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Topic: Phil Steele's Top 25

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longhorn320

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #14 on: July 10, 2023, 12:18:51 PM »
This year Texas has one of those teams that just might surprise some folks

We will have the best offensive line that weve had in years and a returning QB

We will also have 4 good receivers returning

winning the close games will be the difference
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FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #15 on: July 10, 2023, 01:04:01 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 10, 2023, 12:12:59 PM
It could be, but I doubt it would be for some of their opponents.  An "Ole Miss" could upset them and still finish 8-5.
8-5 with a "W" over Bama would be a really good season for Ole Miss
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2023, 03:49:43 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2023, 01:04:01 PM
8-5 with a "W" over Bama would be a really good season for Ole Miss
I think the distinction he is making, and I agree, is that of the first four teams on Bama's schedule, Texas I'd the only one that I would think was a NC Contender with a win over Bama. 

As a neutral fan, if MTSU, USF, or Ole Miss beats Bama I'll assume that it was a random upset. Essentially I'll think that it was a result of some combination of MTSU/USF/Ole Miss had a REALLY good game and/or Bama had a REALLY bad game znd that is that. 

Texas is a different story. I see them as a potential NC Contender so if they beat Bama (in Tuscaloosa no less), I will see them as a definite NC Contender. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2023, 03:53:35 PM »
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FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2023, 04:07:31 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 10, 2023, 03:49:43 PM
I think the distinction he is making, and I agree, is that of the first four teams on Bama's schedule, Texas I'd the only one that I would think was a NC Contender with a win over Bama.

Texas is a different story. I see them as a potential NC Contender so if they beat Bama (in Tuscaloosa no less), I will see them as a definite NC Contender.
I would agree with this
I also think that even with a single loss to Bama, the Horns could run through the rest of that slate and get in the playoff.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #19 on: July 10, 2023, 05:05:00 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 10, 2023, 04:07:31 PM
I would agree with this
I also think that even with a single loss to Bama, the Horns could run through the rest of that slate and get in the playoff.
Definitely, but a win gives them some margin for error. 
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utee94

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2023, 05:09:44 PM »
I like the way y'all are talking!

Personally I think we're probably more like a 3-4 loss team but hope springs eternal.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2023, 06:29:59 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 10, 2023, 05:09:44 PM
I like the way y'all are talking!

Personally I think we're probably more like a 3-4 loss team but hope springs eternal.
If I had to guess, I'd say 9-3 but I'm counting the game in Tuscaloosa as one of the three losses and I'm viewing the Red River Shootout as a toss up. If Texas beats Bama that takes away one of my projected losses and gives me a higher opinion of Texas which would improve my view of the Oklahoma game from 50/50 to something like 70/30. 
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CatsbyAZ

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2023, 11:52:28 AM »
Washington at #14 seems high. Lindy's has the Huskies #7.

The Huskies won a lot of squeakers down the stretch, often in a shootout, while the defense gave up a lot of yardage. The defense doesn't look to be any better, though the pass rush is strong, and the offense comes down to Michael Penix remaining healthy. Penix had an outstanding showing last season, and he enters this season as a Heisman candidate. But after completing last season uninjured, after transferring from Indiana where he was constantly injured, dare I say Penix is due for an injury?

@ Michigan State on September 16 will confirm or correct expectations.
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FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2023, 12:02:47 PM »
just another case of the returning QB having too much weight

Utah and Oregon St. have the better returning O-lines in the PAC

https://247sports.com/longformarticle/college-football-rankings-michigan-georgia-texas-headline-top-10-211345965/#2180866

Maybe Washington plays defense???
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847badgerfan

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #24 on: July 17, 2023, 07:53:48 AM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #25 on: July 17, 2023, 07:58:00 AM »
I think the close losses metric (or wins) is worth consideration (mean regression).  I see these QB rankings and pay relatively little attention, we often see some unknown come in and blow the dots off.  A team with a newbie QB might have four games with pastries and suddenly he's doing pretty well down the line.
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FearlessF

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #26 on: July 17, 2023, 08:06:27 AM »
Phil's position group ranks would give me hope vs Minnesoota in the first game

I assumed the Goopher's O-line and D-line would be rated much better than the Huskers
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847badgerfan

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Re: Phil Steele's Top 25
« Reply #27 on: July 17, 2023, 08:12:16 AM »
If this rings true, Penn State is gonna have a helluva defense.
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