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Topic: Petrino out at Louisville

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #42 on: October 24, 2018, 02:37:55 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 24, 2018, 09:35:43 AM
fair, but after just two seasons he's really upgraded the talent
Not really, actually... Outside of Rondale Moore, I think most of the starters are Hazell holdovers. Even the 2017 recruiting class was *mostly* Hazell's, as it's always difficult for a brand new coach to consider that first class 100% their own.
Even so, the 2017 class had zero 4* players and was ranked 72nd nationally and 14th in the BIG. 
The 2019 class is Brohm's first real upgrade of talent, where we're starting to get players that we'd never have had a shot at before. 
There were some good players in that 2018 class, but the only "instant impact" guy was Moore. If you look at the 2018 commit list, he's really the only one who saw the field:
https://247sports.com/college/purdue/Season/2018-Football/Commits/
The 2017 class has a lot more players seeing the field, but the highest you can really call any of them would be a mid-3*, and there are a few 2* players that are starting. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #43 on: October 24, 2018, 02:51:07 PM »
STARZ and talent don't always mesh.



Jonathan Taylor was a 3* with not a lot of offers, and now he's probably the best running back in the country. There are lots more examples. Just look at your own team.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #44 on: October 24, 2018, 03:18:43 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 24, 2018, 02:51:07 PM
STARZ and talent don't always mesh.

Jonathan Taylor was a 3* with not a lot of offers, and now he's probably the best running back in the country. There are lots more examples. Just look at your own team.
Agreed, but it is quite often a proxy. And for 4 years, Purdue consistently ranked at the bottom of the B1G in STARZ. I find it hard to believe that Hazell was exceptional at finding diamonds in the rough but just couldn't coach them, and that this team is light-years more talented than the recruiting services suggest. Purdue's recent NFL draft results also don't suggest that we've found boatloads of underrated kids in HS who were bursting with talent that just escaped notice.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #45 on: October 24, 2018, 03:20:19 PM »
There is a strong correlation between STARZ and how players perform in college, and later.

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ELA

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #46 on: October 24, 2018, 03:30:37 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 24, 2018, 10:11:59 AM
I think @ELA  should merge it with the completely and totally OT stream of unconsciousness, but I'll defer to him.
Let's be honest, we'll need it at some point.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #47 on: October 24, 2018, 03:40:39 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2018, 03:20:19 PM
There is a strong correlation between STARZ and how players perform in college, and later.
No doubt. Though I think we can safely argue that, given Wisconsin's in-state crew of cornfed Polacks**, and how they are relatively insulated from the recruiting services (whether they commit early or not, are easily underrated), [and not to mention the fact that the Badgers football program is wildly stable, still essentially running Alvarez's way, and free to redshirt almost everyone] that no team is more insulated from that STARZ-to-results correlation like UW.
For a few years, MSU was insulated from that correlation, too. Which I think is interesting: We've come to think of Dantonio as an elite developer of talent. But I think - for a limited while - that he was actually far more elite as a talent identifier. My years could be slightly off, but I'm thinking of the teams from ~2012-2015. The NFL drafts before and after this period were not nearly as kind to his NR/2* kids as they were during that period.

**(don't be an offended if you're Polish; as my dad says when he looks at my bar "But really, what are you doing with Absinthe and bitters - Did you forget you're a Polack from Detroit!?")
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847badgerfan

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #48 on: October 24, 2018, 03:47:23 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2018, 03:20:19 PM
There is a strong correlation between STARZ and how players perform in college, and later.


