Pac12 Tiebreaker:
NOTE: If someone could please google the tiebreaker and see if you get what I got, that would be great, thank you.
As stated above, USC has already clinched one spot. The other spot is Oregon's to lose. They are 7-1 with Washington and Utah trailing them at 6-2. Thus:
- If Oregon wins (@OrSU) there is no need for tiebreakers, they face USC in the PACCG.
- If Oregon (@OrSU), Utah (@Colorado), and Washington (@WSU) all lose there is no need for tiebreakers, Oregon faces USC in the PACCG.
However, if Oregon loses AND either Utah or Washington or both win, then there will be a tie. Here are the three potential ties:
- Oregon and Utah tie at 6-2: Oregon faces USC in the PACCG based on H2H win over Utah.
- Oregon and Washington tie at 6-2: Washington faces USC in the PACCG based on H2H win over Oregon.
- Oregon, Utah, and Washington all tie at 6-2: See below:
My understanding of what is posted on the PAC12 website is that multi-team tiebreakers are as follows:
First use H2H...2H but ONLY if all teams have played each other. They haven't because Utah and Washington do not play, thus move on.
Second use Win percentage among all common conference opponents. Here is what I get.
Note, this tie only happens if Oregon loses to OrSU, Utah beats Colorado, and Washington beats WSU so I have assumed those results above.
Third, record against the highest placed common opponent in the standings, then the next, etc. Here is where it starts to get interesting. Their best common opponents right now are OrSU and UCLA (both 5-3). As noted above, in order for this tie to happen OrSU has to beat Oregon and thus finish 6-3. If UCLA also wins (@CAL) then this step does not help because all three tied teams (Ore, Utah, UW) would be 1-1 against the common 6-3 opponents. However, if UCLA loses at Cal then Oregon State is the only 6-3 common opponent. Oregon is eliminated based on losing to them. Then it says "If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied."
So this third step is non-decisive if UCLA wins at Cal but if UCLA loses at Cal this step eliminates the Ducks and the Utes and Huskies revert to the two-team procedure (see below).
Fourth is combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule). In order to get to this step all of the following would have to happen:
- OrSU beats Oregon
- Utah beats Colorado
- Washington beats WSU
- UCLA beats Cal
Thus, I have assumed all of the above in making this chart of their conference opponents' conference wins:
So Washington would be clearly out and Oregon can't catch Utah because the only PAC game that I haven't already assumed a winner for is ASU@Zona but Utah played both of them so they'd either win this 37-36 over Oregon (if ASU wins) or they'd win it 38-37 (if Zona wins). Thus, in a three way tie where UCLA beats Cal, Utah faces USC in the PAC12CG.
Now back to the two-team tiebreaker in the event that UCLA loses at Cal. Note from step-3 above that if UCLA loses at Cal then Oregon is eliminated leaving Utah and Washington to revert to the two-team tiebreaker:
- H2H which doesn't help here since UW and Utah do not play this year.
- Win % against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings. In this case that would be Oregon so Washington would face USC in the PAC12CG.
Summary:
- If Oregon wins (@OrSU) they face USC in the PAC12CG. (Oregon #2 outright)
- If Oregon, Washington, and Utah all lose, Oregon faces USC in the PAC12CG. (Oregon #2 outright)
- If Oregon and Washington both lose and Utah wins, Oregon faces USC in the PAC12CG. (Oregon over Utah based on H2H)
- If Oregon and Utah both lose and Washington wins, Washington faces USC in the PAC12CG. (Washington over Oregon based on H2H)
- If Oregon loses while Utah and Washington both win AND UCLA beats Cal, Utah faces USC in the PAC12CG. (Utah wins multi-team tiebreaker #4, SoS)
- If Oregon loses while Utah and Washington both win AND UCLA loses to Cal, Washington faces USC in the PAC12CG. (Oregon eliminated based on record against OrSU, Washington over Utah based on two-team tiebreaker #2, record against Oregon)
