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Topic: OT - Cable Alternatives

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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #364 on: October 24, 2019, 11:13:25 AM »
Good analysis BW, sounds right to me, aggravating, but right.

CWSooner

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #365 on: October 24, 2019, 11:28:14 AM »
Obviously, anything SEC is going to mean more, so they put their best efforts on that.  All the top tech is developed down here anyway, you know, like the cotton gin. . . .
:57:

Invented by a Yankee, of course.
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utee94

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #366 on: October 24, 2019, 11:30:03 AM »
At first I was going to state that no matter what happens to ESPN's business model (and I think we can all agree that eventually it will have to change), they would never be offered OTA, because they wouldn't have an OTA broadcast station/bandwidth allocation in every geo.

But then I realized that all of the local ABC affiliates COULD broadcast  ESPN as one of those "side channels" and it would be free to all consumers with OTA antenna reception.  I don't know what the regional coverage is of ABC affiliates compared to ESPN's penetration via cable/satellite/streaming service, but I'm sure it's fairly ubiquitous and mostly available.

So then, what sort of business model would enable ESPN actually to capitalize on such a broadcast? Is the commercial model enough to sustain it?  Obviously this would all be occurring in a post-cable-subscriber model universe.  I think a switch to some sort of tailored streaming option is far more likely, but would it ever make sense for ESPN to broadcast OTA as well?  Would they be able to capture enough incremental revenue through that distribution channel (without cannibalizing more profitable distribution methods too much) to make it worthwhile?

That's an interesting thought, one I hadn't really pondered before.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #367 on: October 24, 2019, 12:28:07 PM »
Great question, @utee94 

I don't see a great reason for ESPN to do that. They need to pay large sums to secure the rights to content, and then turning around and providing it free I don't think helps them much... 

In fact, the lack of ESPN content was one of the biggest hindrances to cord-cutting or cord-shaving [not having cable/satellite but streaming live TV]. It was only with the introduction of Sling that ESPN started even engaging with streaming live TV. 

The networks mostly own NFL content [outside of DirecTV Sunday Ticket], which is one way that the networks have been so strong at getting the streaming live TV providers to carry them. ESPN already is strong enough to get the streaming live TV providers to carry them.

But if ESPN was available OTA for free, I'd immediately cancel Hulu Live TV. I wouldn't need it. Thus for ESPN to do it they'd dilute their subscriber base with people who are willing to pay for it but are getting it free.

As for the commercial-supported model, they're already selling commercials on their broadcast. I'm guessing that the value they can charge for commercials doesn't change much by going OTA, so the subscriber revenue loss isn't mitigated by "new" commercial revenue... 

I think as the cable/satellite model gets fractured, they're more likely to offer a standalone streaming service rather than offer it free OTA. 

MaximumSam

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #368 on: October 24, 2019, 12:34:48 PM »
I'm currently internet only and pay for Hulu Live, Netflix, Amazon Prime, and HBO.  There's a good chance I'll get rid of Netflix and HBO at some point in the future.  As streaming options increase, it makes more sense to pay for a month here and there as opposed to continuous service.  This will lead to discounts on long term plans - Disney's new service is already advertising year long and three year long plans.

FearlessF

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #369 on: October 24, 2019, 12:45:47 PM »
ESPN is just one of the major players that understand what they have today, don't know exactly what they will have in the future with streaming or ala carte offerings, they can predict, but aren't sure of the revenue stream.

So, they dig their heals in with the FCC to keep the current "CATV" model alive.

now, if Netflix were to purchase rights to sports programming........
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #370 on: October 24, 2019, 12:55:01 PM »
now, if Netflix were to purchase rights to sports programming........
Netflix hasn't that I'm aware of, but Amazon and Twitter both experimented with this for Thursday Night Football... Small players like Pluto TV have gotten into long-tail sporting events that wouldn't normally make it to ESPN/FoxSports or the networks.

As with anything else, content is king, and live sports content is the king of live content. 

I'd be shocked if some of these entities aren't mulling it over.

Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #371 on: October 24, 2019, 01:36:39 PM »
I'd like to see more Australian Rules Football.

