP: An individual team needed all but three cleared for them.

Still I see the jump from needing all but three cleared to needing all but 11 cleared as significant.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #81 on:** July 19, 2023, 04:05:12 PM »

Do you think it will be harder to win an NC with the 12 than it is now?

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #82 on:** July 19, 2023, 04:16:10 PM »

The most unique aspect about college football has always been the high-stakes regular season game. Every game mattered.
That didn't end with the BCS system.
That didn't end in 2007 or 2011.
It ended in 2001 when Nebraska lost 62-36 to Colorado AND IT DIDN'T MATTER.
Yes, it was during the BCS, but it was tweaked each year by people who didn't know what the hell they were doing.
.
So we can blame a compromised BCS for the initial slip down this slope of ever-meaningless regular season outcomes.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #83 on:** July 19, 2023, 04:18:03 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2023, 04:05:12 PM

Do you think it will be harder to win an NC with the 12 than it is now?

Of course.

3 hurdles is harder to clear than 2. And for seeds 5-12, it will be 4 hurdles.

No individual team, however strong it is, is LIKELY going to win a 12-team playoff.

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Topic: Phil Steele's Top 25

utee94

Re: Phil Steele's Top 25

FearlessF

Re: Phil Steele's Top 25

medinabuckeye1

Re: Phil Steele's Top 25

Cincydawg

Re: Phil Steele's Top 25

FearlessF

Re: Phil Steele's Top 25

Cincydawg

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utee94

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medinabuckeye1

Re: Phil Steele's Top 25

utee94

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OrangeAfroMan

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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OrangeAfroMan

Re: Phil Steele's Top 25

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Phil Steele's Top 25