I covered the B1G separately. The B1G and the SEC are more-or-less guaranteed to get the top two seeds in the CFP so I'll start here with the SEC, the contenders:
5-1 Texas (lost to UGA):
- vs 1-6 Kentucky this week
- at 5-1 aTm next week
5-1 aTm (lost to USCe):
- at 1-5 Auburn this week
- vs 5-1 Texas next week
6-2 Georgia (done with SEC play) (lost to Bama and OleMiss):
- vs UMASS this week
- vs GaTech next week
5-2 Tennessee (lost to Arky and UGA):
- vs UTEP this week
- at 3-3 Vandy next week
4-2 Alabama (lost to Vandy and TN):
- at 1-5 Oklahoma this week
- vs 1-5 Auburn next week
4-2 Ole Miss (lost to KY and LSU):
- at 3-4 Florida this week
- vs 0-6 MissSt next week
The rest of the league have at least three losses and are thus eliminated because:
- Georgia is done at 6-2, and
- The Texas/aTm winner can finish no worse than 6-2
I'm getting tiebreakers here from
an article that the Worldwide Leader did on tiebreakers for the various conferences. They seem to have gotten the B1G tiebreakers right so I'm just assuming that they got the rest of them right as well. If I am missing something that one of our SEC posters (
@Cincydawg ,
@OrangeAfroMan ,
@jgvol ,
@rolltidefan , etc) has any corrections or input, please provide it.
First things first, there WILL BE a 2-loss team in the SECCG because there are only two 1-loss teams left and they play each other on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
Texas and aTm should win their games this weekend (vs Kentucky and at Auburn respectively). Assuming that they do, the winner of the Texas/aTm game is in as the #1 seed as the only 7-1 team. The loser drops into a tie with Georgia and any of the rest of the two-loss teams that win out. None of them play each other so that could be just Georgia or all four (five including the TX/aTm loser) or anything in between.
In a two-team tie the first tiebreaker is H2H so, for example, if Texas were to lose to aTm and finish tied with ONLY Georgia, the Dawgs would go because they beat the Longhorns.
The next tiebreaker is winning percentage against common SEC opponents which is all over the map depending on which two teams we are talking about.
Next, similar to the B1G, is record against the best common SEC opponent, then the next, etc.
Then, similar to the B1G again, is SoS defined as combined conference win % of conference opponents. I have no idea how that shakes out and I'm not going to go figure it out but it is probably posted somewhere, maybe on an SEC board?
The penultimate two-team tiebreaker is relative scoring margin against all conference opponents. But it says "from SportSource Analytics" so I don't *THINK* this is simply Points For minus Points Against. I *THINK* that "relative" indicates that you get more credit for playing a better schedule. I'm not sure how this works exactly.
The final two-team tiebreaker is "random draw".
In the (VERY likely) event of a tie involving three or more teams the tiebreakers are:
- H2H but only if all tied teams are common opponents (they aren't) or if one defeated each of the others. Up to here, I think this is identical to the B1G rule. Then the SEC adds a caveat that if one of the tied teams lost to all of the others, that team is eliminated.
- Record against all common conference opponents.
- Record against best SEC opponent, then next, etc.
- SoS, same as above, record of SEC opponents.
- Higher relative scoring margin against all conference opponents (from SportSource Analytics).
- Random Draw
There is a LOT to unpack there so I honestly have no idea how it will shake out.
ACC:
The ACC is considerably simpler than the SEC because there are only three contenders. Clemson is 7-1 and done with ACC play. SMU is 6-0 and Miami is 5-1. Since SMU can do no worse than 6-2 and Clemson is 7-1, the rest of the league is eliminated because they all have 3+ losses. So, the contenders:
6-0 SMU:
- at 3-3 Virginia this weekend
- vs 1-5 California next weekend
7-1 Clemson (done with ACC Play) (lost to Louisville):
- vs The Citadel this weekend
- vs USCe next weeend
5-1 Miami (lost to GaTech):
- vs 2-4 Wake this weekend
- at 4-3 Cuse next weekend
SMU should win out and if they do then their CG opponent will be either Clemson or Miami. Miami would win a two-team tie with Clemson because Miami beat Louisville and Clemson didn't play GaTech (it is record against common opponents). Ie, if all three win out, the ACCCG is SMU vs Miami. I think that Clemson would also lose a two-way tie with SMU (because they beat Louisville as well) so basically Clemson needs either:
- Miami to lose once, or
- SMU to lose twice.
B12:
This one might be even messier than the SEC. BYU and Colorado are both 6-1 but the B12 plays nine league games so both could theoretically finish 6-3. Consequently, those two plus the two-loss teams (ASU and ISU) plus the three-loss teams (Baylor, KSU, TCU, TxTech, WVU) are all mathematically in the race.
As a practical matter and to keep this from being an even longer post, I don't think that a 3-loss team is going to make the B12CG so it is between:
6-1 BYU:
- at 5-2 ASU this weekend
- vs 3-4 Houston next weekend
6-1 Colorado:
- at 3-4 Kansas this weekend
- vs 0-7 OkSU next weekend
5-2 ASU (where is SDF?):
- vs 6-1 BYU this weekend
- at 2-5 Zona next weekend
5-2 Iowa State:
- at 1-6 Utah this weekend
- vs 4-3 KSU next weekend
BYU and Colorado obviously control their own destiny but if my understanding of the tiebreakers is correct, ASU does as well. It looks like ISU needs help and the others are practically though not mathematically eliminated.
