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Deeper dive on Penn State, will this be their year?
First, at least per Steele's analysis, that Defense is just scary. He breaks defense into three components and Penn State is #1 in the league in each. Second place finishes are spread among three schools but they each have at least a relative weakness:
- Michigan is 2/3/4
- Ohio State is 2/4/4
- Iowa is 2/3/8
They should be scary good.
The offense:
I'm biased because Penn State's expected starting QB went to my High School but I watched him in High School and I think he'll be a great one.
QB, per Steele, is the relative weakness with RB's and Oline both third behind Michigan and Ohio State. WR's are fourth behind Ohio State, Maryland, and Minnesota.
If their new QB is as good as I think he'll be, this should be a Championship caliber Penn State team.
The schedule:
- 9/2 vs WVU #57
- 9/9 vs Delaware FCS
- 9/16 at Illinois #45
- 9/23 vs Iowa #37
- 9/30 at Northwestern #67
- 10/7 off
- 10/14 vs UMASS #133
- 10/21 at Ohio State #1
- 10/28 vs Indiana #75
- 11/4 at Maryland #44
- 11/11 vs Michigan #6
- 11/18 vs Rutgers #78
- 11/24 "at" Michigan State (Friday night at Ford Field) #31
- 12/1 B1GCG (if all goes well for them)
I've added the 2023 ESPN FPI ranking for each of PSU's opponents. I realize that is far from an exact science and some here will argue with some of the rankings but they do #1 all the way to #133 and even though the rankings will not be exactly accurate, the general idea is reasonably close.
Penn State went 11-2 last year with losses to Ohio State and Michigan and it is worse than that. The Nittany Lions haven't beaten either the Buckeyes or the Wolverines since before the pandemic and they haven't beaten both in the same season since 2008 when Michigan was struggling through their 3-9 debacle, Jim Tressel was the HC at Ohio State, and Joe Paterno was still in charge in Happy Valley. If they can't get those monkeys off their back, they can't take the next step.
Thus, THE critical games on Penn State's schedule are the visit to Columbus on October 21 and the home game against Michigan three weeks later.
After that, I think Penn State's next toughest game is at Illinois on September 16. There are arguments for:
- vs #31 MSU (neutral site on 11/24)
- vs #37 Iowa on 9/23
- at #44 Maryland on 11/4
All those teams are ranked higher in ESPN's FPI than Illinois (#45) and the Maryland game could be a "trap game" as it is one week before Michigan but I think that the Illinois game is the bigger threat because it will be Allar's first road game as starting QB.