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Topic: P5 Conference Races

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medinabuckeye1

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P5 Conference Races
« on: November 08, 2017, 05:55:17 PM »
I covered the B1G-E here and I covered the B1G-W here.  Now for the rest of the P5:

ACC-Atlantic:
Clemson leads at 6-1 with only one game to play (because they have two OOC games down the stretch).  They are tied in the loss column with NCST and they beat NCST H2H.  If they win their last ACC game (vFSU, this weekend) they win the ACC-Atlantic.  If Clemson loses to FSU then NCST can win the ACC-Atlantic by winning out (@BC, @Wake, vUNC).  

All other ACC-Atlantic teams are eliminated.  

ACC-Coastal:
Miami has all but clinched.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 and their closest competitors are the two Virginia Schools at 3-2.  Virginia Tech cannot get to the ACCCG because they already have a H2H loss to the Hurricanes.  Thus, the only way for Miami to miss the ACCCG is if they lose their last two ACC games (vUVA, @Pitt) and for Virginia to win their last three (@Lou, @Miami, vVaTech).  One more Miami win or Virginia loss clinches it for the Hurricanes.  

B12:
I think there might be a theoretical possibility of a 3-loss team sneaking into the B12CG but I highly doubt it so I will confine my analysis to the five teams with two or less conference losses:
  • 5-1 Oklahoma vsTCU this weekend
  • 5-1 TCU @OU this weekend
  • 4-2 OkSU @ISU this weekend
  • 4-2 ISU vOkSU this weekend
  • 4-2 WVU @KSU this weekend
As I see it, OkSU, ISU, and WVU face elimination every weekend.  The Oklahoma/TCU winner takes firm control especially if ISU (which beat them both) loses to OkSU.  

P12-N:
5-1 Washington travels to 5-2 Stanford this weekend.  A Huskies' win would eliminate Stanford.  
5-2 WSU travels to Utah this weekend then has a week off before the Apple Cup.  
5-2 Stanford has to beat Washington this weekend to stay in the race.  They'll still need help due to a H2H loss to WSU.  
Oregon, California, and OrSU are already eliminated.  

P12-S:
6-1 USC has all but clinched because they have wins over the two Arizona schools which are both 4-2.  Utah, UCLA, and Colorado are all eliminated.  One more USC win or one more loss by each of the Wildcats and Sundevils clinches the P12CG for the Trojans.  

SEC-E:
Georgia became the first P5 school to officially mathematically clinch their spot in their CG last weekend when their win and Kentucky's loss wrapped up the SEC-E.  

SEC-W:
Alabama can clinch this weekend with at win (@MissSt) and an Auburn loss (vUGA).  A Bama win eliminates MissSt no matter what happens in the Auburn/UGA game.  

LSU, aTm, Ole Miss, and Ark are already eliminated.  (We covered LSU at length last week.  LSU is eliminated because the best they can do is a 6-2 tie with Bama and Auburn.  Auburn would win that based on divisional record.  MissSt could theoretically also be in that tie but that does not help LSU because they lost to MissSt.  

MissSt is in the race.  If they win out to finish 6-2 they will win the division as long as Auburn loses twice and with UGA and Bama still on Auburn's schedule that is certainly possible.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2017, 06:01:09 PM »
The ACC should be booted from the P5, on account that they don't have a team called The Wildcats. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Cincydawg

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2017, 06:20:20 PM »
Nice summary, thanks.

Cincydawg

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2017, 06:23:25 PM »
Most likely CGs?

USC-Washington
TCU-OU
Miami - Clemson
Georgia - Bama/Auburn/Troy! Some Alabama based team...
Wisconsin - MSU/OSU


FearlessF

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2017, 06:46:32 PM »
I agree most likely, but a ton of football to be played

fun to speculate
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847badgerfan

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2017, 08:29:39 PM »
You da man, Medina. Thanks much.
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Cincydawg

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2017, 09:50:33 AM »
The "most likely CGs" look mostly like what was expected preseason, do they not?

