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Topic: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles

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medinabuckeye1

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Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« on: Today at 11:43:43 AM »
Link.  


  • Texas
  • Michigan
  • USC
  • Arkansas
  • Oklahoma
  • Ohio State
  • Michigan State
  • Mississippi State
  • Purdue
  • Florida
  • Kentucky
  • Stanford
  • North Carolina
  • Northwestern
  • LSU
  • Ole Miss
  • Boston College
  • Georgia
  • Alabama
  • Oregon
  • Mizzou
  • Tennessee
  • Vanderbilt
  • Indiana
  • USCe
  • 26 Nebraska
  • 29 UCLA
  • 31 Minnesota
  • 32 Wisconsin
  • 36 Rutgers
  • 39 Maryland
  • 44 Washington
  • 48 Illinois
  • 53 Penn State
  • 57 Iowa

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847badgerfan

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #1 on: Today at 11:46:00 AM »
I'll take being #32 this year over #1 or #2 last year.
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utee94

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #2 on: Today at 11:49:07 AM »
Dooooooommmeeed
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ELA

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #3 on: Today at 12:38:15 PM »
Should go great
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Cincydawg

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #4 on: Today at 01:00:17 PM »
UGA has a pretty light schedule this year, relatively.  They are dropping a lot of their "extra" P5 opponents because of the 9 game conference slate, which I feared would happen.  GaTech does seem to be improving of late.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #5 on: Today at 03:27:52 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on Today at 11:49:07 AM
Dooooooommmeeed
As you know, I thought Texas got hosed last year.  They went 9-3 but did it on a brutal schedule.  They were 2-2 against CFP teams with wins over OU and aTm at home and road losses to Ohio State and Georgia.  

I'm concerned that Ohio State could suffer a similar fate this year.  The Buckeyes have six games against teams included in ESPN's preseason top-25 (using that for now until AP comes out):
  • vs #2 Oregon on November 7
  • at #5 Texas on September 12
  • at #6 Indiana on October 17
  • vs #14 Michigan on November 28
  • at #19 Iowa on October 3
  • at #20 USC on November 7

Here is a scenario for Ohio State that is more-or-less a duplication of what Texas did last year:
  • Lose at Texas
  • Lose at Iowa
  • Lose at Indiana
  • Beat Oregon at home
  • Beat Michigan at home
  • Win at USC
  • Win the rest of the games
Ohio State would be 9-3 including perfect at home including impressive home wins over Oregon and Michigan and a tough road win at USC and . . . Possibly left out of the CFP in favor of a team or teams that played easier schedules and finished with better records.  


I obviously care about Ohio State but my concern here is more for the broader impact on the sport.  If that happens to Ohio State this year then I have to believe that the AD's at Texas and Ohio State are going to put their heads together and realize that playing each other cost them each a CFP spot because:
  • If Texas had beaten Ohio U at home on August 30, 2025 instead of losing in Columbus then they'd have finished the season 10-2 and with a H2H win over 10-2 Oklahoma and the Longhorns would have gotten either Oklahoma's or Miami's spot.  
  • Hypothetically, if Ohio State beats Texas State at home on September 12, 2026 instead of losing in Austin then they'd finish 10-2 and be pretty clearly in.  

Obviously there are some other factors at play as well.  Ohio State and Texas get a lot more ticket revenue and national attention by playing each other than they would by playing OhioU/TexasSt but I have to believe that a CFP spot would EASILY make up for that.  I am opposed to any system that incentivizes weak schedules.  
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utee94

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #6 on: Today at 03:36:31 PM »
Yeah Texas will play Ohio State this year and Michigan next year, but only because those are both return games at home.  If Michigan next year were on the road, I'm pretty sure Texas woulda "noped" out.  There are rumors we're gonna nope out of the Notre Dame series in 2028/2029.  I'd be disappointed but it's hard to fault the administration for it.

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #7 on: Today at 03:54:16 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on Today at 03:36:31 PM
Yeah Texas will play Ohio State this year and Michigan next year, but only because those are both return games at home.  If Michigan next year were on the road, I'm pretty sure Texas woulda "noped" out.  There are rumors we're gonna nope out of the Notre Dame series in 2028/2029.  I'd be disappointed but it's hard to fault the administration for it.
I'm in the same boat.  Ohio State has Bama (27 in Columbus, 28 in Tuscaloosa) and Georgia (30 in Athens, 31 in Columbus) upcoming but if they look at what happened to Texas last year and what could and still might happen to Ohio State this year and decide to cancel those games my feeling will be the same as yours.  I'll be disappointed but I will blame the structure/voters not my own school's administration.  
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Mdot21

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #8 on: Today at 04:15:07 PM »
2nd toughest schedule in the country...Bryce Underwood better be ready to play. 

I think Michigan will be surprisingly good on defense even with the personnel losses. Whittingham is a hard nosed SOB whose teams always play tough and he brought some good players with him- John Henry Daley at EDGE, Jonah Lea'a at D-tackle, and Smith Snowden at nickel- all high quality players on that side of the ball. 

Henry Daley is an instant star out at EDGE, Cam Brandt is a solid experienced starter at the other EDGE and Michigan has lot of young highly recruited/highly regarded talent at EDGE waiting in the wings- Dom Nichols & Lugard Edokpayi are guys this staff are very high on and former OMERG 5 STARZ Nate Marshall who flashed last year in moments and another OMERG 5 STARZ true frosh Carter Meadows.

Secondary should be in good shape with Jyaire Hill and Zeke Berry coming back at CB, Smith Snowden coming over at nickel, Shamari Earls waiting in the wings at CB3, and Rod Moore coming back for his 6th year at free safety. LB is biggest question mark on that side of ball- but I think they'll be solid. 

Bryce better be putting in the work. Need to see massive improvement from him this year because I think he'll have a pretty damn good defense backing him up and should have a really good run game with Jordan Marshall and the all everything OMERG 5 STARZ freak Savion Hiter. #HailHiter! 
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847badgerfan

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #9 on: Today at 04:34:03 PM »
I think everyone should freeze Notre Dame out. Let 'em play Rice, Army, Navy, Air Force, BYU, UNLV and the like.

They are playing 3 B1G teams this season, including mine, and I hate it.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Phil Steel's toughest 2026 CFB Scheudles
« Reply #10 on: Today at 04:37:40 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on Today at 04:15:07 PM
2nd toughest schedule in the country...Bryce Underwood better be ready to play.
Michigan's schedule is tough but I think that the rating I linked may be undervaluing HFA because Michigan's schedule doesn't look THAT tough to me.  

Michigan does have road games against ESPN's preseason #1 (Ohio State) and #2 (Oregon) teams and obviously that is rough but after that it looks manageable to me.  They only have four road games and the other two are against Minnesota and Rutgers so they should win those.  If they take care of business at home they'll make the CFP even with losses in both Columbus and Eugene.  Their other games against ESPN preseason top-25 teams are:
  • #6 Indiana in Ann Arbor on October 24
  • #13 Oklahoma in Ann Arbor on September 12
  • #15 Penn State in Ann Arbor on October 17
  • #19 Iowa in Ann Arbor on September 26


It is a weird split having what are effectively the two toughest possible games based on ESPN's preseason rankings and then no other serious challenges on the road.  
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