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well, I hope so.
Or else some folks are overvaluing this metric like returning QBs

well, I hope so.
Or else some folks are overvaluing this metric like returning QBs

I could argue every metric is over valued in isolation, but the progs obviously try and construct some kind of composite and generally get about the same final "polls" preseason as everyone else unless they throw in an outlier for clicks.  The top 3 preseason nearly always end up very good, top ten or better.

College Football Summer School: Returning Production Notes (thelines.com)

[color=var(--wp--preset--color--thelines-white-dark-pri)]NC State Wolfpack (82%)[/color]
Win total: over 6.5 (-140) FPI: 9.7 (26th) The two biggest losses to NC State’s roster this past offseason were tackle Ikem Ekwonu and leading receiver Emeka Emezie. Virtually everyone else returns, including all three interior offensive linemen. They also return quarterback Devin Leary, who threw for over 3,400 yards in 2021. Most importantly, they return everyone on defense with zero newcomers– a defense that ranked 15th in points per drive allowed and first in points per drive allowed on long drives.

• Forecast: Two words: Devin Leary. Couple him with most of his weapons from last year and a terrific defense, and you have a good looking team for 2022. This is the kind of returning production setup you want to see.

[color=var(--wp--preset--color--thelines-white-dark-pri)]Fresno State Bulldogs (78%)[/color]
Win total: over 8 (-145) FPI: -1.1 (69th) Fresno State returns 78% of their player production and zero coaching staff. The Bulldogs finished off their third ten-win season since 2017 and retained quarterback Jake Haener, despite him initially exploring the transfer portal. However, don’t be fooled by their coaching turnover– successful coach Jeff Tedford returns to Fresno after resigning in 2019 for health reasons. He was responsible for their last two 10-win seasons.

• Forecast: QBs weigh so heavily in returning production because the ball hits their hands every offensive play. However, I also weigh the return of Haener more than in just numbers. He’s a terrific QB and landed favorably on Adam Hale’s quarterback tiers list. The Bulldogs could be returning 50% of production and I’d still be pretty excited for them this year.