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Topic: P5 Conference Races

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Cincydawg

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2017, 11:52:25 AM »
A 13-0 P5 conference champion will ALWAYS be selected, every time, unless all four others are also 13-0.

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MrNubbz

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2017, 12:06:29 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 10, 2017, 06:23:01 PM

Q) How do you keep Michigan fans from attending your sporting event?

A) Hold it in Indianapolis.
Oh ST isn't exactly money away from the 'Shoe.Or in it for that matter
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Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

BuckeyeAvenger

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #30 on: November 14, 2017, 10:10:56 PM »
The Buckeyes s/b ranked ahead of ND and Miami s/b ranked above Clemson, otherwise I agree with the latest playoff ranking.

The Buckeyes need the following to happen to take the #4 position by the end, and make the playoff:

1) Buckeyes must win out impressively - no signs of significant weakness.
2) Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma win out.
3) Wisconsin must beat Michigan this weekend.

That should do it, the Buckeyes will earn the 4th spot.
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Kris61

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #31 on: November 15, 2017, 06:29:29 AM »
Quote from: BuckeyeAvenger on November 14, 2017, 10:10:56 PM
The Buckeyes s/b ranked ahead of ND and Miami s/b ranked above Clemson, otherwise I agree with the latest playoff ranking.

The Buckeyes need the following to happen to take the #4 position by the end, and make the playoff:

1) Buckeyes must win out impressively - no signs of significant weakness.
2) Alabama, Miami and Oklahoma win out.
3) Wisconsin must beat Michigan this weekend.

That should do it, the Buckeyes will earn the 4th spot.
Realistically, I think you are right.  I think if those things happen Ohio St is probably in.  But, I'll say this.  If that were to happen, depending on how other games shake out,  I think that an 11-2 Clemson team would have a pretty compelling argument over an 11-2 Ohio St team.
There's a good chance that Clemson could end the year with more wins over ranked teams and more wins over teams with winning records.
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BuckeyeAvenger

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #32 on: November 15, 2017, 08:14:50 AM »
Quote from: Kris61 on November 15, 2017, 06:29:29 AM
Realistically, I think you are right.  I think if those things happen Ohio St is probably in.  But, I'll say this.  If that were to happen, depending on how other games shake out,  I think that an 11-2 Clemson team would have a pretty compelling argument over an 11-2 Ohio St team.
There's a good chance that Clemson could end the year with more wins over ranked teams and more wins over teams with winning records.
You could be right, but they would both have 2 losses and Ohio State would be a conference champion, Clemson would be a non-champion. Additionally, no team has ever lost past the 3rd playoff ranking (last night) and then made the playoff. I don’t see the ACC getting two teams, unless Clemson wins the Championship, and they have two 1 loss teams. Still a lot of football to be played, Ohio State could eliminate themselves just by struggling against Illinois this weekend (Illinois has a better record vs the Buckeyes than most B1G teams). Focus is required for the rest of their games, like the 2nd half of the Penn State game - no room for error.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #33 on: November 16, 2017, 08:06:12 AM »
Quote from: Kris61 on November 15, 2017, 06:29:29 AM
Realistically, I think you are right.  I think if those things happen Ohio St is probably in.  But, I'll say this.  If that were to happen, depending on how other games shake out,  I think that an 11-2 Clemson team would have a pretty compelling argument over an 11-2 Ohio St team.
There's a good chance that Clemson could end the year with more wins over ranked teams and more wins over teams with winning records.
I think that a 2-loss non-Champion could hypothetically beat out a 2-loss Champion but I do not think it would happen in this scenario.  In this scenario Clemson would have wins over:
  • Auburn:  Currently #6 but in this scenario they lose to Bama to finish 9-3 and probably ranked around #12ish.  
  • NCST:  Currently #19 and should win their last two (@Wake, vUNC) to finish 9-3 and probably ranked around #15ish.  
  • VaTech:  Currently unranked but should win their last two (vPitt, @UVA) to finish 9-3 and probably ranked around #20ish.  
  • USCe:  Currently unranked and with a loss to Clemson would finish 8-4 and probably unranked.  
I do not see any other teams on Clemson's schedule with a realistic potential to finish ranked except #3 Miami but in this scenario Clemson would lose to Miami.  Clemson's other loss is to a Syracuse team that is currently 4-6.  

Ohio State's losses are to:
  • Oklahoma:  Currently #4 and would move up to at least #3 in this scenario.  
  • Iowa:  Currently unranked but should win their last two (vPU, @UNL) to finish 8-4 and possibly ranked.  
Ohio State would have wins over:
  • Penn State:  Currently #10 but should win their last two (vUNL, @UMD) to finish 10-2 and top-10.  
  • Michigan State:  Currently #17 but should win their lat two (vUMD, @RU) to finish 9-3 and probably ranked around #15ish.  
  • Michigan:  Currently #24 and in this scenario they lose at least one more (vtOSU) so probably finish unranked.  
  • Wisconsin:  Currently #5 but in this scenario they lose at least one more (vtOSU, B1GCG) and probably finish barely top-10.  

You can certainly argue that Clemson has a tougher schedule but I think that would be debatable and not anywhere near a large enough gap to make up for not being a Conference Champion.  

I think Clemson, as a 2-loss non-Champion would have a much better argument against a hypothetical 11-2 B1G Champion Wisconsin.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #34 on: November 16, 2017, 08:26:33 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 16, 2017, 08:06:12 AM
I think Clemson, as a 2-loss non-Champion would have a much better argument against a hypothetical 11-2 B1G Champion Wisconsin.  
To flesh out this example, suppose:
  • Bama wins out, gets an obvious CFP spot as 13-0 SEC Champion
  • Clemson wins their last two regular season games (vCitadel, @USCe) but loses to
  • Miami wins out, gets an obvious CFP spot as 13-0 ACC Champion
  • Oklahoma wins out, gets an obvious CFP spot as 12-1 B12 Champion
  • Michigan suddenly gets hot, wins their last two (@UW, vtOSU)
  • Wisconsin loses their other remaining regular season game (@MN)
  • Ohio State gets into the B1GCG anyway based on a multi-team tiebreaker with Michigan and either PSU or MSU or both
  • Wisconsin beats Ohio State in Indianapolis to finish 11-2 and B1G Champion
  • Everybody else (ie ND and the P12) basically falls out of the running to leave that last playoff spot between 11-2 non-Champion Clemson and 11-2 B1G Champion Wisconsin
Wisconsin would have MAYBE two wins over ranked teams:
  • Ohio State:  Currently #9 but in this scenario loses twice more to finish 9-4 and likely around #20ish.  
  • Iowa:  Currently unranked but should win their last two (vPU, @UNL) to finish 8-4 and probably ranked.  
Wisconsin's losses would be to:
  • Michigan:  Currently #24 but in this scenario wins out to finish 10-2 and probably ranked around #12ish.  
  • Minnesota:  Currently 5-5 so not a "good" loss no matter what MN does in their other game (@NU).  

I'm still not sure that the committee would view SoS as being enough to override a conference Championship.  
« Last Edit: November 16, 2017, 08:30:35 AM by medinabuckeye1 »
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