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Topic: Our Top Ten

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Cincydawg

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #42 on: July 13, 2023, 03:15:44 PM »
I watched the PSU-OSU game, I thought PSU was "almost" competitive, they were in it for three quarters?  OSU's talent prevailed.  THey might be 11-2 again.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #43 on: July 13, 2023, 03:29:33 PM »
Here is a realistic possibility that will drive Michigan fans nuts:

If the B1G-E "big three" each win the home games amongst each other and each win all their other league games the standings heading into the final weekend will be:

  • 8-0 Ohio State, at Michigan
  • 7-1 Michigan (loss at PSU), vs tOSU
  • 7-1 Penn State (loss at tOSU), at MSU

Penn State visits MSU on Black Friday. Well, not really, the game is actually at Ford Field.

If Penn State wins that would likely eliminate Michigan from B1GCG contention. That is because at that point a Michigan win over tOSU would create a three-way tie between the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions.

The tiebreakers are:
  • H2H2H, would be tied at 1-1
  • Divisional record, would be tied at 5-1
  • Record against the next best team(s) in the division, would be tied at each 1-0 against each
  • Record against all common conference opponents, would be tied at 5-1
  • Cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents

That fifth step would likely be decisive. Michigan's problem is that their three are Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska while Ohio State's are Minnesota, Purdue, and Wisconsin so unless Nebraska finishes with a better record than Wisconsin, the Wolverines can't win that tie.


In that case THE GAME could be meaningless to the B1GCG.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2023, 03:39:26 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #44 on: July 13, 2023, 03:37:49 PM »
In that case THE GAME could be meaningless to the B1GCG.
In that case, if you are Ryan Day, do you rest your starters for THE GAME?

Realistically he won't. He can't for at least four reasons:
  • Ohio State fans would absolutely melt down, and
  • CFB still uses voters to decide admission to the CFP and there is no guarantee that those voters wouldn't punish him for taking a week off, and
  • If you rest your starters and effectively concede THE GAME then ALSO lose the BIGCG you become an 11-2 non-Champion with basically no shot at the CFP because the other two co-champions from your division would be 11-1.
  • Seeding matters. Last year ended up weird because #1 got tOSU while #2 got TCU and most people would agree that #1's assignment was tougher but that isn't necessarily going to be the case.


Cincydawg

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #45 on: July 13, 2023, 03:41:36 PM »
No, he wouldn't do that of course.  I do wonder what sorts of similar things could happen with the 12 GPO.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #46 on: July 13, 2023, 04:21:56 PM »
No, he wouldn't do that of course.  I do wonder what sorts of similar things could happen with the 12 GPO.
I'd say probably not for a couple reasons:
  • The break between the regular season and the playoff (at least if you get a bye) is longer in CFB than it is in the NFL.  Thus, resting starters makes less sense because if you get a bye they get a rest anyway so you are better off to play for the bye.  
  • The 12-teams in the new playoff will be in tiers: 1) top-4 get a bye in the first round.  2) middle-4 host a first round game.  3) bottom-4 travel in the first round.  

Those tiers are a big motivation to keep playing to win even after you have effectively locked up a spot.  

