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Topic: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #266 on: March 29, 2018, 02:37:23 PM »
hah, think more like $160/month, 12 months a year
at $1/month to all the little old ladies in the states of New Jersey and New York paying for basic cable with the BTN is much more than all the fanatics paying $100/month
When/if the FCC brings out ala carte programming - us crazy fanatics are going to pay DEARLY for our CFB content
probably just go to purchasing individual games, such as PPV.  Your option on delivery method, IPTV, CATV, streaming.  $50/game, maybe $100/game for the big matchups.
I don't think it will ever work like that.  The biggest games create more revenue when more people watch.  Ie, the advertising revenue for an audience of millions is more than the PPV revenue for a smaller audience.  I almost always watch the NC, but I wouldn't pay $100 to watch it unless Ohio State was in it.  
I think where they will get us for PPV is for smaller games that only us fanatics care about.  Ie, when Nebraska plays some MAC school they might be able to charge you money to watch it because they can't get a huge audience even if it is free.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #267 on: March 29, 2018, 03:50:08 PM »
Since the observation I was making completely addresses Minnesota's absence, your rephrasing is an incomplete summary. It isn't that the tiers became locked beginning some unknown "decades ago" but that they specifically became locked sometime after 1970. I've always acknowledged that it's *possible* that this "locked tiers" claim won't be demonstrated forever. My main emphasis is that, since 1970, this has consistently been our only finding. The helmets in the 70s and 80s have perfectly carried over to become the helmets today -- not one has fallen out.
I didn't mean to misrepresent what you said.  I couldn't remember your exact timeframe so I just said "decades" because I thought that the accuracy made up for the lack of specificity.  
Even there, I still do not agree.  First, I noticed that you phrased it specifically as being inclusionary rather than exclusionary.  Ie, you stated that no helmets have fallen out since 1970.  I would note, however, that Florida, Miami, and Florida State have all, at least arguably, joined the group since that time.  
As far as falling out, like I said upthread and in our previous discussions of this, I do think that it takes a REALLY long time.  I also believe that helmet status is much easier to maintain than it is to attain.  Thus, Michigan doesn't need to win NC's to maintain helmet status but Wisconsin does need to win NC's to attain helmet status.  That said, I still maintain that nothing is permanent and that current "helmets" can and will fall out of that group.  
Since winning back-to-back Conference and National titles with back-to-back undefeated seasons in 1940 and 1941 Minnesota has won only one NC (1960 and it is a very weak claim) and only two conference titles (1960 and 1967, both shared).  That is one NC and two conference titles in 76 years (1942-2017).  
Nebraska's last NC was in 1997 and their last conference title was in 1999 (B12).  If the Cornhuskers only win one NC and two conference titles in the 76 years from 1997-2072 they will clearly no longer be a helmet as of 2072.  
Michigan's last NC was in 1997 and since then (inclusive) they have won five conference titles (97, 98, 00, 03, 04).  If the Wolverines only win one NC and five conference titles in the 76 years from 1997-2072 they will clearly no longer be a helmet as of 2072.  
Ohio State's last NC was in 2014 and since then (inclusive) they have won two conference titles (14, 17).  If the Buckeyes only win one NC and two conference titles in the 76 years from 2014-2089 they will clearly no longer be a helmet as of 2089.  