Sure there is, at some places. Clemson was knocking it out of the park in recruiting STARZ in 2012, but they did some damn good things on the field in the 2-7 years since. Ya still need great coaching to make the kids go. I'm not sure Clemson has ever outranked FSU (or Miami?) in recruiting.
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FearlessF

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #49 on: October 24, 2018, 03:48:54 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 24, 2018, 02:37:55 PM
Not really, actually... Outside of Rondale Moore, I think most of the starters are Hazell holdovers. Even the 2017 recruiting class was *mostly* Hazell's, as it's always difficult for a brand new coach to consider that first class 100% their own.
sorry, I thought it was a very young team similar to Nebraska when they played.  Young guys, but maybe not Brohm's recruits?
WR - jared Sparks soph
OL - Grant Hermanns soph
WRs - Moore frosh & Anthrop soph
DE - Reviere R-frosh
DT - Watts soph
LBs - Jones & Barnes soph
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Cincydawg

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #50 on: October 24, 2018, 03:50:22 PM »
There is a strong and general and broad correlation between STARZ and success on the field.

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FearlessF

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #51 on: October 24, 2018, 03:50:40 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 24, 2018, 03:40:39 PM
No doubt. Though I think we can safely argue that, given Wisconsin's in-state crew of cornfed Polacks**, and how they are relatively insulated from the recruiting services (whether they commit early or not, are easily underrated), [and not to mention the fact that the Badgers football program is wildly stable, still essentially running Alvarez's way, and free to redshirt almost everyone] that no team is more insulated from that STARZ-to-results correlation like UW.
For a few years, MSU was insulated from that correlation, too. Which I think is interesting: We've come to think of Dantonio as an elite developer of talent. But I think - for a limited while - that he was actually far more elite as a talent identifier. My years could be slightly off, but I'm thinking of the teams from ~2012-2015. The NFL drafts before and after this period were not nearly as kind to his NR/2* kids as they were during that period.

**(don't be an offended if you're Polish; as my dad says when he looks at my bar "But really, what are you doing with Absinthe and bitters - Did you forget you're a Polack from Detroit!?")
add Iowa to this list
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FearlessF

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #52 on: October 24, 2018, 03:52:01 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2018, 03:50:22 PM
There is a strong and general and broad correlation between STARZ and success on the field.


true and then there are outliers
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847badgerfan

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #53 on: October 24, 2018, 03:52:41 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 24, 2018, 03:40:39 PM
No doubt. Though I think we can safely argue that, given Wisconsin's in-state crew of cornfed Polacks**, and how they are relatively insulated from the recruiting services (whether they commit early or not, are easily underrated), [and not to mention the fact that the Badgers football program is wildly stable, still essentially running Alvarez's way, and free to redshirt almost everyone] that no team is more insulated from that STARZ-to-results correlation like UW.
For a few years, MSU was insulated from that correlation, too. Which I think is interesting: We've come to think of Dantonio as an elite developer of talent. But I think - for a limited while - that he was actually far more elite as a talent identifier. My years could be slightly off, but I'm thinking of the teams from ~2012-2015. The NFL drafts before and after this period were not nearly as kind to his NR/2* kids as they were during that period.

**(don't be an offended if you're Polish; as my dad says when he looks at my bar "But really, what are you doing with Absinthe and bitters - Did you forget you're a Polack from Detroit!?")
Except that Wisconsin is made up of 45% German descent and 10% Polish. Other than that... Heh.

Iowa is another that gets more out of less. Northwestern too.
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FearlessF

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #54 on: October 24, 2018, 04:00:44 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 24, 2018, 03:52:41 PM
Except that Wisconsin is made up of 45% German descent and 10% Polish. Other than that... Heh.

Iowa is another that gets more out of less. Northwestern too.
yah, but the O-line is 60% polish
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Cincydawg

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Re: Petrino out at Louisville
« Reply #55 on: October 24, 2018, 04:08:35 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 24, 2018, 03:52:01 PM
true and then there are outliers
Of course there are.  No correlation has an r squared of 1.00.  That is the basis of statistics, and why I value statistics over anecdotes.
Well, Billy Bob was a 2 star and an AA.  So what?  That does not diminish the correlation (other than making it slightly less correlated).
I prefer statistics to anecdotes.
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