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#54 QB

gotta give extra weight to that

[img width=274.381 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/7tN2PXj.png[/img]

Deeper dive on Penn State, will this be their year?

First, at least per Steele's analysis, that Defense is just scary. He breaks defense into three components and Penn State is #1 in the league in each. Second place finishes are spread among three schools but they each have at least a relative weakness:

• Michigan is 2/3/4
• Ohio State is 2/4/4
• Iowa is 2/3/8

They should be scary good.

The offense:
I'm biased because Penn State's expected starting QB went to my High School but I watched him in High School and I think he'll be a great one.

QB, per Steele, is the relative weakness with RB's and Oline both third behind Michigan and Ohio State. WR's are fourth behind Ohio State, Maryland, and Minnesota.

If their new QB is as good as I think he'll be, this should be a Championship caliber Penn State team.

The schedule:

• 9/2 vs WVU #57
• 9/9 vs Delaware FCS
• 9/16 at Illinois #45
• 9/23 vs Iowa #37
• 9/30 at Northwestern #67
• 10/7 off
• 10/14 vs UMASS #133
• 10/21 at Ohio State #1
• 10/28 vs Indiana #75
• 11/4 at Maryland #44
• 11/11 vs Michigan #6
• 11/18 vs Rutgers #78
• 11/24 "at" Michigan State (Friday night at Ford Field) #31
• 12/1 B1GCG (if all goes well for them)

I've added the 2023 ESPN FPI ranking for each of PSU's opponents. I realize that is far from an exact science and some here will argue with some of the rankings but they do #1 all the way to #133 and even though the rankings will not be exactly accurate, the general idea is reasonably close.

Penn State went 11-2 last year with losses to Ohio State and Michigan and it is worse than that. The Nittany Lions haven't beaten either the Buckeyes or the Wolverines since before the pandemic and they haven't beaten both in the same season since 2008 when Michigan was struggling through their 3-9 debacle, Jim Tressel was the HC at Ohio State, and Joe Paterno was still in charge in Happy Valley. If they can't get those monkeys off their back, they can't take the next step.

Thus, THE critical games on Penn State's schedule are the visit to Columbus on October 21 and the home game against Michigan three weeks later.

After that, I think Penn State's next toughest game is at Illinois on September 16. There are arguments for:

• vs #31 MSU (neutral site on 11/24)
• vs #37 Iowa on 9/23
• at #44 Maryland on 11/4

All those teams are ranked higher in ESPN's FPI than Illinois (#45) and the Maryland game could be a "trap game" as it is one week before Michigan but I think that the Illinois game is the bigger threat because it will be Allar's first road game as starting QB.

Penn State's most likely losses, IMHO:

• at Ohio State (not saying tOSU will be better than Michigan, this is away and that is home).
• vs Michigan 
• at Illinois - see above
• at Maryland - potential trap game, easy to look ahead to Michigan 
• vs Iowa - The concern here is that Iowa tends to be the type of team where even if you thoroughly dominate them you end up winning something like 17-7 and those types of games are close enough where one or two plays could flip the result. 
• vs West Virginia - I put the Mountaineers ahead of the Spartans only due to timing. WVU will be the QB's first start, MSU will be his twelfth. 
• vs Michigan State (Ford Field)

The rest aren't worth spending much time thinking about. The remaining league games are home games against Rutgers and Indiana and a road game against cratering Northwestern. The remaining OOC games are an FCS opponent and literally the worst team in the FBS.

I don't think so.  I think Penn State will be good but not THAT good.

Even if @Temp430 is wrong and PSU is good enough to split with the Buckeyes and Wolverines and they both also split, you'd still only see three 11-1 teams if all three of them each win all 10 other games. Granted, a loss in any individual one of those is reasonably unlikely and most would be at least somewhat surprising upsets, but upsets do happen.

If we assume that tOSU/PSU/M each have a 98% chance to win each of their "other" 10 games, the chance that they actually will go a collective 30-0 in those games is only about 50/50*.

