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Topic: ELA October 23 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** October 20, 2021, 10:52:40 PM »

Illinois Fighting Illini (1-3, 2-5) at #7 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-1, 5-1)

NOON - State College, PA - ABC

While the wins haven't exactly been there, this Illinois team looks exactly like you would expect a Bret Bielema team to loom. It involves him embarrassing himself, while his team runs the ball pretty well, and plays good defense. Since the blowout loss to Virginia, the Illini have played very good defense, allowing under 18 ppg. The problem is they've lost 3 of those games, the one win coming over Charlotte, because they have averaged just 12.5 ppg. The run game isn't the problem, with Illinois ranking 7th in the conference, both in terms of yards per game and yards per carry. They simply cannot pass the ball. Bielema's commitment to Brandon Peters, a program guy he didn't recruit, should show you just how bad the situation must be behind him. Granted, Penn State's quarterback situation isn't much better with Sean Clifford still out. The Nittany Lions blew a 17-3 lead against Iowa, once Clifford went out, the last time we saw them. It does not seem like he will be playing thise week, as he has not been practicing with the 1s. It's unclear how much of that is opponent driven, but it's also clear the other guys need those reps. Ty'Quan Roberson, with a game plan designed for him, might look a lot different than the guy we saw in Iowa City, but it's also clear that there is no game plan to use him with the way this offense is built. The Nittany Lions have tons of talent on the outside, but they are in the bottom five of the conference, both in per game and per carry, in running. So it's hard to simply pivot to a run focused quarterback. Will Levis would look really good in Happy Valley right now. But against the Nittany Lions' outstanding defense, I don't think Illinois' offense, with zero passing game will get anything going.

PENN STATE 28, ILLINOIS 3

Northwestern Wildcats (1-2, 3-3) at #6 Michigan Wolverines (3-0, 6-0)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - FOX

So are we primed for another Pat Firtzgerald October resurgence? As has been pointed out here many times, that has been Northwestern's M.O. in three of the last four non-pandemic seasons. In 2017 they upset Maryland on October 14 to get to 3-3, and then didn't lose again. The one difference is the only ranked team they played during their 8 game win streak was a 10-3 Michigan State team...at home...who they beat in triple overtime. They didn't play a road game against a team who won more than 4 games. Let's just summarize that an undefeated Michigan team on the road is a much stiffer test than anything that 2017 team faced. The Wolverines might not have to attempt a pass. They will, but they won't have to. The most surprising part about Northwestern's win last week wasn't the win, Rutgers is always Rutgers, but how they did it. A defense which had been getting absolutely shredded on the ground, giving up over 8 yards per carry in two Big Ten losses, held the Scarlet Knights to under 2 ypc. Rutgers doesn't have the best run game, but they aren't in the Big Ten basement either, and the Northwestern defense did better than the Michigan, Ohio State or Michigan State defenses did. I'm calling fluke. I think the Wolverines are going to absolutely bully the Wildcats up front. What prayer does Northwestern have? Big passing plays. Northwestern can't run the ball, and I don't see this being their get right game. But, even in losses, they've hit big plays through the air. Even with Hunter Johnson, who was benched, he was still hitting splash passes. But Ryan Hilinski adds a little bit of better accuracy, while still capable of the big plays. He completed 55% of his passes last week, which still isn't great, but hit three different receivers for 30+ yard plays. For the historians among us, that was sort of how Michigan State upset Michigan last year, against questionable cornerback play. I don't think it matters. Those corners look at least competent this year, even if they aren't a strength, and the defensive line, led by a healthy Aiden Hutchinson looks to have made 2020 a blip. I think Michigan will be able to consistently drop 7 and still get plenty of pressure on Hilinski.

MICHIGAN 38, NORTHWESTERN 10

Wisconsin Badgers (1-2, 3-3) at #25 Purdue Boilermakers (2-1, 4-2)