Consider Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State in the hypothetical above but applied to last year:
Heading into the final weekend the CFP rankings were:
  • Georgia, GaTech
  • Ohio State, vs #3 M
  • Michigan, @ #2 tOSU
  • TCU, vs ISU
  • LSU, @ aTm
  • USC, vs #15 ND
  • Bama, vs Auburn
  • Clemson, vs USCe
  • Oregon, @ #21 OrSU
  • Tennessee, @ Vandy
  • Penn State, vs MSU
  • KSU, vs Kansas
  • Washington, @WSU
  • Utah, @ Colorado
  • Notre Dame, @ #6 USC
  • FSU, vs UF
  • UNC, vs NCST
  • UCLA, @ Cal
  • Tulane
  • Ole Miss
  • OrSU, vs #9 Oregon
  • UCF
  • Texas
  • Cincy
  • Louisville
If we assume the same except applied to this year's tOSU/PSU/M H/A schedule and a Penn State win over Michigan in Happy Valley then:
  • #2 Ohio State stays at #2
  • #3 Michigan with a loss to PSU drops to roughly #4/5.  
  • #11 Penn State with a win over Michigan improves to roughly #4/5.  
All three are essentially playoff locks heading into the final weekend but there is still a lot at stake:
#2 Ohio State, 11-0/8-0:
  • Best case is to beat M and win B1GCG, finish 13-0/9-0 and no worse than #2, get a bye.  
  • Upper middle case (for CFP purposes) is to lose to M, get into B1GCG anyway, win that, finish 12-1/8-1 and B1G Champions, probably get a bye (as league champ)
  • Lower middle case (for CFP purposes) is to beat M but lose B1GCG, finish 12-1/9-0 and NOT B1G Champions, probably host a first round game.  
  • Worst case is to lose to M, get into B1GCG anyway, lose that, finish 11-2/8-1 and NOT B1G Champions, probably travel for first round game.  

#3 Michigan, 10-1/7-1:
They would obviously be a CFP lock because even with a loss to tOSU they'd finish 10-2 with the two losses being to highly ranked and CFP-bound teams.  However, even if they were locked out of the B1GCG by the tiebreaker before THE GAME ever got started, they'd still get a lot out of winning it.  Apart from regional pride/bragging rights/recruiting advantages, a win also gets them to 11-1/8-1 and probably hosting a first round game where a loss drops them to 10-2/7-2 and probably travelling for their first round game.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #47 on: July 13, 2023, 04:28:50 PM »
I was musing about the UGA-Tech contest, as another example.  Would Smart sit his one's knowing his two's could win that game?  Nope, never.  Wouldn't happen.

He's going to sub a lot, as usual of course, and into the late third most starters probably are cheering and directing the band.  Even your one's need "practice".

FearlessF

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #48 on: July 14, 2023, 09:36:37 AM »
yup, Switzer and Osborne would always start the ones

Osborne would put in the 2nd team after up by 28

even up 35 or 42 at the half the starters would play the first series in the 3rd quarter
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #49 on: July 14, 2023, 10:03:30 AM »
I was musing about the UGA-Tech contest, as another example.  Would Smart sit his one's knowing his two's could win that game?  Nope, never.  Wouldn't happen.

He's going to sub a lot, as usual of course, and into the late third most starters probably are cheering and directing the band.  Even your one's need "practice".
I do think, however that UGA/Tech might be treated differently than tOSU/M for a number of reasons.

I think it just isn't as "big" to the fans as tOSU/M in part because it hasn't been a league game for decades. It has the same regional rivalry and recruiting impact, but it has no impact on league titles. That is VERY different for tOSU/M who have played numerous times for league titles and, more recently, for Divisional titles.

Another factor related to it being an OOC game is that since it has no bearing on league titles it is simply less important especially in view of the upcoming 12-team CFP which will reward league Champions.

Finally, it simply hasn't been as competitive historically. Per Stassen, UGA leads the series 60-40-5. If Georgia had won around three out of five for the entire history that would be pretty competitive but that isn't how it played out. Instead, Georgia has dominated most of the time with Tech's 40 wins coming in spurts:
  • 5 straight from 1904-1909
  • 5-1-1 from 1914-1928
  • 2-1-2 from 1935-1939
  • 11-3 from 1943-1956
  • 3-0 from 1961-1963
Etc. My point is that the rivalry hasn't competitive in most five or 10 year ranges.


Cincydawg

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #50 on: July 14, 2023, 10:22:41 AM »
Yeah, it's not comparable to The Game, except the part about resting your ones, it's more a case for that than The Game.  I've mentioned before I would prefer to drop them from the schedule especially if we have a 9 game conference slate.  It's like playing Charleston Southern or something.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #51 on: July 14, 2023, 10:32:23 AM »
Yeah, it's not comparable to The Game, except the part about resting your ones, it's more a case for that than The Game.  I've mentioned before I would prefer to drop them from the schedule especially if we have a 9 game conference slate.  It's like playing Charleston Southern or something.
It is . . . except that Charleston Southern wouldn't have a history of being competitive and those occasional spurts.