*If there is a stats geek to check me, I think the math is .98^30 which works out to about a 54.5% chance.

I'm not saying it is impossible or even implausible, just that there is a LOT of football to be played before we consider that a serious possibility.

FWIW: If it DOES happen the first potentially decisive tiebreaker is the record of each team's cross-divisional opponents. In this case those are:

• PSU: Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern
• M: Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue
• tOSU: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue

My early hunch is that would eliminate Michigan because so long as Wisconsin has a better record than Nebraska, the Buckeyes' B1G-W opponents will have a better record than the Wolverines' B1G-W opponents.

That would leave it between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. If I had to guess, I'd guess that Ohio State would win on the theory that:

• Wisconsin (an Ohio State opponent) will have the best record of the six.
• Northwestern (a Penn State opponent) will have the worst record of the six.
• Iowa and Illinois (PSU opponents) will probably be better than Minnesota and Purdue (tOSU opponents) but not by enough to make up for Wisconsin's advantage over Northwestern.

Note also that B1G rules stipulate that if only two teams are left after any tiebreaker step, the winner of the game between those two goes to Indianapolis. Thus, assuming that the home team wins the games amongst the top-three (ie, tOSU>PSU>M>tOSU) then the Buckeyes wouldn't actually need to win this step, they'd just need to eliminate Michigan (which UW>UNL accomplishes) and then at least tie PSU.

FWIW: If it DOES happen the first potentially decisive tiebreaker is the record of each team's cross-divisional opponents. In this case those are:

• PSU: Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern
• M: Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue
• tOSU: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue

More final weekend fun:
Penn State plays Michigan State at Ford Field on Friday night (Black Friday) so they'll be done early. Also on Friday, Iowa (PSU opponent) plays Nebraska (M opponent).

On Saturday of course Ohio State will be looking for revenge in Ann Arbor but also:

• Illinois and Northwestern play in Champagne-Urbana, that is net zero as it will be one win and one loss for PSU's opponents.
• Minnesota (tOSU and M opponent) hosts Wisconsin (tOSU opponent). That will be 1-1 for tOSU's opponents but either 1-0 or 0-1 for M's opponents.
• Purdue (tOSU and M opponent) hosts Indiana. That doesn't matter for tOSU/M but it does matter for that winner vs PSU.

The bottom line is that if the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions head into the final weekend with the possibility of all going 11-1, there could be a slew of games potentially relevant to determining which one goes to Indianapolis. The potentially relevant games would be:

• Iowa at Nebraska on 11/24 at noon on CBS
• Penn State / Michigan State at Ford Field on 11/24 at 7:30 on NBC
• Ohio State at Michigan on 11/25 at noon on FOX
• Indiana at Purdue on 11/25 TBD
• Wisconsin at Minnesota on 11/25 TBD

I think it would be hilarious if the B1G-E representative to the B1GCG was determined by either the Old Oaken Bucket or Paul Bunyan's Axe 🪓 games or better yet both.

I miss fat RBs.
With everyone in a shotgun set, there are fewer and fewer of them.
It's sad.

That step would be determinitive in a three-way tie between tOSU, PSU, and M at 8-1 unless:

• Wisconsin and Nebraska have the same final record, and
• UW/UNL, MN, PU have the same combined final record as IL, IA, and NU.

In the event that this step was all tied up, the remaining B1G tiebreakers are:

• Record against the best team(s) in the other division, then the next, etc.
• Overall winning percentage. (Not including exempted games)
• Random draw.

The rules stipulate that when comparing records against the best team(s) in the other division, % prevails even if the number of games is unequal so 1-0 IS better that 0-0.


If we somehow got to overall winning percentage, Michigan would win. This is because:

• Ohio State has the most likely OOC loss (at ND),
• Michigan has no plausible OOC losses, and
• Penn State has an FCS game that doesn't count as a win.

Thus:

• Penn State would lose because even if they are 11-1, they would only be 10-1 in games that count. 
• Whether or not Ohio State wins in South Bend is irrelevant because Michigan wins either way.