FearlessF

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #372 on: October 24, 2019, 01:41:32 PM »
I'd recommend youtube
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HawkFrenzy

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #373 on: October 24, 2019, 01:46:12 PM »
I've heard rumors that Amazon may get the Sunday NFL ticket. The reality is there since they are already showing Thursday games. Still, imagine the cash grab on that one, "you're game is blacked out? Well for 4.99 you can watch it live." I am a chord cutter and I do miss watching college games but if the trend will be to have them on Amazon, I am all for it. I will also say that since I cut the chord, I save over 100 per month since, like someone else said, I already had Netflix and Amazon Prime. Also keep in mind, I am older than most so listening on iHeart radio is not a lot different than when I had to listen to them on the radio back in the day. Sometimes it's even better, I can always catch the highlights later. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #374 on: October 24, 2019, 02:26:23 PM »
I've heard rumors that Amazon may get the Sunday NFL ticket. The reality is there since they are already showing Thursday games. Still, imagine the cash grab on that one, "you're game is blacked out? Well for 4.99 you can watch it live." I am a chord cutter and I do miss watching college games but if the trend will be to have them on Amazon, I am all for it. I will also say that since I cut the chord, I save over 100 per month since, like someone else said, I already had Netflix and Amazon Prime. Also keep in mind, I am older than most so listening on iHeart radio is not a lot different than when I had to listen to them on the radio back in the day. Sometimes it's even better, I can always catch the highlights later.
I can see it. With AT&T seemingly looking at de-emphasizing of the satellite TV market or potentially spinning off DirecTV's satellite business, I could easily see rights being up in the air. And the NFL would probably be able to license games to a bigger fish with more subscribers. Amazon Prime has 101M subscribers in the US and DirecTV has 21M households (according to the googles anyway).

That would be a very strong move by Amazon.

I wonder how they'd price it. I have to think it's so valuable that it would be hard to just "include" it in your Prime subscription by default. And I'm not sure how much the NFL controls how it is priced to end users, or whether they just sell the rights. I'm pretty sure DirecTV never allowed individual games to be sold or Sunday Ticket to be only single-weekend availability, though. I wonder if Amazon could bring something like that to the table, as you suggest.

FYI this Forbes article suggests it's more than just rumors... https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonogus/2019/04/23/the-nfl-is-reportedly-in-discussions-with-amazon-and-disney-for-the-sunday-ticket-streaming-rights/#2f5176f3609b

Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #375 on: October 24, 2019, 02:36:49 PM »
How much will this cell phone "5G" thing change anything?




FearlessF

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #376 on: October 24, 2019, 02:57:09 PM »
it's just more bandwidth

like going from 3G to 4G

Since most cell providers have data caps, it doesn't seem reasonable to use your cell phone as a hot spot to stream video

only on occasions such as the weekend on the yacht

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #377 on: October 24, 2019, 03:06:55 PM »
How much will this cell phone "5G" thing change anything?
Agreed with @FearlessF -- except if residential 5G becomes a thing.

Right now the only feasible way to get home internet is cable, DSL, or fiber. The problem there is that the infrastructure of wiring to every house makes it hard to have competition. Once a neighborhood is wired up with one vendor, other vendors don't want to invest the money to wire up that neighborhood knowing that they're going to have to compete on price for home broadband. So in my area, for example, I have ridiculously expensive cable internet through Cox, or I have 3 Mbps (yes, that's SLOOOOW) DSL through AT&T. Which means I only have Cox as a choice. 

The goal with 5G is that because it's higher bandwidth, it may be feasible to put a single cell site in a neighborhood and be capable of serving ALL the homes in that neighborhood with broadband. Thus fixed costs are reduced, and ROI goes up. At that point it might be feasible for someone to come in to my neighborhood and compete with Cox. 

That said, as it relates to TV? I don't think it'll change much. I don't think 5G residential internet will be cost-effective in the rural areas which are today underserved by broadband, so I don't think it'll meaningfully increase broadband adoption, which nearly everyone already has. And it's a competitor to cable broadband, but not necessarily to cable TV, so it may damage cable companies ability to bundle and/or punish people like me who won't bundle. 

But I think the effects on the TV market are secondary to the effects on the broadband market. 

 

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