Per Stassen, the series was even at 28-28-5 up through 1971. In the last 50 years things have shifted decisively in Georgia’s favor, 38-12 from 1972-2022 (no game in 2020).

Note:
In my previous post I shorted UGA a win because I didn't notice that Stassen hasn't updated to include 2022.

Cincydawg

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #52 on: July 14, 2023, 10:38:27 AM »
Yeah, Tech on occasion has had a decent to good team in the past, but even that has been a while now.  The common result is a blow out.  When Tech wins, it's barely.  Tech has not won in Atlanta since 1999 oddly enough.  It's boring, to me.


96November 24, 2001Atlanta# (Number)19 Georgia31–17
97November 30, 2002Athens# (Number)5 Georgia51–7
98November 29, 2003Atlanta# (Number)5 Georgia34–17
99November 27, 2004Athens# (Number)8 Georgia19–13
100November 26, 2005Atlanta# (Number)13 Georgia14–7
101November 25, 2006AthensGeorgia15–12
102November 24, 2007Atlanta# (Number)6 Georgia31–17
103November 29, 2008Athens# (Number)18 Georgia Tech45–42
104November 28, 2009AtlantaGeorgia30–24
105November 27, 2010AthensGeorgia42–34
106November 26, 2011Atlanta# (Number)13 Georgia31–17
107November 24, 2012Athens# (Number)3 Georgia42–10
108November 30, 2013AtlantaGeorgia41–342OT
109November 29, 2014Athens# (Number)16 Georgia Tech30–24OT
110November 28, 2015AtlantaGeorgia13–7
111November 26, 2016AthensGeorgia Tech28–27
112November 25, 2017Atlanta# (Number)7 Georgia38–7
113November 24, 2018Athens# (Number)5 Georgia45–21
114November 30, 2019Atlanta# (Number)4 Georgia52–7
115November 27, 2021Atlanta# (Number)1 Georgia45–0
116November 26, 2022Athens# (Number)1 Georgia37–14
Series: Georgia leads 70–41–5[1]


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #53 on: July 14, 2023, 10:58:40 AM »
Yeah, Tech on occasion has had a decent to good team in the past, but even that has been a while now.  The common result is a blow out.  When Tech wins, it's barely.  Tech has not won in Atlanta since 1999 oddly enough.  It's boring, to me.
Interesting:
From 2001-2019:
  • Ohio State led Michigan 17-2
  • Georgia led Tech 16-3
So for the two full decades from 2001 through 2020 (neither UGA/Tech nor tOSU/M was played in 2020), Ohio State was MORE dominant over Michigan than Georgia was over Tech.

It NEVER got boring to me, ever. NOT. EVEN. CLOSE.

Honestly, if Ohio State had won the last two then won 31 more in a row to go 48-2 over 50 games from 2001-2051, it STILL wouldn't have been boring to me. 

FearlessF

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #54 on: July 14, 2023, 11:06:29 AM »
tech doesn't generate the level of hate as Michigan
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Our Top Ten
« Reply #55 on: July 14, 2023, 11:29:46 AM »
Michigan is a great and historic football program.
But they have some glaring holes.
The 2-17 vs OSU is gross.  I know UM ruled the 90s, but that's almost 20 years of bitch-hood.  It's almost as if it's a statistical anomaly that had to happen to someone, and it just happened to be Michigan.  No excuse for that.
.
But the larger hole in their resume is the lack of natties.  From 1950-now, all they have is 1997.  73 years.  1 NC.  For a universal blueblood on anyone's list....1 NC.  Schembechler was an ultimate choke-job artist in the Rose Bowl.  
.
And then, they remarkably boat race OSU 2 years in a row and.....get embarrassed on the biggest stage both years.  UGA was their daddy and they gave up like 50 points to a team that wasn't P5 when the current players were like 10 years old.  
I guess what I'm saying is that from the 19th century to WWII, those UM teams did some HEAVY lifting for the Wolverines to still be held in high esteem.
.
They've basically done jack squat in the past 73 years.
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