Woo!
1-11 incoming!
I looked because I was curious and FWIW, I actually think Purdue's schedule is reasonably favorable for them.
According to ESPN/SP+, Purdue is projected to be the worst team in the B1G (#83 nationally) with an SP+ of -3.1. As we have discussed, HFA is most relevant in the games against teams rated the closest to the team in question. Two examples:
Purdue and Ohio State both travel to Indiana this season. Assuming the SP+ ratings are even remotely close to accurate, the location of that game is almost completely irrelevant for Purdue as they'd be a 3TD underdog on a neutral field so they have almost no chance of winning in either Bloomington or West Lafayette. Conversely, for Ohio State, the location of the IU game in Bloomington is a major disadvantage because according to SP+ the Buckeyes would be roughly a TD favorite on a neutral field and borderline double-digit favorite in Columbus but in Bloomington the game is close to a toss-up.
Purdue and Ohio State both host Maryland this season. Assuming the SP+ ratings are even remotely close to accurate, the location of that game is almost completely irrelevant for Ohio State as they'd be roughly a 4TD favorite on a neutral field so they should win easily in either Columbus or College Park. Conversely, for Purdue, the location of the Maryland game in West Lafayette is a major advantage because according to SP+ the Boilermakers would be roughly a TD underdog on a neutral field so they would be a borderline double-digit dog in Maryland but at home that game is close to a toss-up.
I think Purdue's schedule is reasonably favorable because they play two of the next four projected worst teams and get both at home. The boilermakers also miss four of the projected best five teams in the league (tOSU, ORE, USC, M) so that helps.
I'm not predicting that Purdue will win the league but it wouldn't be all that surprising if they managed to attain bowl eligibility.
