Yup, if this lasts long enough, really unusual things will happen, but PROBABLY "they" will change it over and over again in some search for "perfection".
In 2030, UGA plays Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech OOC. Imagine they lose all three and also one in conference, but are 7-1 in conference play and make the CG where they then win, and get a bye in the playoff, at 9-4. Then they win out and are "national champions" with four losses. Unlikely, but possible.
It is funny, when I read your listing of Georgia's OOC for 2030 my initial thought is "Wow, those are going to be HUGE games" and then I realize that with the new format . . . Those will not be huge games.
In theory UGA, Clemson, and Ohio State could all be top-5 but even if they are, with 12 spots and guarantees for league champions those games don't matter much. If Georgia loses to both tOSU and Clemson they would still control their own destiny to a first round bye so those games have effectively been relegated to tune-ups for the league games. The tune-up reference is apt because, if you think about it, UGA would be much better off losing to tOSU and Clemson than say Auburn and Florida. 10-2 with losses to tOSU and Clemson means a berth in the SECCG where they play for a first round bye. 10-2 with losses to Auburn and Florida likely means sitting out the SECCG and having to play an extra playoff game.
The scale of this change cannot be overstated. Last year's Texas/Bama game had a humongous impact on the NC race. There can be little doubt that Texas would have been left out in favor of undefeated FSU if they had gone 12-1 with an OOC win over UAB instead of SEC Champion Bama but with that win over SEC Champion Bama basically locked them in one spot ahead of Bama so the committee was stuck.
A great example of a season in which early OOC games had a HUMONGOUS impact was 2005:
- On September 10 #2 Texas beat #4 Ohio State in Columbus 25-22
- On October 15 #1 USC beat #9 Notre Dame in South Bend 34-31
Both games were EXTREMELY close. Ohio State had a six point lead (22-16) and got inside the Texas 30 Yard line with just over five minutes to go. They ended up missing a 50 yard FG that would have made it a two possession game and likely sealed it for the Buckeyes. USC beat Notre Dame on the infamous "Bush Push".
The pre-bowl rankings that year were:
- 12-0 USC (best wins were the aforementioned win over #5 Notre Dame and a blowout of #6 Oregon in Eugene)
- 12-0 Texas (best wins were the aforementioned win over #4 Ohio State and a blowout of #18 TxTech)
- 10-1 Penn State (lost to a mediocre (7-5) Michigan, best wins were at home over #4 tOSU and #21 Wisconsin)
- 9-2 Ohio State (losses were the aforementioned losses to #2 Tx and #3 PSU)
- 9-2 Notre Dame (losses were the aforementioned loss to #1 USC and at home to a sub-.500 MSU)
Wins by either Ohio State (vsTx) or Notre Dame (vsUSC) or both would have created a real mess:
Ohio State beats Texas:
USC is obviously #1 at 12-0 but PSU, Texas, and tOSU each have one loss. PSU has H2H over tOSU. tOSU has H2H over Tx. PSU probably gets it based on H2H but that ignores the fact that they have a MUCH worse loss.
Notre Dame beats USC:
Texas is obviously #1 at 12-0 but USC, Notre Dame, and Penn State each have one loss. ND has H2H over USC and PSU has a quality win over tOSU but those two teams also have bad losses to teams from Michigan while USC's loss is close and on the road to a very good ND.
Ohio State beats Texas AND Notre Dame beats USC:
Now we have a real mess. USC, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, and Notre Dame each finish with one loss. Technically Oregon finished with one loss as well but their loss was by about 1,000 points at home to USC so they are not a serious contender.
Ohio State (vsTx), Penn State (vstOSU), and Notre Dame (vsUSC) each have a H2H win in the group while Texas (@tOSU), Ohio State (@PSU), and USC (@ND) each have a H2H loss within the group. Note, however, that each of those games was close and won by the home team.
Those games mattered because the format was limited. In the new format:
- USC (Pac Champ), Texas (B12 Champ), PSU (B1G Champ), and Georgia (SEC Champ) would get the byes. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Auburn would host in the first round.
- The tOSU/Tx game was irrelevant.
- The USC/Notre Dame game was irrelevant.