3:00 - West Lafayette, IN - BTN

I can't think of a worse follow up game for Purdue. They just come off a road upset of the #2 team in the nation (which apparently is their thing), ending their own 14 year ranking drought, which was the longest in the Power 5, and have to turn around and play a struggling Wisconsin team. You win? Fine, you should have. Depending on what upsets occur out there, you may even fall out of the polls with a win. You lose? Ah, same old Purdue, pull a big upset, and then regress. The last thing any Purdue fan feels towards Wisconsin is "should win." The Kyle Orton fumble game in 2004 has kicked off a 14 game winning streak in the series for Bucky, and only one game since then, a 17-9 game in 2017 was by one score. Nine of the games have been by 21+ points. The last time Purdue beat Wisconsin at home, was in 1997, Joe Tiller's first year, with true freshman Drew Brees serving as a backup to Billy Dicken. Much like those Joe Tiller teams, the explosive playmakers on offense get the press, but the defense is very underrated. Purdue has held all three Big Ten opponents to under 300 yards of total offense, ranking second in the conference with 280 ypg allowed. The one better? Wisconsin. By about 30 yards per game. As you might expect, being 2nd in total defense leads to Purdue being 2nd in scoring defense. Wisconsin being 1st, by a wide margin, has resulted in them being...fifth in scoring defense. Simply because they are on the field all the time, they take over in terrible position, and hell, some of those points they didn't even actually allow. The one Big Ten team to score on them was Michigan. They added a garbage touchdown late, but in getting out to a 31-10 lead, Michigan's six scoring drives covered an average of 31.5 yards. The longest started at their own 41. It's not even just a matter of turnovers. The offense simply isn't efficient. George Karlaftis has put himself firmly into the discussion as the best lineman in the conference, that it appeared Aidan Hutchinson was running away with. Wisconsin has to stay on schedule, and give Graham Mertz the chance to use play action. That Boilermaker front is better at getting after the quarterback than stopping the run, and Mertz' ails aren't fixed. He threw for 112 yards against Army last week, and completed just 4 passes for 54 yards to receivers. Purdue won't even pretend what they are going to try and do. Get the ball to David Bell. They proved last week, against a good Iowa defense, that they don't care if you know it's coming. Seeing tight end Payne Durham get involved again last week was nice, but I don't know how you finish with 15 yards on 5 receptions.

PURDUE 20, WISCONSIN 14

#5 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0, 5-1) at Indiana Hoosiers (0-3, 2-4)

7:30 - Bloomington, IN - ABC

It is a testament to how the feelings towards this football team in Bloomington have changed in the past decade, just how disappointing this season feels. Indiana has struggled to follow up their 2020 season, limping out to a 2-4 start. Those 4 losses are to four top 11 teams, who have a combined two losses, one being to one of the others (Penn State to Iowa). So here comes Ohio State. Perfect. Granted, life in the Big Ten East is never fun, but there were a confluence of other factors. I highly doubt when Indiana and Cincinnati agreed to a home and home back in 2014, with the Bearcats coming off a 4 loss, middling AAC season, the Hoosiers thought Cincinnati would be undefeated, ranked #2, boasting a road win at Notre Dame. It's a year where Michigan State, probably the 4th best team in the division, happens to be having their best season in six years. Getting Iowa, Purdue and Minnesota as your crossovers and missing Wisconsin, Nebraska, and (to an extent) Northwestern, is normally a trade you would take. Instead those look like the best three teams in the West. All of that is to say this is going to be the best 2-5 team in the country on Sunday morning, and with trips to Michigan, Purdue and Maryland, plus a home game against Minnesota, this, pretty decent, Indiana team is unlikely to go bowling. The defense is still playing well, top 20 in the nation in SP+. The problem is the offense was pretty clearly dependent on an available, and healthy Michael Penix. I said last week that the way he was playing, clearly nowhere near 100%, perhaps backup Jack Tuttle at 100% was the better option. I remain less sure of that now. He looked ok for three quarters, although he did throw a pick six. But once Indiana fell behind, and needed him, Checkdown Charlie was not helpful. Tuttle threw 52 passes for just 188 yards, just 3.6 ypa. Indiana struggled enough to run the ball, and although Penix's interceptions were a problem, the ability to bring the safeties in against Tuttle renders the running game nil. With the season ending gauntlet starting next week, I'm not sure how much Stroud we'll see. This could be 31-7 at halftime.

OHIO STATE 31, INDIANA 21

***GAME OF THE WEEK***

Maryland Terrapins (1-2, 4-2) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1, 4-2)