ELA

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #268 on: March 29, 2018, 04:26:01 PM »
Some helmets are fading. Some are thriving. Some faded and came back to thriving.
But they are still helmets.  Oklahoma, then Notre Dame, then USC, then Nebraska, then Michigan, then Texas, never stopped being helmets while they struggled.  They kept being relevant, they kept recruiting above the level of their on field success, and they keep looking attractive to desired coaches, whether or not the coaches were fits.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #269 on: March 29, 2018, 06:15:38 PM »
I accept that "a helmet falling out" is theoretically possible and could take a loooong time. I also accept that the "they just took a prescribed time to fall out" theory can explain what happened to Minnesota/U-Chicago et al.
However, that theory does not explain why many helmets were lost in the 5 decades before 1970 but zero helmets have been lost in the 5 decades since 1970. That implies a phase change. So I think whatever our best model is, it must account for this phase change.
ONE such model employs an analogy I've written before. That 4-5 billion years ago, there must have been additional planetary bodies (beyond the current 8) that were either catapulted from our solar system or tugged into the sun. And now we exist in an era where even slooooow exit from the solar system is exceedingly improbable. That's a phase change.
I'd be happy to explore other types of phase change. This one is absolute (dropping out was possible and then it became impossible). Others don't have to be (dropping out was fast, and then it became slow). But even those models will claim that what happened to Minnesota, U-Chicago, Army, Yale and so many others is irrelevant to the modern versions of ND/Michigan/OSU/Alabama/Texas et al.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 06:25:43 PM by Anonymous Coward »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #270 on: March 29, 2018, 07:31:52 PM »
I accept that "a helmet falling out" is theoretically possible and could take a loooong time. I also accept that the "they just took a prescribed time to fall out" theory can explain what happened to Minnesota/U-Chicago et al.
However, that theory does not explain why many helmets were lost in the 5 decades before 1970 but zero helmets have been lost in the 5 decades since 1970. That implies a phase change. So I think whatever our best model is, it must account for this phase change.
I'll accept the "phase change theory" and submit some possible reasons for the change:
  • The first reason is an obvious one but one that might be overlooked if not stated.  Over time starting from the beginning of cfb the "helmets" inherently tend to become more entrenched simply because they have more history of being "helmets".  If a team, lets say Yale, was the hands down indisputable best team in CFB for the first 10 years of the game (1869-1878) that could have been easily overcome by a team being the hands down indisputable best team for 15 years from 1879-1893 but each time this recurs it takes longer.  
  • Television, and then the advent of cable and the lawsuit that ended the limitation of the televising of games:  If we think of a pre-TV era it was difficult, for example, for a Minnesota alum to keep up with Minnesota football unless they lived reasonably close to Minneapolis.  They could get a box score from the newspaper or perhaps listen to a game on the radio but they couldn't see a game without travelling back to Minneapolis.  Due to NCAA limitations on televised games this restriction lasted into the 1980's and even after the NCAA lost at SCOTUS (1984) it still took a little while for the change to take effect.  Today a Michigan fan can keep up with their team (due to the internet) and can probably watch all of their games regardless of where they live.  This allowed fanbases to nationalize more readily.  The teams that had the largest fanbases in 1984 were generally the same "helmets" from 1970 and all of them grew national fanbases that will take decades to fully erode.  

Above, @ELA pointed out that despite fading, all the helmets are still helmets.  I think there are two issues.  One is that we have to define "fading".  I said earlier that helmet status is easier to maintain than it is to attain.  All a team really needs to do to maintain helmet status, IMHO, is to be a serious contender once in a while.  They don't actually have to win NC's or even necessarily conference titles, they simply need to be close enough to the running to rejuvenate the fanbase and keep their brand in the news.  Failing to win an NC for ~50 years doesn't knock a team out of being a helmet so long as they periodically contend for NC's (see Michigan, 1948-1996).  

TyphonInc

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #271 on: March 29, 2018, 07:45:28 PM »
Inside the Big Ten's $1.7 billion sports empire; Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, others ranked for revenue, spending, more

http://www.cleveland.com/expo/erry-2018/03/a9ad5f0d13/big_tens_16_billion_sports_emp.html
I love these numbers. Just reinforces The OSU and UM are the big dogs (both at 185 Million.) Not sure what I found more surprising that Wisconsin was 4th nipping on PSU's heels (143 and 144 million respectively.) Or Nebraska so low (7th at 120 Million) With Minnesota nipping at their heels (116 million.)

