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Topic: OT - D-Day, what if?

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2019, 04:16:21 PM »
One there one specific Joint Chief who stopped Kyoto?  He had gone there on his honeymoon or something?
I can't remember who, but I remember reading that exactly.  He went there on his honeymoon.  That saved that city. 

Incidentally, when people think of devastating bombings, they usually think of Hiroshima and Nagasaki first but the firebombing of Tokyo on the night of March 9/10, 1945 definitely killed more than the Nagasaki Atomic bombing, and may have killed more than the Hiroshima bombing. 

The US manufactured cluster bombs that were specifically designed to destroy Japanese paper houses and nearly obliterated almost every major Japanese city. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2019, 04:36:31 PM »
Yes, I took the question as what if the entire plan failed.

Hell, Ike at least thought it enough a possibility that he had a letter in his pocket for release in that event.
He did and it was possible, I just think that it was extremely unlikely. 

I think the most realistic possible cause of a catastrophic failure of D-Day would have been weather.  If a freak storm had sunk a significant number of landing craft and prevented flying thereby neutralizing the allies' massive advantage in aerial capability that could have resulted in an overall failure of the invasion. 

CWSooner

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2019, 04:56:11 PM »
The invasion was originally scheduled for 1 May.  Ike postponed it for a month in order to assemble more landing craft.  It was rescheduled for 5 June, and of course had already been pushed back a day (on the 4th) because of weather.  On 5 June, the British meteorologist on Ike's staff believed that there was a 24-hour window of acceptable weather starting late that night.  Ike said, "Go!" and the invasion went off on the 6th.

What if Ike had mistrusted the Brit and trusted his American meteorologist--who was not predicting acceptable weather--instead?  There was only about a 4-day window there in early June where moon and tide conditions were acceptable.  And the weather on 6 June was bad enough as it was to adversely affect the landings.  It got worse on the 7th and was pretty bad for the next couple of weeks.  The Mulberry artificial harbor off Omaha Beach was so badly damaged in a storm on 19 June that it could not be repaired.

Had it not been executed on 6 June, it would have been postponed into July.  It is possible that the deception operations--Fortitude North and Fortitude South--might have been compromised during the additional month.
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CWSooner

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2019, 05:05:54 PM »
Here's Ike's "landings have failed" letter:

"Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based upon the best information available. The troops, the air and the Navy did all that Bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt it is mine alone."

Ike had been briefed to expect something like 80% casualties among the paratroopers, which is why he visited some of them on the afternoon of 5 June.



Here he's talking to men of Easy Company, 502nd Parachute Infantry, 101st Airborne Division.
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MrNubbz

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2019, 09:55:22 PM »

Maybe with more success in the West, the Germans do a better job against the Soviets in the East.  And the war goes on into the summer of 1945.

And the atomic bombs are used on Berlin and whatever other German city was producing the most war materiel.  And we don't have 74 years of critics saying that we dropped the bombs on Japan because of racism.
Quite a few books indicate that during the BOB Hitler had been pulling men and material off of the eastern front for that western thrust.And Churchill wasn't at all on board with Overlord.That was until favorable results started trickling in
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CWSooner

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #19 on: June 05, 2019, 11:06:38 PM »
Quite a few books indicate that during the BOB Hitler had been pulling men and material off of the eastern front for that western thrust.And Churchill wasn't at all on board with Overlord.That was until favorable results started trickling in
So, I was reading that and wondering how Hitler could have been pulling men and material off the Eastern Front in late summer of 1940, during the Battle of Britain, since he hadn't invaded the USSR yet.
Then the light bulb illuminated over my head.;)
Churchill was an infantry combat veteran of WWI.  He resigned as First Lord of the Admiralty after his Galipoli brainchild turned into a disaster, and joined the army.

He feared the slaughter of the young men of Great Britain.  And he could't get the disaster of the Dieppe Raid out of his head.  He just didn't want his young men to have to attack the Germans head-on.
That's why Montgomery's plan for Operation Market-Garden was so appealing to him.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2019, 11:46:29 PM »
What bothers me about our military now is how detached we approach it.  Obviously, no one wants "boots on the ground" and risking unneeded deaths, but when you hear coverage, it bothers me that the cost of the war is so front and center.  
Who gives a damn about that?  
we're not the same country that transformed automotive assembly lines into tank-creation factories.  We consider war to be an inconvenience now.  That detachment is what doesn't sit well with me.  
It's still 20 year olds out there on the front lines.  It's still old men calling the shots, still politicians keeping their kids on the sidelines - same as always.  But the attitude we have as a whole is just problematic.
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2019, 06:50:51 AM »
One there one specific Joint Chief who stopped Kyoto?  He had gone there on his honeymoon or something?
It was cloudy that day over Kyoto, Nagasaki was secondary.

Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2019, 06:57:51 AM »
Even tiny French towns have a memorial to those who died in WW I (and II and Africa, but there are fewer names).  I've been in towns of 1000 people and seen the monuments with 80 names on it.  The French, and British, had long memories of WW I, and did not want a repeat.  This heavily influenced French strategy in WW II, they wanted to:

1.  Move the war into Belgium.
2.  Be on the defensive.
3.  Let the Germans do mass attacks and get mowed down.
4.  Hunker behind fortifications so they could hold the actual border with fewer troops (Maginot).

