Teams with 1st Loss Week 9:
Oklahoma
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 9:
Georgia State
Utah
Oregon State
North Carolina
UNLV
Teams with 1st Win Week 9:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)
Week 8: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 11.1% (1 of 9)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
7: Seven conference champs (all except the MAC, American, and Big 12)
We lost the possibility of an undefeated Big 12 champ this week with the loss of Oklahoma to Kansas.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-In the BCS era, we had two times when there were 3 teams undefeated in AQ conferences for a 2 team championship (leaving out Auburn and Cincinnati). In the CFP 4 team era, we will not see any repeat. With Oklahoma losing, we cannot have more than 4 undefeated power 5 champs.
-Our lone winless team had too close to a repeat of the previous week and narrowly lost a game they were favored in. FBS transition Sam Houston State has been very close, but still looking for its first win. It will likely come this next week.
-The Sun Belt disappeared from all lists as their last two loss team Georgia State fell to Georgia Southern.
-Our biggest story of the week was out of the Big 12 with Oklahoma losing to Kansas. Both the Sooners and Texas still are likely to make the CFP bowls if they win out, but they do need to hope for some help from other conferences and any small notion of two teams in is gone. Texas likely needs a tad less as the win over Alabama will count on the resume (and a win in a rematch with Oklahoma will likely count more than Oklahoma beating Texas twice). Beyond the CFP prospective here, both team control their conference destiny still, but only if they win out. The conference's other three 1-loss teams (Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State) are alive still and all three still have games against either Texas or Oklahoma. Kansas, for their part, does have two conference losses and, as huge as the game was, still needs help.
-Just as quickly as North Carolina was rising in the ACC, it is falling back down. Back to back losses, leaves them with 2 losses. Beyond undefeated Florida State, Louisville is the only other team with fewer than 2 losses. They would probably need a decent bit to go right to get in the CFP, but, at this point, are the only other contender from the ACC and, save one game, have been playing really well. For conference standings only though, this week against Virginia Tech is huge. The winner of the game will be by themselves in 2nd place in the ACC and on track for the title game. Florida State will mathematically lock themselves into the game with a win this week.
-The PAC-12 lost two 1-loss teams this week in Utah and Oregon State. For the conference title that leaves Washington, Oregon, and USC as the top three in the standings and leaves only Washington and Oregon as likely CFP bowl contenders. USC and Oregon play this week. If the winner of that game loses another, we will have a 2 conference loss team make the championship which opens things back up for more teams. The conference beating up on each other has been a theme the past few years so let's see if that holds this year.
-Ohio State beating Wisconsin keeps the east the same and leaves the west opened up. Ohio State's three biggest games of the year, it has relied on its defense to limit the score and it's offense to do just enough (or just a bit more). While the east waits on the Penn State-Michigan game to see if this is a 2 or 3 way race, the Big Ten west has a 4 way tie on top among the 4 western most members of the conference.
-With Georgia beating Florida, the bulldogs are only a Missouri loss away from an effective two game lead. They play each other this week though and Mizzou would control the tie breaker with a win. The dynamics are similar in the west between Alabama and LSU (although Ole Miss could set-up a three way tie). Alabama and LSU also play this week in a huge SEC weekend. Should Alabama and Georgia both win, the championship will be all but set. Meanwhile, both Alabama and Georgia making the CFP bowls is still a possibility as long as neither lose (and Alabama were to beat Georgia in the championship). Could a 1-loss Georgia, who loses to Mizzou and doesn't make the SEC Championship, make it too? I think there are possibilities for it.
Group of 5 NY6 Bowl
-The Mountain West saw a close battle between 1-loss teams result in a Fresno State victory over UNLV. That leaves Air Force and Fresno State as the best bets for the Mountain West. For now, I rank it's chances best of any Group of 5 conference. Undefeated Air Force is certainly on top and a 1-loss Air Force or Fresno State would likely be high on the list at least.
-The American saw Tulane win by 2 over Rice to keep them as their best hope. How they win might also matter now though as the committee will likely care if the choice is a one-loss American or Mountain West team.
-The Sun Belt lost its last remaining 1-loss team with Georgia State losing to Georgia Southern. The conference is suffering from too much parity which is keeping a top team from emerging. With enough chaos elsewhere, they could get back in, but desperately need the chaos.
-Liberty won well enough over Western Kentucky this week, but I believe still needs a decent bit of chaos on their side. I think they probably need no 1-loss teams available (other than Toledo).
-The MAC saw its last 1-loss team in Toledo with a bye this week.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-We have 1 game between an undefeated and 1-loss team this week.
1-loss Missouri at Undefeated Georgia: Winner of this game sits atop the SEC East. Georgia is effectively locked in after this game. Mizzou could not afford another slip up, but would control their destiny if they win. Would be a huge shakeup in the SEC race with an upset.
LSU at 1-loss Alabama: Winner is atop the SEC West and most likely to be heading to Atlanta (although Alabama would be more sure fire with the win). The Crimson Tide are only a field goal favorite.
Texas A&M at 1-loss Ole Miss: Ole Miss is tied with LSU for 2nd right now in the SEC West and is very much competing for a NY6 spot. With Georgia on docket too though, they cannot afford many losses. They are 3 point favorites. Should they win and LSU beat Alabama, they will be in a three way tie atop the west with a win over LSU and a loss to Alabama.
Kennesaw State at winless Sam Houston: This isn't how Sam Houston wanted to get their first win as an FBS program, but this is likely their best chance yet this week.
Kansas State at 1-loss Texas: After instate rival took down Oklahoma, can Kansas State beat the other departing school? This game is huge for Big 12 implications. If Kansas State wins, they are ahead of Texas and have a tie breaker advantage. Texas winning keeps the Longhorns on pace for the Big 12 Championship. Texas is a 4 point favorite.
1-loss Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: The final Bedlam (at least for awhile). The stakes are very large in it. The winner will be one of the two most favored to make the Big 12 Championship and the loser will need a lot of help. Feels a shame they pushed this game up a bit this year.
Virginia Tech at 1-loss Louisville: The winner of this is in 2nd by themselves in the ACC and in control of their destiny for the title game. Much better for the ACC if Louisville wins this (given Virginia Tech's 4 losses), but would be huge season for either to make it this year. Louisville remains a dark horse CFP bowl possible team with a win.
Undefeated Washington at USC: If USC wins, we likely see Washington, Oregon, and USC all tied for 1st. For USC, it would straighten things after a few difficult weeks. The conference's best shot for the CFP is for Washington to keep winning though. A win here by Washington makes a Washington vs. Oregon rematch even more likely. Washington only a little over a field goal favorite.
Boise State at 1-loss Fresno State: A week after a huge win, Fresno State is only a small favorite vs. Boise State. It is very big for the Mountain West that Fresno keeps winning. If they lose, most the eggs are in the basket of Air Force.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 8
Florida State
Michigan
Ohio State
Air Force
Washington
Georgia
Liberty
(James Madison)
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 0, total: 11
Tulane
Toledo
Alabama
Mississippi
Texas
Missouri
Fresno State
Oregon
Louisville
Penn State
Oklahoma
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, total: 1
(Sam Houston)