Maybe FSU was somewhere in that.  Some thought Oklahoma State would make a run, and they did.  The SEC was thought to be UGA-Bama with Auburn making a run.    Ohio State was the fav up here and Wisconsin was probably on the other side preseason.

CFB is predictable.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2017, 10:18:26 AM »
I don't think anyone expected MSU or Miami to be anywhere near their CGs. 

TCU was underrated in the preseason, but that tends to be the case in spite of all of their recent and consistent success. So that's one isn't all that alarming. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2017, 11:28:54 AM »
More on the B12 race:

The B12 race is the most wide-open for two reasons.  First, they have no divisions so it is just the best two.  Second, There are five teams with one or two losses and another two teams still mathematically eligible with three losses.  

Standings and (for the mathematically eligible teams which others they beat/lost to, and have yet to play):
  • 5-1 Oklahoma:  Beat UT, KSU, OkSU.  Lost to ISU.  vTCU and vWVU remaining.  
  • 5-1 TCU:  Beat OkSU, WVU, KSU, UT.  Lost to ISU.  @OU remaining.  
  • 4-2 OkSU:  Beat UT, WVU.  Lost to TCU, OU.  @ISU, vKSU remaining.  
  • 4-2 ISU:  Beat OU, TCU.  Lost to UT, WVU.  vOkSU, @KSU remaining.  
  • 4-2 WVU:  Beat ISU.  Lost to TCU, OkSU.  @KSU, vUT, @OU remaining.  
  • 3-3 Texas:  Beat ISU, KSU.  Lost to OU, OkSU, TCU.  @WVU remaining.  
  • 3-3 KSU:  Beat NOBODY.  Lost to UT, TCU, OU.  vWVU, @OkSU, vISU remaining.  
  • 1-5 TTech
  • 1-5 Baylor
  • 0-6 Kansas
TexasTech and Baylor have defeated only Kansas.  They play each other this weekend.  All three (TTech, Baylor, KU) are mathematically eliminated.  

The Oklahoma/TCU game this weekend is probably a preview of the B12CG because those two teams have the best records and the easiest remaining schedules.  

Cincydawg

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2017, 02:55:44 PM »
Miami started the preseason at 18 in the AP, Louisville was at 16 and Clemson and FSU were in the top ten.  So in their division Miami was the top ranked team unless I missed somebody.  VaTech was 21.

Michigan State was well off the list.  

MSU is the only real surprise in the apparent/possible CG list.  They obviously had a bad year last season.

847badgerfan

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2017, 03:14:41 PM »
Miami started the preseason at 18 in the AP, Louisville was at 16 and Clemson and FSU were in the top ten.  So in their division Miami was the top ranked team unless I missed somebody.  VaTech was 21.

Michigan State was well off the list.  

MSU is the only real surprise in the apparent/possible CG list.  They obviously had a bad year last season.
Yeah, but they always start the year ranked and generally they don't live up to it.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2017, 04:42:51 PM »
They did not start ranked in 2016 or 2015, and the point is, they were reasonably expected to win their division this year.  I read quite a bit about it because Richt is there and it peaked my interest.

For the most part the teams expected to win look as if they are going to win this year, which likely is unusual to this degree.


Cincydawg

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2017, 04:54:24 PM »
Or 2014.  Or 2013.

I'm not going back further.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2017, 05:01:53 PM by Cincydawg »

847badgerfan

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Re: P5 Conference Races
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2017, 05:42:02 PM »
I guess we can split hairs but that was not my point. Because they almost always are historically. Sometimes it's deserved and sometimes it's the helmet. Their 376 fans will remind you of it when they are.

They were ranked in week 2 last year. I doubt they achieved any rankings in the few years prior because they sucked. But, like many other helmet schools, the voters are always anxious to rank them.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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