3:30 - Minneapolis, MN - espn2

I know it's a LOT to say if you just overlook that one Bowling Green loss, but if you just overlook that one Bowling Green loss, P.J. Fleck might be right back into the Big Ten Coach of the Year discussion. They have a respectable loss to Ohio State, a blowout over Colorado, and then a pair of wins over Nebraska, and Purdue, which looks more impressive than it did at the time. Tanner Morgan delivered big time against a Nebraska defense which had looked excellent since the opener, completing 83% of his passes, to give him a passer rating of 167.3 and a QBR of 84.5. All three were his best marks of the season. And then when they needed to put the hammer down, without their top two running backs, it was junior Bryce Williams, who saw action back in 2018, but had totaled just 27 carries for 39 yards (1.4 ypc) over the past three seasons, capping off a 127 yard day with a 56 yard game sealing touchdown run. Unless you thought that Minnesota was a CFP contender this year, which nobody did, all of their goals are still in front of them. They have 2 divisional wins, and control their own destiny towards reaching the Big Ten Championship Game. However, Maryland has an offense, when it's clicking, which can challenge the Gophers' defense unlike anything they've seen since Ohio State in the opener. That didn't go great. Were the Terps able to use the bye week to get things right again? Because over the past seven quarters the offense simply hasn't worked. Taulia Tagovailoa, who ended September in the discussion as the best quarterback in the conference, threw five interceptions against Iowa, and then turned around and threw another two, to go with 5 sacks, against Ohio State. Dontay Demus' injury threw a wrinkle in Maryland's plan. With two weeks to scheme around it, you would hope the passing game could work better. The other things I said needed to step up, did. The running backs played well, three splitting 27 carries for 119 yards; and the tight ends got more involved, with Chigoziem Okonkwo leading the team with 5 receptions for 56 yards. The problem is, the one thing that was clicking, Taulia to his receivers, was not. Tagovailoa completed the same number of passes to Ohio State defenders as he did to the remaining two of his Big Three (Jarrett and Jones). Maryland will push Minnesota to run with them, but that West Virginia win does not look nearly as good anymore, and I don't trust the Terps not to make key mistakes.

MINNESOTA 34, MARYLAND 26

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** October 21, 2021, 05:25:02 PM »

Noon games in

Cincydawg · « **Reply #2 on:** October 21, 2021, 10:22:04 PM »

CONFERENCE CALL

Big Ten - 6 (Nos. 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 25)
SEC - 6 (Nos. 1, 4, 12, 15, 17, 19)
ACC - 3 (Nos. 16, 18, 23)
Big 12 - 3 (Nos. 3, 8, 20)
American - 2 (Nos. 2, 21)
Pac-12 - 1 (No. 10)
Conference USA - 1 (No. 24)
Mountain West - 1 (No. 22)
Sun Belt - 1 (No. 14)
Independent - 1 (No. 13)

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** October 22, 2021, 03:49:04 PM »

Everything but GOTW in

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** October 22, 2021, 04:11:38 PM »

Everything in

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #5 on:** October 22, 2021, 04:16:18 PM »

Quote from: ELA on October 20, 2021, 10:52:40 PM

Wisconsin Badgers (1-2, 3-3) at #25 Purdue Boilermakers (2-1, 4-2)
3:00 - West Lafayette, IN - BTN
I can't think of a worse follow up game for Purdue. They just come off a road upset of the #2 team in the nation (which apparently is their thing), ending their own 14 year ranking drought, which was the longest in the Power 5, and have to turn around and play a struggling Wisconsin team. You win? Fine, you should have. Depending on what upsets occur out there, you may even fall out of the polls with a win. You lose? Ah, same old Purdue, pull a big upset, and then regress.
PURDUE 20, WISCONSIN 14

I didn't really think about it until you mentioned it here but this game really is a lose/lose for the Boilermakers. Exactly as you stated, a win just "proves" that Wisconsin sucks and thus is meaningless while a loss is a disaster.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #6 on:** October 22, 2021, 04:17:43 PM »

Quote from: ELA on October 20, 2021, 10:52:40 PM

***GAME OF THE WEEK***
Maryland Terrapins (1-2, 4-2) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1, 4-2)
3:30 - Minneapolis, MN - espn2
MINNESOTA 34, MARYLAND 26

What a difference a week makes. This GOTW wouldn't crack the top-5 if it were next weekend.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #7 on:** October 22, 2021, 04:24:12 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 22, 2021, 04:16:18 PM

I didn't really think about it until you mentioned it here but this game really is a lose/lose for the Boilermakers. Exactly as you stated, a win just "proves" that Wisconsin sucks and thus is meaningless while a loss is a disaster.

Normally I agree, but as a Purdue fan, this one seems like our white whale.

Even when we've been bad, which has been a lot over the past few years, we've taken down some teams we "shouldn't". But never Wisconsin. Even the years when we have a fighting chance, Wisconsin just comes in and steamrolls.

So this is one that at least from Purdue's side, a win is a hell of a win. And a loss will hurt.

Speaking of white whales, if the Wisconsin OL decided to start a band, "The White Whales" would be a hell of a name

FearlessF · « **Reply #8 on:** October 22, 2021, 10:27:03 PM »

game of the week???

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Topic: ELA October 23 Breakdown

ELA

ELA October 23 Breakdown

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Cincydawg

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FearlessF

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