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Topic: Phil Steele's Top 25

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #42 on: July 17, 2023, 04:40:51 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 17, 2023, 04:04:26 PM
It's very possible for UW to finish 11-1 too. I'm starting to feel pretty good about that team.
Imagine this crazy scenario:
  • Penn State finishes 8-1/11-1, loss in Columbus on 10/21
  • Wisconsin finishes 8-1/11-1, loss at home to Ohio State on 10/28
  • Michigan finishes 8-1/11-1, loss in Happy Valley on 11/11
  • Ohio State finishes 8-1/11-1, loss in Ann Arbor on 11/25.
Traditionally early losses were better than late losses so the rankings order would be the above.


The committee seems to value SoS which I think would be:
  • Ohio State, played the other three plus Notre Dame
  • Penn State, played 2/3 of the others plus WVU
  • Michigan, played 2/3 of the others
  • Wisconsin, played 1/3 of the others

Then the most likely B1GCG would be yet another tOSU/UW tilt but with interesting stakes. The winner would be a lock for the CFP but what about the loser?

If Wisconsin loses they are out. They'd be 0-2 against the other three.

If Ohio State loses it gets interesting. All four teams would be exactly .500 against each other:
  • 2-2 Ohio State H win, A win, N loss, A loss
  • 1-1 Wisconsin H loss, N win
  • 1-1 PSU and M H win, A loss
Ohio State probably loses due to having two losses, but they'd also have a LOT better wins than any of the others.

Wisconsin probably gets a CFP berth as league Champion but what if there is one more slot available? Does it go to Ohio State who played but lost the CG? Maybe Michigan who beat Ohio State but lost to Penn State, or Penn State who beat Michigan but lost to Ohio State?
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Temp430

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #43 on: July 18, 2023, 07:00:41 AM »
I would go to Michigan because Ohio/Penn State suck.
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FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #44 on: July 18, 2023, 07:11:53 AM »
I'd guess it goes to Michigan for merits of last season
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #45 on: July 18, 2023, 09:04:22 AM »
Quote from: Temp430 on July 18, 2023, 07:00:41 AM
I would go to Michigan because Ohio/Penn State suck.
Quote from: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 07:11:53 AM
I'd guess it goes to Michigan for merits of last season
IMHO, it would depend at least in part on two things:

SoS:
Just how good/bad are Notre Dame and West Virginia. I'm thinking that ND will be pretty solid, say 9-3 and that WVU will be around .500. However, ND/WVU being better/worse would help/hurt tOSU/PSU.

MOV:
How close were the two tOSU/UW games, how close were tOSU/PSU, PSU/M, tOSU/M?

Best case argument for tOSU:
  • tOSU blows out ND
  • tOSU blows out PSU
  • tOSU blows out UW in Madison
  • tOSU loses a close one in Ann Arbor
  • tOSU loses a close one in Indianapolis
  • Notre Dame finishes 11-1
Best case argument for Penn State:
  • PSU blows out WVU
  • PSU loses a close one in Columbus
  • PSU blows out Michigan
  • WVU finishes 12-1
Best case argument for Michigan:
  • Michigan loses a close one in Happy Valley
  • Michigan blows out Ohio State
  • ND and WVU are not ranked, preferably close to or below .500.

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Temp430

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #46 on: July 18, 2023, 09:06:42 AM »
The Buckeyes better not sleep walk into South Bend.  Notre Dame is no push over.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #47 on: July 18, 2023, 12:32:43 PM »
Wouldn't be surprised at all if the Irish won,tOSU could lose to them,UW/UM/PSU. Hell maybe even sparty  But 3 losses isn't out of the realm IMHO unless some one establishes themselves under center
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utee94

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #48 on: July 18, 2023, 12:49:10 PM »
Sandbags are plentiful this year, I see.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #49 on: July 18, 2023, 06:27:27 PM »
If, IF the first year of the 12-team playoff gave us our first-ever 3-loss NC, do you think everyone freaks out and tries to change things up?
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FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #50 on: July 18, 2023, 06:29:03 PM »
some might freak out, but it's gonna stay at 12 cause there's more money with 12 than 4
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utee94

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #51 on: July 18, 2023, 06:30:13 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 18, 2023, 06:27:27 PM
If, IF the first year of the 12-team playoff gave us our first-ever 3-loss NC, do you think everyone freaks out and tries to change things up?
I'd laugh and then I'd say that all those other chump teams shouldn't have let themselves get beat by a 3-loss suckbutt. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #52 on: July 18, 2023, 06:33:08 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 18, 2023, 06:27:27 PM
If, IF the first year of the 12-team playoff gave us our first-ever 3-loss NC, do you think everyone freaks out and tries to change things up?
Depends.

If the team in question is a helmet, it'll be a case of "we all knew they were REALLY good and deserving, it just took some time for the team to reach its potential."

If the team in question is not a helmet, who perhaps just gets in by virtue of backdooring their way into the CFP by winning their division via tiebreaker, winning their CCG by a whisker, and then looks JUST BARELY competent enough to squeak by their CFP opponents... Yeah, the CFB world will be apoplectic. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #53 on: July 18, 2023, 06:35:06 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 06:29:03 PM
some might freak out, but it's gonna stay at 12 cause there's more money with 12 than 4
Yeah, I assume there's some kind of decade-long contract, but if they'd start massaging the language on it, a la the BCS alterations that became an annual thing.
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FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #54 on: July 18, 2023, 06:47:25 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 18, 2023, 06:30:13 PM
I'd laugh and then I'd say that all those other chump teams shouldn't have let themselves get beat by a 3-loss suckbutt. 
yup, just like getting beat by TCU!!!
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utee94

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #55 on: July 18, 2023, 06:52:43 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 18, 2023, 06:47:25 PM
yup, just like getting beat by TCU!!!

Exactly!  Believe me, I was rooting for Michigan in that game bigtime, because I know two absolute insufferable TCU fans.  But when Michigan lost I just had to laugh at the Wolverines.

Wanna prove you're the better team?  Win the damn game.
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