FearlessF

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #272 on: March 29, 2018, 07:53:44 PM »
I don't think it will ever work like that.  The biggest games create more revenue when more people watch.  Ie, the advertising revenue for an audience of millions is more than the PPV revenue for a smaller audience.  I almost always watch the NC, but I wouldn't pay $100 to watch it unless Ohio State was in it.  
I think where they will get us for PPV is for smaller games that only us fanatics care about.  Ie, when Nebraska plays some MAC school they might be able to charge you money to watch it because they can't get a huge audience even if it is free.  
I agree.  And understand this is why the content providers (networks) don't want to give up control.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #273 on: March 29, 2018, 07:54:58 PM »
I love these numbers. Just reinforces The OSU and UM are the big dogs (both at 185 Million.) Not sure what I found more surprising that Wisconsin was 4th nipping on PSU's heels (143 and 144 million respectively.) Or Nebraska so low (7th at 120 Million) With Minnesota nipping at their heels (116 million.)
I assume Nebraska will make a substantial jump.  This will be the first year with a full Big Ten Network share.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Anonymous Coward

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #274 on: March 29, 2018, 08:01:28 PM »
Medina:

(I think) I'm down with truly all of that. 

Something I think is interesting: we often say that Minnesota was once a fully entrenched helmet and after "a long time" they lost it. But "a long time" doesn't really mean anything without a point of comparison. Absent cataclysm, the length of time it took for a school like Minnesota to lose its status is a flash in the pan compared to what it'll take for a modern helmet to lose its status now.

FearlessF

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #275 on: March 29, 2018, 08:10:33 PM »
This surprises me..............

Subsidy from school or student fees:

Rutgers       $33,087,478
Minnesota   $14,817,134
Maryland     $14,473,659
Illinois         $3,281,700
Wisconsin    $2,843,000
Indiana        $2,569,044
Michigan St.   $901,057
Iowa              $650,000
Michigan         $280,647

Purdue, Nebraska, Penn St., & Ohio St.           $0

noted that Michigan gave much more than their amount back - so why take it?

"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

TyphonInc

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #276 on: March 29, 2018, 10:35:46 PM »
I was thinking of applying an attendance threshold as to what schools should remain as P5 representatives.

What would be a good number? Start at 50K and go from there? There are some P5 schools with stadiums that offer less capacity than that. 45K maybe?

Much of the SEC and B1G are safe in that zone. The ACC and PAC could be in trouble - particularly the former.
There is a current one, but it's not enforced. 30k Stadium, and 17k average attendence.
If you place it at 50k then you lose from the B1G:
Illinois: 45,644 (75 percent)
Rutgers: 44,804 (85 percent)
Minnesota: 43,814 (83 percent)
Indiana: 43,027 (82 percent)
Maryland: 39,615 (76 percent)
Northwestern: 34,798 (74 percent)
Purdue: 34,798 (60 percent)

847badgerfan

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #277 on: March 29, 2018, 10:47:25 PM »
I do think that attendance is not a perfect measure though.

Rutgers had OSU show up last year. 

Minnie had UNL and UW show up last year.

NU had Iowa and PSU show up last year.

Those home games turn into big numbers for the "home" team. I've seen what OSU fans can do to Indiana games. I've seen what Wisconsin fans can do to NU games. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #278 on: March 30, 2018, 01:24:20 AM »
I cited it being a caste system because you'd be telling each program where it is on the totem pole and relegating them to that level indefinitely.  

Okay, Iowa, you're not a helmet, so you don't get all these extra, sexy games against helmet teams for the next 2 decades, sorry.  And without all of those opportunities, you won't have nearly as many big wins vs helmets as you might have, given an equal schedule as the sexy helmet programs get.  Even if you become great, you'll fatten up on lesser programs year after year and only get to play big-boy teams occasionally.  
Sorry!!!



It's just such a stark contrast to what I'm aiming for - the least possible amount of differentiation in terms of things out of each school's control.  We have conferences of varying size - let's get them all the same size.  We have wildly imbalanced schedules - let's balance them out.  We have beauty contests like preseason polls, helmet teams, and non-champs vs champs - let's get rid of these.  We can only do this 'cleaning up' if all teams start each season with equal access to the national championship.  Not an equal likelihood, but equal access.  The P5 tearing away from the G5 is step one.  The continuation is the ACC/Big XII battle to the death/combining.  After that, scheduling equalities - both in terms of strength of schedule as well as a balance of home/away games - for everyone.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #279 on: March 30, 2018, 03:27:52 AM »
There is a current one, but it's not enforced. 30k Stadium, and 17k average attendence.
I thought that was the FBS minimum, not P5 or conference minimum. 

 

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