The French lost a generation of men in WW I, and they were suffering to have enough to fight in WW II even though they had more men, tanks, planes, etc. than the Germans.  When Germany attacked Poland, the French made a desultory foray into Germany and found little resistance and retreated back into the Maginot Line.  When the Germans attacked in May 1940, they rushed into Belgium to reach their defensive lines (along a river in general) and the Germans cut them off at the pivot point.  The French in theory could have attacked back south and cut off the German advance, but they simply did not have an attack mentality or command structure or mobility.  The British made an attack at Arras and have Rommel quite the fright, but the attack was uncoordinated and failed.

The worst outcome at D-Day I had not considered was worsening weather, as someone above noted.  It was bad anyway, and later in June a terrible storm hit and really set back landing supplies (destroyed one Mulberry).

The 4th ID that landed at Utah had a fairly easy go of it though, it's hard to see how that would have failed completely unless weather was so bad they couldn't land.

But that landing zone was deep in bocage country.  The Normans in that area divided their plots of land with heavy tall hedgerows.

ELA

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2019, 08:36:44 AM »
It was cloudy that day over Kyoto, Nagasaki was secondary.
I think Kokura was primary, Nagasaki was secondary.  I believe Kyoto had been talked out of being a target

Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2019, 08:40:44 AM »
Responsibility for the timing of the second bombing was delegated to Tibbets. Scheduled for August 11 against Kokura, the raid was moved earlier by two days to avoid a five-day period of bad weather forecast to begin on August 10.[

Thanks for the correction.  

At 03:49 on the morning of August 9, 1945, Bockscar, flown by Sweeney's crew, carried Fat Man, with Kokura as the primary target and Nagasaki the secondary target. The mission plan for the second attack was nearly identical to that of the Hiroshima mission, with two B-29s flying an hour ahead as weather scouts and two additional B-29s in Sweeney's flight for instrumentation and photographic support of the mission. Sweeney took off with his weapon already armed but with the electrical safety plugs still engaged.[193]
During pre-flight inspection of Bockscar, the flight engineer notified Sweeney that an inoperative fuel transfer pump made it impossible to use 640 US gallons (2,400 l; 530 imp gal) of fuel carried in a reserve tank. This fuel would still have to be carried all the way to Japan and back, consuming still more fuel. Replacing the pump would take hours; moving the Fat Man to another aircraft might take just as long and was dangerous as well, as the bomb was live. Tibbets and Sweeney therefore elected to have Bockscar continue the mission.[194][195]
This time Penney and Cheshire were allowed to accompany the mission, flying as observers on the third plane, Big Stink, flown by the group's operations officer, Major James I. Hopkins, Jr. Observers aboard the weather planes reported both targets clear. When Sweeney's aircraft arrived at the assembly point for his flight off the coast of Japan, Big Stink failed to make the rendezvous.[193] According to Cheshire, Hopkins was at varying heights including 9,000 feet (2,700 m) higher than he should have been, and was not flying tight circles over Yakushima as previously agreed with Sweeney and Captain Frederick C. Bock, who was piloting the support B-29 The Great Artiste. Instead, Hopkins was flying 40-mile (64 km) dogleg patterns.[196] Though ordered not to circle longer than fifteen minutes, Sweeney continued to wait for Big Stink for forty minutes. Before leaving the rendezvous point, Sweeney consulted Ashworth, who was in charge of the bomb. As commander of the aircraft, Sweeney made the decision to proceed to the primary, the city of Kokura.[197]

At 11:01, a last-minute break in the clouds over Nagasaki allowed Bockscar's bombardier, Captain Kermit Beahan, to visually sight the target as ordered. The Fat Man weapon, containing a core of about 5 kg (11 lb) of plutonium, was dropped over the city's industrial valley. It exploded 47 seconds later at 1,650 ± 33 ft (503 ± 10 m), above a tennis court,[206] halfway between the Mitsubishi Steel and Arms Works in the south and the Nagasaki Arsenal in the north. This was nearly 3 km (1.9 mi) northwest of the planned hypocenter; the blast was confined to the Urakami Valley and a major portion of the city was protected by the intervening hills.[207] The resulting explosion released the equivalent energy of 21 ± 2 kt (87.9 ± 8.4 TJ).[138]Big Stink spotted the explosion from a hundred miles away, and flew over to observe.[208]




Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #25 on: June 06, 2019, 08:42:22 AM »
The two A-bombs were of two different types.  The Hiroshima bomb was simpler and based on U-235 and had never been tested.  The Los Alamos test (Trinity) was of the second type based on plutonium and implosion.  But, I digress.

So, imagine somehow the Allies gain a toehold only at Utah, but the other beaches failed and were withdrawn.  What then?

Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #26 on: June 06, 2019, 08:43:41 AM »



Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #27 on: June 06, 2019, 08:44:58 AM »
The day we visited Utah, we saw a guy with a horse and surrey racing down the beach.


 

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